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Long Range Thread 18.0

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:30 pm

rb924119 wrote:Don’t look now, but the EURO Op and Control show some light breaking through the current abyss. Just sayin’.......Wink some discussion is better than none, no?
Yep I see the 10 day threat on the Euro. Way out in fantasy land but at least its not a cutter like the models have portrayed all winter.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:23 pm

Look at 2/6-7 storm it's there. Need that NAO and 50/50 block as we have said all winter and we'll be dancing

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:34 pm

amugs wrote:Look at 2/6-7 storm it's there. Need that NAO and 50/50 block as we have said all winter and we'll be dancing

The 1/22 storm looked good
The 1/29 storm looked good
The 2/3 storm looked good.
Before that tons of storms looked good
The pattern and storms are coming in about a week(since early December). Except it never happens

Not
Pickingnon you and your eternal optimism Mugsy but time to give it up.
Love ya

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:56 pm

Time to not come out of hibernation yet  Jim.Someone woke you too soon LOL!!
Smooches back at you Jimmy and get cozy till March 15th roll's in for ya LOL!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:00 pm

I do understand what Jim is saying long range had showed blocking and it never pans out keeps getting pushed back but like mugsy I believe something got to give. Let's go saddle up!
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:49 pm


That concern has to be there at this point.  I wouldn't be shocked to see February skunk us too.  And for the most part this meteorological winter is bad area wide for this forum.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:40 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
That concern has to be there at this point.  I wouldn't be shocked to see February skunk us too.  And for the most part this meteorological winter is bad area wide for this forum.

Yes February for our entire area is the shortest yet snowiest month historically. However 3 of the last 4 years March has been the snowiest month.

WTS, I don't expect either month to deliver.

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:22 pm

I know it's been a very frustrating winter but the look on today's ensembles are the best I've seen so far this winter. That negative Nao finally looks legit as Heights will be building within the next 5 days and only get stronger from there. The 18 z GEFS also tries to pop a positive PNA the look on the ensembles really suggest a major winter storm. Mjo looks to be heading towards 8 and one . Let's see if we can salvage something this winter
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Post by mwilli5783 Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:41 pm

algae and everybody in here i would take anything right now if there's a major storm on the horizon (fingers crossed)

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:59 pm

Okay from Isotherm that we see the transition amto a HighbLatitude block regime and better harmimous PAC as a result of the rosy wave or westward win burst at the dateline and just east forecasted and happening. This will cause the SOI to drop and cattlemprod the PAC as well for a better EPO and PNA couplet. Indices and end will transition to see g this so if they take a step back dot FREAK OUT!! 
Here is the map he posted. Look at the red colors and that is the wave going to phase 8 and then to 1 possibly. There is no resistance yet in the PAC to keep the wave from dying off but should be proposed by the convective warm water in phase 8 through 3. Well see with that?
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Uwnd850.cfs.eqtr

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:35 pm

Wow, i literally read amugs post and feel like he's speaking in an alien tongue.

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:02 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Don’t look now, but the EURO Op and Control show some light breaking through the current abyss. Just sayin’.......Wink some discussion is better than none, no?
Yep I see the 10 day threat on the Euro. Way out in fantasy land but at least its not a cutter like the models have portrayed all winter.
Where are you guys looking? None of the Euro ensemble members or 00z or 12z show any snow of sig, in the 10 day. Am I looking at something wrong?
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:03 am

Irish wrote:Wow, i literally read amugs post and feel like he's speaking in an alien tongue.

Unfortunately, Tom (the author of the post mugs quoted) doesn’t l visit our family here too often anymore, but if you would have been here when he was a more frequent poster you would have quickly learned that’s just Tom ahaha you need a dictionary on hand when he posts, as well as a seasoned meteorology translator lmao I have a couple of pending posts that I want to get to, and will add this one to the list (if somebody doesn’t get to it first). I’m hoping to be able to sit down later tomorrow and catch up a bit, though lol

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:38 am

amugs wrote:Okay from Isotherm that we see the transition amto a HighbLatitude block regime and better harmimous PAC as a result of the rosy wave or westward win burst at the dateline and just east forecasted and happening. This will cause the SOI to drop and cattlemprod the PAC as well for a better EPO and PNA couplet. Indices and end will transition to see g this so if they take a step back dot FREAK OUT!! 
Here is the map he posted. Look at the red colors and that is the wave going to phase 8 and then to 1 possibly. There is no resistance yet in the PAC to keep the wave from dying off but should be proposed by the convective warm water in phase 8 through 3. Well see with that?
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Uwnd850.cfs.eqtr

Lee Goldberg has temps in the 40's and 50's next week with possible rain on Wednesday.That would burn the first week of February.How does that relate to what you just posted here Mugsy?
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:31 am

docstox12 wrote:
Lee Goldberg has temps in the 40's and 50's next week with possible rain on Wednesday.That would burn the first week of February.How does that relate to what you just posted here Mugsy?

