NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 18.0

+48
Roger92
Quietace
GreyBeard
mmanisca
oldtimer
Dunnzoo
Irish
snowday111
brownie
Grselig
Zhukov1945
Snow88
crippo84
bobjohnsonforthehall
Scullybutcher
dkodgis
Smitty623
snowlover 12345
heehaw453
dsix85
jimv45
Math23x7
sroc4
aiannone
Vinnydula
Sanchize06
SENJsnowman
emokid51783
HectorO
lglickman1
Carvin
nutleyblizzard
SoulSingMG
hyde345
docstox12
amugs
algae888
Radz
CPcantmeasuresnow
skinsfan1177
billg315
rb924119
weatherwatchermom
mwilli5783
jmanley32
adamfitz1969
frank 638
Frank_Wx
52 posters

Page 34 of 36 Previous  1 ... 18 ... 33, 34, 35, 36  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:35 am

Agree Scott. If any snowfall happens this weekend it will be minor.

The 15th-20th period does look interesting. At that point it is mid-March. I would not expect anything too nuts.

No Godzilla this winter Sad Sad Sad

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:00 pm

This could be the last hurrah for this winter if this comes to fruition as stated above
EPS harping on this PNA spike and Deep trough over the EC for this 15th -20th period - but we have sun angle etc to fight off

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Image.thumb.png.347d7ea1d84264e3c27417352f648164


amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:38 pm

amugs wrote:Green Snow? If this happens th elikly hood goes up!
And where the hell where you all winter - OY VEY!!
Oh and before this Friday and next Tuesdayish

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 D0vPA_wWsAAGv93


Mugs I didnt even see you had this posted yetserday. Great minds

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Green Snow? If this happens th elikly hood goes up!
And where the hell where you all winter - OY VEY!!
Oh and before this Friday and next Tuesdayish

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 D0vPA_wWsAAGv93


Mugs I didnt even see you had this posted yetserday.  Great minds

Scott NP my man - the Italian connection!!
When everyone was going crazy about the storm I saw this and said HMMMMMM this look like we can get ourselves one more before CP goes into hibernation!! Laughing Laughing Laughing

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:11 pm

I see big differences in the 500mb look for Saturday in the GFS vs the Nam. Nam builds a much higher steeper ridge over the northern rockies and high plains than the does much flatter GFS. As a result Nam gives much colder air to work with. And a little more storm, too.

Will try to diagram what I am seeing. Have a small window of time here to do this...brb I hope...

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:14 pm

Let’s start with the GFS...it has no storm and if anything rain thru most of coastal NJ.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Rb9sp5

But most of the models show some kind of light precip over southern NJ for late Friday evening/early Sat morning.

Despite the 540 mb line being located well to the south, the GFS still shows mixing issues at the coast.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 2jd26nt

And this is supported by a look at 2m air temps...right warm on the coast.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Rax6o7


The big question for me is, why does the GFS again have a very warm look for southern NJ?

And, I think answer lie in the fact that as a nice would-be blocking high moves out to sea on Friday, the sourcing of the air switches from cold West-Canada air to warm SW CONUS air, thus bringing surface temps above freezing.

Let's start the analysis with a look at what our air source looks like right now on the GFS. Notice the high pressure center sittin dead in the middle of the country.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 2hfqlhw

And as a result, we are enjoying very cold air at the moment. Perhaps even the coldest air presently on the planet!

The 500mb look shows how nicely the arctic air is getting diverted right towards the NE:

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Nq652r

Notice how the high is keeping that warmer air flowing to our south.

And our present 2m temps reflect this.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 14ni9hu

Now look at the same guidance as the system approaches.
At the surface, we see the HP once again centered in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean (far right of the pic, east of OBX).

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Epf7cz

And now look at our air source...it's no longer Arctic by any stretch. It's actually cool Pac NW air that is warmed as it is dragged thru the warmer climates and then briefly cooled up north. But you can also clearly that without that high pressure, the warm air to the south easily commingles with the mildy cold air source.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 2iuiix

That is a warm look..from the GFS.

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:51 pm

And now look at the NAM surface map for Sat 00z. What's that HP center doing in Kalamazoo? And lookey how it splits the airflow, keeping the tri-state area under a Canadian air source.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 2ahu0z8

Looking at the 500 level, notice how far north the air source climbs through cold air, before then of course, diving right back down thru that same cold as it descends our way.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Scrfih

And so, of course we get a colder surface solution.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 14iip1s

Also a wider precip shield...maybe due to more extreme air temps mixing at the frontal boundary?

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by GreyBeard Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:11 pm

"And as a result, we are enjoying very cold air at the moment. Perhaps even the coldest air presently on the planet!"


Where are you posting from, Antarctica? Suspect

GreyBeard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 725
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:20 pm

GreyBeard wrote:"And as a result, we are enjoying very cold air at the moment. Perhaps even the coldest air presently on the planet!"


Where are you posting from, Antarctica? Suspect

Nope.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 2w738mc

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by GreyBeard Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:25 pm

There's a big difference between the most below average and the coldest air on the planet, don't you think?

GreyBeard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 725
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:35 pm

"Below-Average U.S. Temperatures Among the Coldest in World Right Now
The arctic cold temperatures in the U.S. are some of the coldest temperatures globally right now."

Posted DIRECTLY above your last quote, Graybeard.

One of thing I've learned (admittedly the hard way) is how hard it can be to graciously bow out of a failed mission.

