JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
I hope this thing slides at least a little southeast. I'm starting to feel guilty about my excitement.
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
LOL don't we are all greedy snow moungrals, "gimmi it its mine!!" LOL, I do however hope it can somehow clobber everyone.TheAresian wrote:I hope this thing slides at least a little southeast. I'm starting to feel guilty about my excitement.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Gefs looks worse and worse. Not too late but starting to think an inch of slop maybe best I can do. Too bad we can’t catch a break this year.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
FWIW I’m hearing talk that 18z Euro was LIGHTYEARS better than 12z...........can anybody confirm this concretely???
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
weatherwatchermom wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I'm just go sit back and see what happens. I'm not adding weather to my stress bucket its just not worth it. I am hoping for the best and just reading what you guys are saying and try make my own opinions but I won't say them cuz I honestly will prolly sound dumb. On that note keep us up to date fruquently if possible. So far I feel mixed which way it might go.
Please share!! That’s what this forum is for! Judgement-free zone........but we’re better than Planet Fitness
rb..just watched bernie rayno..do you have time to look at it and give your opinion? I am usually a half glass full kinda gal..but not feeling good about any of this...
Not right now, but maybe in the morning?
rb924119- Meteorologist
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aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Looks identical I can barely tell the difference.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
I still have not written off the very real possibility that I will wake up to more snow Friday morning than Sunday. And that ain’t because Thursday night’s system is looking any stronger. Lol. My fear is I get a couple inches of snow at outset Saturday night, it washes away with rain by Sunday AM and then only add an inch or so when it goes back to snow Sunday afternoon.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Here you go RB. These are the last 3 runs of the Euro including the 18z. As you can see the vortex and southern stream are becoming farther apart with each ensuing run. Unfortunately the 18z run only goes out to 90 hours but one can surmise that if the run were to continue, the low would be less amped. Good trends indeed.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Have they ever been correct together?skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Scullybutcher wrote:Have they ever been correct together?skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
Not sure but the Ukie is hard to go against
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
When time are the next set of model runs?
snowlover 12345- Posts : 29
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Ukie, Deep Thunder Solutionskinsfan1177 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:Have they ever been correct together?skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
Not sure but the Ukie is hard to go against
This is pretty much the UKMET summed up in a precip map. If we avoid a phase with the TPV for long enough our low could go well south and produce snow down to the coast for I-95 30% chance of occurring right now.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
For those of you who read my discussion, the NAM just pulled it off......FLAWLESSLY. Looks like the UKMET. Here’s to hoping........
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
I'm so lost. Nam. Low is in Mexico.?
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
NAM also sharpened up the 500mb trough for Friday and a bit south and is colder.
Trends are good today we need this to continue and see the tpv to retract a bit more and not phase. It actually gets ahead of the southern energy and it just slides from West to NE and is UKIE like.
UKIE0z runs and 12Z runs if hold then I think we are moving to a much more favorable solution at 500 if gefs and euro tick along with it. We aren't seeing massive changes by either model.
Trends are good today we need this to continue and see the tpv to retract a bit more and not phase. It actually gets ahead of the southern energy and it just slides from West to NE and is UKIE like.
UKIE0z runs and 12Z runs if hold then I think we are moving to a much more favorable solution at 500 if gefs and euro tick along with it. We aren't seeing massive changes by either model.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Mugsecito,me gusta
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
NAM difrences albeit small like 50-75 miles but good positive moves here.


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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
I SAID THIS EARLIER TODAY BUT IT GOT BURIED SO HERE IT IS. FIR THOSE OF US THAT WANT BIG TIME SNOWS WHAT WE NEED IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU SAW WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS STORM. A COLLAPSING WEST COAST RIDGE AND A PV PRESS TO SUPPRESS THE STORM ENOUGH SO IT STAYS SOUTH. IRONIC THAT WE DIDNT WANT IT LAST STORM SO IT HAPPENED AND WE WANT IT THIS STORM. CAN WE SEE A REPEAT?
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
This is gonna end up being one of those storms where being in the bullseye 5 days out is the kiss of death, isn't it?
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Just got home from being out all evening, things are looking a bit better I can see? IF the NAM, UKIE and Deep thunder are right. I have a sneaking suspicion that the GFS and Euro will follow suit and what syo talked about will happen. These subtle changes are great, lets just hope the real time progression shows this in the coming days and not just modeled.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
It does look like there are improvements aloft on the GFS. A little weaker and south, heights a little lower. Overall looks better than 18z
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
PNA ridge breaks down, High further south and boom that is why we see this way south jog on the 0z GFS
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Huge shift south on 00z GFS surface map!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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