Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:Oof now we have ice even down to LI

This run improved aloft. Maybe that is a sign.

Much improved aloft.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:39 pm

EURO snow map

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 8 Snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr162

by **jimv45** Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:41 pm

Yea Doc, there is going to be a lot of cold air sitting just to our north, if not all snow the dreaded ice comes into play up here with temps in the 20s with the forecast as of now.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:45 pm

Maybe not huge changes but def positive changes

by Carvin Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:46 pm

So frank next means u giving up i thought it was gonna be a windshield wiper effect i think all models will come around to the. Way they looked 7 days out

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:46 pm

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:55 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:Oof now we have ice even down to LI

This run improved aloft. Maybe that is a sign.

Much improved aloft.

I was on tidbits looking at 500mb maps as the Euro run was coming in. Looked like an all out snow track. Upper levels improved from last nights run. Bottomline, don't worry about thermal levels 5+ days out. At this point in time we are going to see different outcomes with surface maps regarding snow, ice or rain. Hopefully by Wednesday or Thursday we can hone in on a solution. As long as the ensembles stand firm we are in good shape.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:59 pm

Mike the Warmicist of course would jump in with the placid MJO wave showing warmth in phase 4-5 and saying we'll be AN next weekend. Mike will you learn that a weak MJO wave will not drive the pattern with a weak Nino forcing and PV Split with a vortex landing in SE/Hudson Bay CAN?? Not to mention a Negative EAMT that may just drive this on the edge of the COD in these phases?? Get the rose colored orange glasses off of warmth. Also, the MJO plots have been horrendous this year.

As per Ventrice on WSI - this map is LR and this is what we will be heading to.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 8 Dw48SBhXcAc4vEL

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 8 Dw48SBhXcAc4vEL

The pattern has changed and did so on ~1/10 and will be a 45-60 day cycle, most past patterns have the same cycle period - not all cycle's periods are brutal cold and snowy but most have been cold with many opportunities for snow - once we lock in which it is trying to do we'll reap the its benefits.

On the storm - you guys have to chill with the OP runs and look at ENS and 500mb set ups over the Upper NA continent and the PAC set up not just the WC but farther out - why - that is where our energies are coming from for this. Reading through these posts is like teh highs lows of my teenage students with tehir grades!!

Friday's storm clipper will determine the fate of this and where the boundary sets up for this low pressure to follow.
SYO is being smart by taking a hiatus - KUDOS to you James!!

by **billg315** Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:09 pm

Speaking of Friday's storm . . . That one could be sneaky. Coming in at night with temps at or below freezing and the 850 temp projections stay below freezing for most of the area throughout the bulk of the precip. Wouldn't be surprised to see us dealing with some accumulating snow at rush hour Friday A.M. before ending as a bit of rain mid-morning.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Scott no mixed signal now and rays silence says it all hiding lol

Stop it. This better be a joke. Hes not hiding. He said he was going to have a detailed synopsis. I guarantee he will if not today by the am.

For real? A joking comment (like no one has done worse right?), I know he will and he is very smart, I was kinda concerned he may be rethinking but yes it was soft hearted. Sorry if it came off hostile.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I have to be mindful of posters who live much further north and have a chance to get crushed from this system.

That looks good for NYC north no? The 32 line is just south. Any ice maps, for some reason I am getting a error from weatherbell, they should extend my subscription by a day.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:41 pm

aiannone wrote:

MOG!!! That is a crushing ice storm power would be lost everywhere, I always said I wanted to experience a ice storm but maybe not one like that!!!

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
MOG!!! That is a crushing ice storm power would be lost everywhere, I always said I wanted to experience a ice storm but maybe not one like that!!!

of course things can change but do you think this storm will be similar to the super storm of 93 I remember in the morning we had heavy snow then it changed to heavy sleet for a couple hours then back to snow

by **algae888** Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:04 pm

Eps trended warmer but I'm hearing that it's skewed by a few cutters that head towards Chicago and Detroit. The majority are similar to The operational or even southeast of it. I don't have individual members.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:11 pm

While I haven’t yet had a chance to sit down and look deeply at things for myself regarding the potential storm this weekend, something to keep in mind is the seemingly routine (and non-negligeable) left-track bias with our winter events thus far this season across most guidance at this lead time. I cannot yet say whether I believe that is in play again due my lack of analysis, but it is something to at least consider. My own deeper thoughts will be provided in due course.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:19 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
MOG!!! That is a crushing ice storm power would be lost everywhere, I always said I wanted to experience a ice storm but maybe not one like that!!!
of course things can change but do you think this storm will be similar to the super storm of 93 I remember in the morning we had heavy snow then it changed to heavy sleet for a couple hours then back to snow

that's freezing rain not sleet!! Sleet is ok 2 inches of ice on everything goodbye trees and power for along time. Verbatim and I find it hard to believe such a ice storm would hit such a significant area.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:20 pm

algae888 wrote:Eps trended warmer but I'm hearing that it's skewed by a few cutters that head towards Chicago and Detroit. The majority are similar to The operational or even southeast of it. I don't have individual members.

if weatherbell would start working I could post them. I dunno what's up with their site. Anyone else having issues?

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:21 pm

algae888 wrote:Eps trended warmer but I'm hearing that it's skewed by a few cutters that head towards Chicago and Detroit. The majority are similar to The operational or even southeast of it. I don't have individual members.

Even though the soln may seem warmer the overall the mean center is about the same. Some of the solns at or just S&E of the BM came closer to the mean, and There are a few outlying true GL cutters that skew it warmer even though the mean is still essentially the same. This doesnt mean that we wont trend more with 5.5 days left.