Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

[billg315]

I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC.  Or is that because it's too far out?

This coming 5-7 day period is pretty warm, or at least normal-to-above. It’s the week beyond that where there is good potential for below normal, colder air to set up shop for a few days.

[jmanley32]

I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC.  Or is that because it's too far out?

This coming 5-7 day period is pretty warm, or at least normal-to-above. It’s the week beyond that where there is good potential for below normal, colder air to set up shop for a few days.

Can the coastal areas or even 15-20 miles inland see any meaningful snow, i mean yes it has happened but with day light savings and sun angle I would think it would have to all fall at night and be heavy. Honestly I would rather spring come, but if we can get one really good storm I will wait. Hoping by april we go into full spring.

[skinsfan1177]

Wowzaa
a PNA

[amugs]

This is a nice signal for next week this far out.

[aiannone]

GFS has been consistent on popping a little low up on Monday. Euro has it too albeit a bit weaker

[heehaw453]

I think that clipper is the best shot at a few inches before snow books are closed for most. It appears there will be an ocean storm but well offshore for the 3/20-3/21 time frame, but I'd give that a few days though before completely dismissing it as we all know how reliable models are at this range.

[billg315]

GFS has been consistent on popping a little low up on Monday. Euro has it too albeit a bit weaker

Yeah I've been watching that too. That Clipper may produce some snow, but I'm keeping my enthusiasm in check because Clippers traditionally underperform anyway, and adding to that, unfortunately temps don't appear to be that cold and it looks like a daytime event. At this time of year that probably equals some wet snow on the grass and wet pavements. I doubt the snow with that clipper will get heavy enough to overcome sun angle issues.

Heehaw is right about the 20-21. It bears watching because it does look like something tries to organize off the coast around then -- and we will have (somewhat) cold air in place -- but the current guidance keeps the development well off the coast.

[heehaw453]

That ocean storm is interesting for 3/21-ish.  

Ridge in west is too far east, but trough tilt looking better as it tries to back up the flow towards the coast. The energy shown here is just too far off the coast to have significant impact here.  But you'd notice a much more northerly movement with that tilt. Just get that energy about 200 miles closer to coast which to me is about consolidation of the energy and don't string it out like it being shown now on most guidance.

[skinsfan1177]

That ocean storm is interesting for 3/21-ish.  

Ridge in west is too far east, but trough tilt looking better as it tries to back up the flow towards the coast. The energy shown here is just too far off the coast to have significant impact here.  But you'd notice a much more northerly movement with that tilt.  Just get that energy about 200 miles closer to coast which to me is about consolidation of the energy and don't string it out like it being shown now on most guidance.

Also there could be work can be done with that Ridge at West sharpen it up a little bit to

[billg315]

Monday Clipper is still a possibility, but the only place I think you'd have any actual accumulation might be in the Hudson Valley. Elsewhere I think any snow that falls will mostly melt on contact as it is a daytime event with temps at or above freezing for many.

Problem right now with the 20-21st is, it looks like High Pressure sets up perfectly to keep the northern energy to our north and force the southern energy out to sea. Odds don't look good for that event now.

After next Wednesday, it looks like most of the area doesn't drop below freezing again at night before we head into April. Spring is fast approaching.

[heehaw453]

Monday Clipper is still a possibility, but the only place I think you'd have any actual accumulation might be in the Hudson Valley. Elsewhere I think any snow that falls will mostly melt on contact as it is a daytime event with temps at or above freezing for many.

Problem right now with the 20-21st is, it looks like High Pressure sets up perfectly to keep the northern energy to our north and force the southern energy out to sea. Odds don't look good for that event now.

After next Wednesday, it looks like most of the area doesn't drop below freezing again at night before we head into April. Spring is fast approaching.

Any coastal storm on the 3/20 is looking very bleak right now. I agree a post mortem on the winter is coming soon. When does board have winter grades thread? Very nice to see different perspectives on it. After that it will be hibernation for me until winter decides to come back to us.

[docstox12]

It sure as heck not going to repeat last March from what I am seeing.Maybe a surprise 2 or 3 inch event in there before the party ends.At this juncture, I'm around 10 inches short of normal up here so I have this winter as a D.

