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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:42 pm

It never changes to plain rain for just north of NYC and up!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:43 pm

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Nam_3h13
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:44 pm

I don't know where you all live specifically, but it still doesn't look good depending on where you are.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Zr_acc10

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:45 pm

Look at the super intense radar, I believe that yellow from NYC north is also ICE....Yikes

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Nam_re10

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:49 pm

@TheAresian wrote:I don't know where you all live specifically, but it still doesn't look good depending on where you are.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Zr_acc10
Yup cuts right through me, that area has been the bullsleye for a few days now, I am no longer taking this threat lightly, I am thinking we can expect at least 0.5 ice, I am in the 0.5-1.0 area in that band, dark purple, look way to the west well over 1 inch wow! trying to find the map to this on that site, where is it?
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:54 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@TheAresian wrote:I don't know where you all live specifically, but it still doesn't look good depending on where you are.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Zr_acc10
Yup cuts right through me, that area has been the bullsleye for a few days now, I am no longer taking this threat lightly, I am thinking we can expect at least 0.5 ice, I am in the 0.5-1.0 area in that band, dark purple, look way to the west well over 1 inch wow! trying to find the map to this on that site, where is it?

Yeah. The ice is a concern. truly hope that doesn’t verify.

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Post by Vinnydula Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:54 pm

3k Nam. Stays all snow for nyc
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:56 pm

I find that hard to believe vinny, am waiting for wxbell to load it will show me exact precip types and ice maps.
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Post by gigs68 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:57 pm

whats the approximate start and end time for this storm?
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Post by snowlover 12345 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:59 pm

I find it hard to believe that I-95 would face an ice/sleet threat like the NAM is depicting, however, I do believe there is the possibility of a more southernly track

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:59 pm

@Vinnydula wrote:3k Nam. Stays all snow for nyc

No that's not right, NYC stays below freezing but the majority of the precip is sleet and freezing rain.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:59 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@TheAresian wrote:I don't know where you all live specifically, but it still doesn't look good depending on where you are.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Zr_acc10
Yup cuts right through me, that area has been the bullsleye for a few days now, I am no longer taking this threat lightly, I am thinking we can expect at least 0.5 ice, I am in the 0.5-1.0 area in that band, dark purple, look way to the west well over 1 inch wow! trying to find the map to this on that site, where is it?

Yeah. The ice is a concern. truly hope that doesn’t verify.
I found the page with this map, you can actually click your coordinates and see the soundings, I have no clue how to read them but I am guessing theyu will tell the truth if that kind of ice accretion will happen or not. Right now it shows me at 0.41 and NYC at 0.86 which I do not buy, i would imagine the further north of the city you are the more ice, either way anything around 0.5 and above as i said look at videos on youtube so see what kind of damae that does, its bad. On top of that add on that the roads will freeze to a skating rink so not only do you have the bowed falling trees but the inability to drive at all or even walk unless you got spiked boots. I used to have them they were great.
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Post by Irish Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:01 pm

Christ, this is so back and forth it's killing me!! If we end up with nothing I'll be so pissed!

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:02 pm

The 3k NAM 850mb temp map.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Nam3km10

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:03 pm

NAM snowfall totals, taking sleet and freezing rain out of the equation

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 12km_n10
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Post by Irish Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:03 pm

BTW, I'm still being forecast for basically all rain in CNJ.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:04 pm

3K NAM subtle changes here only 100.mile shift south
 Seeing the CAD better, look at he 32 line, don't see the mid levels here but if warm that is a ton of ice verbatim
January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 5c413ea2e41d5

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:05 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NAM snowfall totals, taking sleet and freezing rain out of the equation

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 12km_n10

I saw that map. Then for fun, I checked the Crapola totals and just about fell outta my seat when I saw over 20".

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:05 pm

Im just going to bring this over here from the other thread. It still may not be correct but....

@sroc4 wrote:Im not going to lie I am discouraged and disappointed by the trends today.  That said, and I said this Tuesday, one run does not make a trend.  I have seen this game before where we trend trend trend, come back, then trend to final soln in the last 24-48hrs.    I'm "almost" positive my neck of the woods is out of the game for anything other than a few sloppy inches followed by cold driving rain, then maybe some flakes to end things before it all freezes, but many good people in here are VERY close to a really nice event, and many others of our N&W friends WILL do great regardless of last min shifts.  Yes it will be a tough pill to swallow listening to you folks cashing in, but it is what it is.  


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:07 pm

I’m brining this one too:

Arnold says “don’t give up” (in Austrian accent)

@sroc4 wrote:Tick North......BEWARE

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Giphy

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:09 pm

3km NAM and the ice is not even at its heaviest, this is really bad, this doesnt go out any further but here is the totals at hr 60 and the radar at 60. North of the frz is snow and sleet. Doc looks like your out of the fzr but sleet is in for hudson valley. Whats super bad is the snow comes first its going to stick to trees adding weight then the ice will encase it IF that strip of frz is correct leading to a lot more than scattered power outages IMO.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Hires_12

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Hires_13

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Hires_15

Here is the snow, kinda stinks but wayyy north cashes in, but this is also not nearly done as shown by radar.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Hires_14
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:12 pm

I feel doubly bad for you, sroc. Not only because of the storm, but because you're stuck being the only adult in the room. Unless Frank is around. Or maybe Ray.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:13 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I’m brining this one too:

Arnold says “don’t give up” (in Austrian accent)

@sroc4 wrote:Tick North......BEWARE

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Giphy
Yeah looks like long island may luck out and not get hit by the ice but also miss out on snow, it is hard to swallow, I had to go through it 3x in march and April last winter it sucks.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:14 pm

@TheAresian wrote:I feel doubly bad for you, sroc. Not only because of the storm, but because you're stuck being the only adult in the room. Unless Frank is around. Or maybe Ray.
Hey speak for yourself LOL
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:17 pm

@TheAresian wrote:I feel doubly bad for you, sroc. Not only because of the storm, but because you're stuck being the only adult in the room. Unless Frank is around. Or maybe Ray.

So ironic. My wife just said the exact opposite. It’s all about perspective isn’t it? Lol What a Face

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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