So, there is def a disparity b/w what Mugsy is sayin' and what the projections are showin'. But, I've seen Mugs be a lot more right than computers and their human spoke-folk before...so I'm just gonna sit back and watch what happens.

In Mugs We Trust!

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:21 am

1st week of February is toast. If we don’t get blocking to develop in right spot then most likely cutters will continue and then we’re done. Maybe a nickel/dime event if well timed. Skepticism reins supreme at this point.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:24 am

docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay from Isotherm that we see the transition amto a HighbLatitude block regime and better harmimous PAC as a result of the rosy wave or westward win burst at the dateline and just east forecasted and happening. This will cause the SOI to drop and cattlemprod the PAC as well for a better EPO and PNA couplet. Indices and end will transition to see g this so if they take a step back dot FREAK OUT!! 
Here is the map he posted. Look at the red colors and that is the wave going to phase 8 and then to 1 possibly. There is no resistance yet in the PAC to keep the wave from dying off but should be proposed by the convective warm water in phase 8 through 3. Well see with that?
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Uwnd850.cfs.eqtr

Lee Goldberg has temps in the 40's and 50's next week with possible rain on Wednesday.That would burn the first week of February.How does that relate to what you just posted here Mugsy?

In short Doc, as Ive been noting the MJO in the warm phases have been consistently offering the resistance to the more favorable factors(results of the strat warming event that has led us to have a large piece of the PV on our side of the hemisphere). Sum of all moving parts. Since we are still in those warm phases, and have been since mid month, as soon as the pattern relaxes, those effects come right back. That is why we rebound from extreme cold back to 40's-50's and rain again by next week. Like the rubber band effect. But in English Mugsys posts is saying that there should be a continued eastward progression through the warm phases to the cold phases and or at least the amplitude of noted MJO wave should diminish such that the other factors should become more favorable again to launch the cold. With both GEFS and Euro completely diff in their prediction for the MJO wave at the moment I hesitate to be any more optimistic as to say I feel confident we see the cold push back again but will it result in a more favorable outcome, or do we quickly recycle yet again back into warm phases of the MJO with amplitude resulting in the storm track in close to the coast and our area warm sectored?

The SOI is another area that we likely need to see switch around. This too is discussed above. The SOI with the exception of brief intervals has remained neutral to even La Nina like. In short the SOI is a measure of the relative pressure differences between Darwin Australia and Tahit which in turn gives us an indicator of the equatorial trade winds. Positive state of the SOI then the trades flow from east to west(easterly) La Nina state, negative SOI indicates the trades flowing more west to east (westerly)El nino state. Although we are supposed to be in a weak El Nino the SOI really has never indicatd this. This has been a direct result of the MJO in the crappy phases. Phases 3-5 indicate lower pressure near the Darwin Australia region. If low pressure there(due to persistent MJO pulses) and HP(relatively speaking) to the east in Tahiti the net flow along the equator is from HP to LP, or from east to west (easterly/La Nina like. Again a resistance to the pattern results in our neck of the woods as result. The image above andwhat Mugs says Tom is saying is that hopefully there will be a westerly wind burst, ie: the MJO relaxes and or moves east changing the pressure differences which allow the trades to stwich to a westerly component. The result of this will remove some of the resistance we have in our neck of the woods. While optimism is there I hesitate to believe it just yet until I see what happens with this MJO pulse.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:36 am

sroc4 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay from Isotherm that we see the transition amto a HighbLatitude block regime and better harmimous PAC as a result of the rosy wave or westward win burst at the dateline and just east forecasted and happening. This will cause the SOI to drop and cattlemprod the PAC as well for a better EPO and PNA couplet. Indices and end will transition to see g this so if they take a step back dot FREAK OUT!! 
Here is the map he posted. Look at the red colors and that is the wave going to phase 8 and then to 1 possibly. There is no resistance yet in the PAC to keep the wave from dying off but should be proposed by the convective warm water in phase 8 through 3. Well see with that?
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Uwnd850.cfs.eqtr

Lee Goldberg has temps in the 40's and 50's next week with possible rain on Wednesday.That would burn the first week of February.How does that relate to what you just posted here Mugsy?

