JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

Ray, things are looking pretty good north of 84 in Dutchess. Im 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie and hoping freezing rain stays south. I just hate the ice. Are you in Fishkill?

TheAresian wrote:I mean 12" is a reasonable total, but with the cold temps forecasted for my area the ratio bump jumps the total up to 18-24". That would make it the biggest or 2nd biggest snowfall since the Superstorm of 93. Does this system really have that much potential?

algae888 wrote:New York City on the Euro never gets above 32 degrees for the entire storm in the twenties anywhere north of there. Newark highest temperature is 30 during the storm. We still have to remember the mid-levels are going to warm because this is a southern stream system so even though temps will be cold enough to support snow it will not be an all-out snowfall for many of us probably a 30 mile radius north and west of the city. you have to get into CP and Doc land for it to have a chance to stay all snow even there can mix. Verbatim on the euro is five to seven in for New York City followed by 1.8 in of either sleet or freezing rain followed by 1 to 3 in of snow on the back end I don't ever recall a storm like this if this were to happen

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

No kidding aside you made these lat two storms call after the Nov debacle LOL! - Great come back kid!

Alex you beat me to the punch on the ice maps - I had to teach a few kids a few things about ................C........A.................D......

Crippling scenario. Need a few more ticks over teh next 24 hours and then..............HOLD!!

rb924119 wrote:


Anywhere south of the yellow line (as an approximation), I think the 10:1 map (which is annotated) looks quite reasonable for numbers. North of there, I much prefer the look of the 15:1 distribution, although this whole thing shifted another 25-40 miles south. Again, this is just a general idea of what I think seems most reasonable right now.

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DAYBLAZER wrote:

rb924119 wrote:


Anywhere south of the yellow line (as an approximation), I think the 10:1 map (which is annotated) looks quite reasonable for numbers. North of there, I much prefer the look of the 15:1 distribution, although this whole thing shifted another 25-40 miles south. Again, this is just a general idea of what I think seems most reasonable right now.

What about if you are directly UNDER the line?

I kid, I know it's an approximation as you said. But you literally drew the line right over my backyard here in Southern Sussex NJ.

amugs wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

amugs wrote:SROC - lots of S leaners on that good to see.

Lots of time still peeps so we need a few more corrections in the next 24-36 hours and then we can hone in on this but the team is marching down teh field and the goal line is about 35 yards away at this point!

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

so do the euro Indies have a lot of ice still for NYC area as that mean shows only 6 inches snow and I would think qpf with those low placements would be much higher.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

amugs wrote:SROC - lots of S leaners on that good to see.

Lots of time still peeps so we need a few more corrections in the next 24-36 hours and then we can hone in on this but the team is marching down teh field and the goal line is about 35 yards away at this point!

Just hope we're not the NY Giants where Eli throws a pick six on the next play.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

so do the euro Indies have a lot of ice still for NYC area as that mean shows only 6 inches snow and I would think qpf with those low placements would be much higher.

They are most likely but as yuo dais its an ensemble for gods sake not an OP -  6" is a good amount and I don't see EPS having Ice accretion maps. Better than what you had the last 8 weeks & last weekend right? Take it and run to the bank there are more in the pipeline to come.

sroc4 wrote:Voice of Reason coming:

Honestly I would not take any of today verbatim in any way shape or form.  We still have to first nail down storm track which is still not a consensus yet.  The basic trends have been further S&E, but the GFS has remained on the NW side of the consensus.  It would not be unheard of to see the models shift back NW a little before settling onto the final track.  

Once the track is better understood then we can focus our attention to the thermal profiles.  This could be the hardest part of the forecast as there will be a very tight gradient.  You may not have to travel all that far as the crow flies to see the difference between Godzilla and oogatz.  Keep in mind lower res models like the GFS will have a tough time with some of the thermal detailks as this will be a dynamic system as it approaches so models like euro and the sr hi res models will likely do better in guiding the forecast going forward.  Even then there will still be busted forecasts both on the high end and the low end with this type of dynamic system.  It happens every time and is unavoidable.  

So buckle up folks because the next 2days is going to be a wild ride.  

 

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

amugs wrote:SROC - lots of S leaners on that good to see.

Lots of time still peeps so we need a few more corrections in the next 24-36 hours and then we can hone in on this but the team is marching down teh field and the goal line is about 35 yards away at this point!

Just hope we're not the NY Giants where Eli throws a pick six on the next play.