[amugs]

Monday Clipper is still a possibility, but the only place I think you'd have any actual accumulation might be in the Hudson Valley. Elsewhere I think any snow that falls will mostly melt on contact as it is a daytime event with temps at or above freezing for many.

Problem right now with the 20-21st is, it looks like High Pressure sets up perfectly to keep the northern energy to our north and force the southern energy out to sea. Odds don't look good for that event now.

After next Wednesday, it looks like most of the area doesn't drop below freezing again at night before we head into April. Spring is fast approaching.

Any coastal storm on the 3/20 is looking very bleak right now.  I agree a post mortem on the winter is coming soon.  When does board have winter grades thread?  Very nice to see different perspectives on it.  After that it will be hibernation for me until winter decides to come back to us.

I concur - with no blocking just the PNA alone isnt going to do it. No N NAO or AO help. And yes e do have a Post Mortem Grade the winter thread we''l start next week.

[dkodgis]

Yesterday it reached 72, and it was a glorious day

It was all for naught for in a dream last night, CP appeared at a Pharaoh of ancient Egypt stating "So let it be written, so let it be said ('Damian, are you writing this?') that winter is over-and I am exiling myself to my spring retreat until the next flake".

[dkodgis]

Hmmm...I’m hearing chatter that this coming Thurs eve could become...interesting?

[Frank_Wx]

Hmmm...I’m hearing chatter that this coming Thurs eve could become...interesting?

You're not wrong. But it looks more wet than white. But your area specifically could see some snow. We'll keep an eye on it

[Frank_Wx]

The pattern next week looks quite warm. +NAO/-PNA...bring it on

[dkodgis]

I am going to guess, uneducatedly, that because ocean temps are warmer than usual we will see a warmer spring.  Maybe it is because of a -PNA too. What do the great minds of the board see coming?

[amugs]

21-22nd looking interesting for NWNJ and HV at this time. NYC no and metro area but could be a spring snow for the other areas. Accumulated snows all depend on various factors but plenty of cold air to tap to th North in SE Can.

[aiannone]

Euro is quite interesting for Friday

[frank 638]

Euro is quite interesting for Friday

Lee Goldberg did say Thursday we are having a coastal storm with a raw windy rainy conditions for the coast possibly mixed with wet snow in the interior

[algae888]

Hear is Upton take on Thursday night and through Friday coastal system.....

The current forecast is calling for all rain Thursday into
Thursday night with a possible mix of snow early Thursday
morning across western portions of Orange County should the
precipitation arrive early enough. This would not amount to
much. The concern is that should a more amplified, dynamic
system be closer to the coast, flags for a heavy wet snow event
will need to be raised. The good news though is that we are not
there yet.

[algae888]

The good news is we are only a tick or two away from a major Coastal storm. If that 2nd shortwave over Ontario phases in 6 to 12 hours earlier it would be a paste bomb for us

[algae888]

There are several gefs members with a sub 990 low at the benchmark the euro is 978 just east of Cape Cod but phases too late last night and today's runs are the first run showing this so is this a trend or just a blip we shall see

[algae888]

Also we have to watch early next week after a brief warm up this weekend with temperatures around 60 which is not too far above normal there's going to be some bitterly cold air just to our North pressing down as a closed low rolls across the South Central US. winter does not want to give up even though many of us think it never started

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Also we have to watch early next week after a brief warm up this weekend with temperatures around 60 which is not too far above normal there's going to be some bitterly cold air just to our North pressing down as a closed low rolls across the South Central US. winter does not want to give up even though many of us think it never started

A high of 60 is about 10 degrees above normal this time of year Al, and that's in the urban areas. Lets not push winter out any faster than we have to. Like you say, it feels like it never really got going.

Anyway I appreciate the update on the upcoming possibilities. I had almost begun my hibernation a tad to early. Hoping for one of the famous Al 4:00am alerts that things are trending positively. I've missed those this year.

[amugs]

JB's map and it is a horse hair away from shifting that blue SE.
This has the marking of a major Nor'easter and we need a quicker phase to bomb this out for us from NYC and NNJ into LHV.

Massive ridge over the Rockies


Also watch out for teh 28-29th time frame for another possible coastal and interior paste job

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