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by GreyBeard Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:52 pm

Time to take a bow then
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Screen13

https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php

GreyBeard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 725
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:31 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Time to take a bow then
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Screen13

https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php
gonna have to side with greybeard here in terms of how you put it SENJ, below normal isnt the same as colest temperatures, your very smart I read your analysis so I do not quite understand why you would have written that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:32 pm

GreyBeard wrote:There's a big difference between the most below average and the coldest air on the planet, don't you think?
100% correct. Not sure how that could be mistaken even by a novice which neither of you are.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:Time to take a bow then
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Screen13

https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php
gonna have to side with greybeard here in terms of how you put it SENJ, below normal isnt the same as colest temperatures, your very smart I read your analysis so I do not quite understand why you would have written that.

Appreciate that jman.

These words are written clearly on the bottom of that headline:

"Below-Average U.S. Temperatures Among the Coldest in World Right Now
The arctic cold temperatures in the U.S. are some of the coldest temperatures globally right now.
"

So, yeah, if you ONLY look at the headline, it's misleading. But if you look at all of the info on the graphic, it says exactly what I said it says.

I'm equally as perplexed as why that is hard to see/read/grasp/separate from the headline. ???

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:16 pm

Speaking about the long range, it is always Viva Las Vegas kind of thing. We can get snow of course and it can be intense, or we can uncover the deck furniture on April 15 and go for it. Here is my question: in a month, will the warmer/wetter pattern continue and for how long?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2465
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:19 pm

I forgot to add this to the long range thread. I saw a robin today.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2465
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:55 pm

We went 33 straight days with no sun spots and now have a mini spot but it is one to say the least
Spotless Days
2019 total: 48 days (75%) so far wow!
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Ch_strip
BIG CH = geomagnetic issue seismological speaking ahead

and so it starts the bring back of winter on the great ST Paddy Day and teh PNA spike lasts possibly until teh end of the month dropping the trough into the Eact Coast - where the hell where you all JAN and FEB!!!!
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65
This is the result of the big SOI drop this past two/three weeks and finally the central based nino forcing taking over

MJO hangs in cold phase
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 NCPE_phase_21m_full

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 ECMF_phase_51m_small(389)

PNA
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Ecmwf_pna_bias

Storm possibilities are there peeps and spring = delayed by these looks at this time.

Nothing we can do but embrace it - we have more snow in March than our true Meteorological winter 12/1 to 3/1

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Snow88 Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:33 pm

amugs wrote:We went 33 straight days with no sun spots and now have a mini spot but it is one to say the least
Spotless Days
2019 total: 48 days (75%) so far wow!
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Ch_strip
BIG CH = geomagnetic issue seismological speaking ahead

and so it starts the bring back of winter on the great ST Paddy Day and teh PNA spike lasts possibly until teh end of the month dropping the trough into the Eact Coast - where the hell where you all JAN and FEB!!!!
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65
This is the result of the big SOI drop this past two/three weeks and finally the central based nino forcing taking over

MJO hangs in cold phase
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 NCPE_phase_21m_full

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 ECMF_phase_51m_small(389)

PNA
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Ecmwf_pna_bias

Storm possibilities are there peeps and spring = delayed by these looks at this time.

Nothing we can do but embrace it - we have more snow in March than our true Meteorological winter 12/1 to 3/1

PNA going positive
EPO falling
AO falling
New Moon

Something big might be on the horizon
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by essexcountypete Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:18 am

dkodgis wrote:I forgot to add this to the long range thread. I saw a robin today.

On Monday, right after the storm, about 20 robins showed up in our big holly tree to meal out on holly berries. The next morning, there were a dozen very fat robins on the sunny flat roof on the back of my house. Apparently one of the two goshawks that reside in the cemetery across the street also took note of the robins. I went to the shed to put my shovels away yesterday morning, and I turn around to walk out and not six feet in front of me the goshawk lands with a robin in it's claws. It stood there for about 30 seconds until it saw me, then took off with the robin and left a cloud of feathers.

[sorry, this should have been in banter]
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 783
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Snow88 Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:17 am

PNA still looks great as we head into mid March
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:32 am

Snow88 wrote:PNA still looks great as we head into mid March

Agreed. As long as the current trends cont we will most likely be tracking at least 1-2 more snow chances. Big or small, interior coast all still up in the air but someone on this board should see snow

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:55 pm

Look at that ridge out westLong Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 5c83ec10
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Irish Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:42 pm

I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC. Or is that because it's too far out?
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Grselig Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:28 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Look at that ridge out westLong Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 5c83ec10

Time frame is the 20th so it’s pretty far out for any forecast. But there is at least potential.
Grselig
Grselig
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1407
Reputation : 140
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 54
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:59 am

Irish wrote:I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC.  Or is that because it's too far out?

This coming 5-7 day period is pretty warm, or at least normal-to-above. It’s the week beyond that where there is good potential for below normal, colder air to set up shop for a few days.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:51 pm

billg315 wrote:
Irish wrote:I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC.  Or is that because it's too far out?

This coming 5-7 day period is pretty warm, or at least normal-to-above. It’s the week beyond that where there is good potential for below normal, colder air to set up shop for a few days.
Can the coastal areas or even 15-20 miles inland see any meaningful snow, i mean yes it has happened but with day light savings and sun angle I would think it would have to all fall at night and be heavy. Honestly I would rather spring come, but if we can get one really good storm I will wait. Hoping by april we go into full spring.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 34 of 36 Previous  1 ... 18 ... 33, 34, 35, 36  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum