JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

PNA ridge breaks down, High further south and boom that is why we see this way south jog on the 0z GFS

Huge shift south on 00z GFS surface map!!

Definitely a nice improvement. If we can keep trending in that direction, we'll be in good shape

Sets up for another ice storm senarion for coast, but one more push south and we are all golden white.

GFS CAVES !!!

aiannone wrote:PNA ridge breaks down, High further south and boom that is why we see this way south jog on the 0z GFS

I just posted this is what we need

amugs wrote:GFS CAVES !!!

For one run, it still has me on edge as this is 4 to 5 days out and plenty can shift back the other way, I really hope this trending continues just a bit further south to get us all in and then it stays there. I am staying very cautious, with hope in my heart.

0z CMC still mostly rain. Low rides over DC moves NE and then exits of the NJ coast south of LI. Brief changeover at the end. But also a jog south and east

CMC further south and east also. Good 00z runs so far.

UKIE holds and serve .....GN peeos. Very positive trends so far. Let's see what that PITA DR. No has to say come morning.

The shift at 500mb on the 00z GFS could be the saving grace we needed in this dreadful winter. The GFS just trended to the UKIE, and the 00z UKIE run tonight STILL shows a major snowstorm for our area.

The PNA ridge broke down, the southern stream energy was more fierce, and the northern stream energy outpaced it. There was hardly any phasing. Exactly what we needed.

One more positive step with models tomorrow and it could be game on. Or, a step backwards means this will turn out to be a snow to rain event. Although I remain in favor of that scenario, I am absolutely loving the GFS and UKIE runs tonight.

Madonne!

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:GFS CAVES !!!

For one run, it still has me on edge as this is 4 to 5 days out and plenty can shift back the other way, I really hope this trending continues just a bit further south to get us all in and then it stays there.  I am staying very cautious, with hope in my heart.

It will waffle back and forth till she settles in, I am still thinking we cash in on the White Gold on Sunday. The trend is your friend.

Weather repeats folks. The pna ridge broke down last week and is looking like it may again. Usually this is bad for us but this winter is so effed up thatvwhats usually bad may be good!

Frank_Wx wrote:The shift at 500mb on the 00z GFS could be the saving grace we needed in this dreadful winter. The GFS just trended to the UKIE, and the 00z UKIE run tonight STILL shows a major snowstorm for our area.

The PNA ridge broke down, the southern stream energy was more fierce, and the northern stream energy outpaced it. There was hardly any phasing. Exactly what we needed.

One more positive step with models tomorrow and it could be game on. Or, a step backwards means this will turn out to be a snow to rain event. Although I remain in favor of that scenario, I am absolutely loving the GFS and UKIE runs tonight.

Madonne!

0z GFS ENS

aiannone wrote:0z GFS ENS

I can live with this, and the coast is getting there.

Well you can add the Euro to the list of great model trends for tonight 6 to 12 in of snow for the area followed by sleet freezing rain and plain rain along the coast then back to snow before it ends great Trends tonight

One thing that I need to ask the more knowledgable in here is is see all positive signs in model runs last night the things we need for snowier solutions but it seems not to reflect the surface in my area. Will the maps eventually show snowier solutions here on CNJ coast?

Love what I see this am euro followed and now all models have pushed south
Check out deep thunder lol 43 inches bullseye for beabtown and Easter ma lol. 17 for NYC. Font care doubt that's true but I'd take 17 in a heartbeat! Even 6 to 12 sounds awesome but come on guys lets get the beast hoisted in a few days! Frank said the M word!

I know I hate off-hour runs, ESPECIALLY the FV3 (which has been horrible), but positive changes so far on 06z run are phenomenal good night all lol

ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

rb924119 wrote:ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

Very nice!

skinsfan1177 wrote:One thing that I need to ask the more knowledgable in here is is see all positive signs in model runs last night the things we need for snowier solutions but it seems not to reflect the surface in my area. Will the maps eventually show snowier solutions here on CNJ coast?

With less phasing you don't get the arctic air in as quick. That would be my guess.

WOW. NWS going all ALL RAIN except for far nw areas where there could be a mix and then brutal cold followed by a quick warm up and more rain Wednesday. JUST WOW IF THIS VERIFIES. Even with the overnight trends they went this way. VERY SURPRISING AND UNSETTLING

sroc4 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:One thing that I need to ask the more knowledgable in here is is see all positive signs in model runs last night the things we need for snowier solutions but it seems not to reflect the surface in my area. Will the maps eventually show snowier solutions here on CNJ coast?

With less phasing you don't get the arctic air in as quick.  That would be my guess.

Again with less phasing you get less cold air to work with.  This could allow the warm nose at 925 and/or 850 an easier time to push into the area.  As per usual timing is everything and us coasties may have to be careful for what we wish for. A LP track over the area with little phasing will likely keep the coastal plain rain during the brunt of the storm, but front end snow comes into play more and more.

BTW The Aresian if your out there on your far N&W island know that yes I am rooting for my own back yard which typically means you take some kind of hit, but know I still think you will do well with this one.

It is the cold air, right? It is sll snow then. If the cold air and warm air meet up for tea, ice. Generator time

rb924119 wrote:ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

Why do you do this and not attach pictures?

It's like looking at Playboy (aging myself) and the centerfold pulls out to block letters that say "WOW, take our word for it the photo we were going to post is really hot".