In short Doc, as Ive been noting the MJO in the warm phases have been consistently offering the resistance to the more favorable factors(results of the strat warming event that has led us to have a large piece of the PV on our side of the hemisphere).  Sum of all moving parts.  Since we are still in those warm phases, and have been since mid month, as soon as the pattern relaxes, those effects come right back.  That is why we rebound from extreme cold back to 40's-50's and rain again by next week.  Like the rubber band effect.  But in English Mugsys posts is saying that there should be a continued eastward progression through the warm phases to the cold phases and or at least the amplitude of noted MJO wave should diminish such that the other factors should become more favorable again to launch the cold.  With both GEFS and Euro completely diff in their prediction for the MJO wave at the moment I hesitate to be any more optimistic as to say I feel confident we see the cold push back again but will it result in a more favorable outcome, or do we quickly recycle yet again back into warm phases of the MJO with amplitude resulting in the storm track in close to the coast and our area warm sectored?

The SOI is another area that we likely need to see switch around.  This too is discussed above.  The SOI with the exception of brief intervals has remained neutral to even La Nina like.  In short the SOI is a measure of the relative pressure differences between Darwin Australia and Tahit which in turn gives us an indicator of the equatorial trade winds.  Positive state of the SOI then the trades flow from east to west(easterly) La Nina state, negative SOI indicates the trades flowing more west to east (westerly)El nino state.  Although we are supposed to be in a weak El Nino the SOI really has never indicatd this.  This has been a direct result of the MJO in the crappy phases.  Phases 3-5 indicate lower pressure near the Darwin Australia region.  If low pressure there(due to persistent MJO pulses) and HP(relatively speaking) to the east in Tahiti the net flow along the equator is from HP to LP, or from east to west (easterly/La Nina like.  Again a resistance to the pattern results in our neck of the woods as  result.   The image above andwhat Mugs says Tom is saying is that hopefully there will be a westerly wind burst, ie: the MJO relaxes and or moves east changing the pressure differences which allow the trades to stwich to a westerly component.  The result of this will remove some of the resistance we have in our neck of the woods.  While optimism is there I hesitate to believe it just yet until I see what happens with this MJO pulse.  

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small

Do you think MJO going into 8 stops the cutter trajectory or do we need that coupled with The right blocking setup? There really hasn’t been one BM nor’easter this winter.

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Guest Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:40 am

Here in plain English. After this brief 2 day visit from the polar vortex we warm up this weekend to near normal temps.

Then next week we are treated to 2 GLC’s with temps in the mid 40’s and rain bringing us to at least February 10th with no more than a couple of coatings IN THE LAST 3 MONTHS for most of the board.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:30 am

syosnow94 wrote:Here in plain English. After this brief 2 day visit from the polar vortex we warm up this weekend to near normal temps.

Then next week we are treated to 2 GLC’s with temps in the mid 40’s and rain bringing us to at least February 10th with no more than a couple of coatings IN THE LAST 3 MONTHS for most of the board.

Frank Deleted Math's Dec 15th poll, which we all know started the downward spiral of this winter, a few days ago. It is scientific fact that there is a two week lag time between deleting an item on a weather forum that was a hex on all pattern changes, and the actual pattern change itself. Based on the day that Frank deleted the thread, we will change to a cold and snowy pattern sometime between Feb 8th and Feb 12th.

That my friend is scientific fact and will happen, take it to the bank.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:59 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Here in plain English. After this brief 2 day visit from the polar vortex we warm up this weekend to near normal temps.

Then next week we are treated to 2 GLC’s with temps in the mid 40’s and rain bringing us to at least February 10th with no more than a couple of coatings IN THE LAST 3 MONTHS for most of the board.

Frank Deleted Math's Dec 15th poll, which we all know started the downward spiral of this winter, a few days ago. It is scientific fact that there is a two week lag time between deleting an item on a weather forum that was a hex on all pattern changes, and the actual pattern change itself. Based on the day that Frank deleted the thread, we will change to a cold and snowy pattern sometime between Feb 8th and Feb 12th.

That my friend is scientific fact and will happen, take it to the bank.

Good one.

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:08 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
Do you think MJO going into 8 stops the cutter trajectory or do we need that coupled with The right blocking setup?  There really hasn’t been one BM nor’easter this winter.


IF, and thats a big IF we can get the MJO into phase 8 then yes I do think we can stop the current storm track too far west for our areas.  Will there be other factors that go against us then?? Dont know yet, but phase 8 drastically improves our odds. Its actually the phase 8 that helps the high lat blocking to develop.

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Guest Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:06 pm

Next week. PRIME SNOW TIME HISTORICALLY

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 C0d9e510

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:16 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Next week. PRIME SNOW TIME HISTORICALLY

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 19 C0d9e510

LOL! 60 is quite possible for some on Tuesday.

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Post by oldtimer Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:32 pm

Today on TWC the expert stated that the NWS backed off on the prediction two weeks ago of a very cold and snowy February He showed the PV was to stay locked over eastern half of the country. No more Retreating way north to Canada. The jet becomes W to E on the northern border Same result Very mild and wet

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