Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

we gotta get frank in here to get his take on this..hey amugs..that "m" word might be heard tonight or tomorrow i hope

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a few inches on top of tomorrow for monday at most per snow maps ( a few places may see 4-6) on both euro and GFS, where are people getting this could be a decent storm?

Jman, the only thing keeping totals low in some projections is the mixing with/change to rain. In areas where this is all or mostly snow I think 10” or more isn’t out of the question. So the idea of this being a decent storm is if you get into the area where it’s mainly snow. That will depend on track for most people.

hyde345 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a few inches on top of tomorrow for monday at most per snow maps ( a few places may see 4-6) on both euro and GFS, where are people getting this could be a decent storm?

That map shows about 10 inches in your neck of the woods and you're complaining? Wouldn't that double what you have seen this year? So what if its' from 2 storms.

I would need about 14 inches to double, alot small events have added up to about 7 inches estimated from Dec to today LOL (so sad). I would prefer it all on monday more chance of school closing and a 3 day weekend for me : ) But yes the map is good but dshos more like 8 for me 5 of which are shown to fall tomorrow. 3 inches won't even get a delay. We had almost 2 today, it was still snowing and no delay.

So far through hr 39, NAM looks pretty good. South of 18z so far

Nam coming in colder.

Damn it ends late Sunday night per 3km nam though it snows entire time even for NYC!, plenty time for morning commute so probably schools will be open. Won't even get to enjoy it.

I just don't get it, my area is showing less than an inch for sunday's event and mostly rain.

Irish wrote:I just don't get it, my area is showing less than an inch for sunday's event and mostly rain.

This is a central NJ north event, are you central to southern NJ? If so looks like rain there.

I'm from Middlesex county, central, but bordering Monmouth. I'm from Old Bridge.

Where does one sign!!!!!

I'm less than an inch on that map, so i wouldn't be signing.

Jman and Irish please take the whining, negative convo over to the playpen. Thanks.

sroc4 wrote:Jman and Irish please take the whining, negative convo over to the playpen. Thanks.

I am not whining, I am happy about the storm just the timing is i wanted it to coincide with school thats all.

amugs wrote:Where does one sign!!!!!

I will sign def, but can we move the ending up by like 4 or 5 hrs? I love how New York is so big I cannot see if I am in blue or yellow LOL, where is this from?

0z Icon continues to be a pretty good hit

jmanley32 wrote:Damn it ends late Sunday night per 3km nam though it snows entire time even for NYC!, plenty time for morning commute so probably schools will be open. Won't even get to enjoy it.

Chillax dude - this isn't the case - one model run doesn't mean this ends at 12AM and it showing 4amish stopping as the storm pulls out

Any way from Isotherm:
The chain of causality for this event is quite interesting, and ultimately, the tertiary cause of the improvements in track denoted in modelling is a slight/subtle correction toward more geopotential height extension into Greenland downstream, which acts to force the TPV slightly farther south, near the southern tip of Hudson's Bay. Consequently, the short wave itself must follow a pendulum curve farther south than it otherwise would have. The secondary cause is the zonal wind increase in the sub-tropics of the ATL which have aided in this ephemeral pulse of high-latitude blocking; non-canonical, certainly, but it's sufficient and it works. The corrections toward more snowy are not coincidental or luck based for that matter. Of course, the provenance of the sub-tropical zonal wind increase in the Atlantic is the amelioration in tropical forcing, most notably the 7-8 day MJO phase 1 lag which induces these very effects. Concordantly, the chain of causality makes sense meteorologically, and the resultant impact will be the most optimal winter storm scenario of the season to date for much of the I-95 corridor. The MJO will remain conducive for the next 10 days at least as well. Beyond that, the picture becomes more nebulous, but I don't see a blowtorch pattern coming at this juncture, in fact, the Pacific may ameliorate again after a transient interlude, so there may be another final threat (probably minor) in the second half of March.



Nonetheless, short term, I think this event looks quite good for NYC and immediate surroundings.

0Z NAM MONEY SHOT

Sroc, can you explain to me where i'm whining? I asked a question, gave clarification to my location and then said i wouldn't sign based on projections on the map for my area.

Look forward to your response...

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Damn it ends late Sunday night per 3km nam though it snows entire time even for NYC!, plenty time for morning commute so probably schools will be open. Won't even get to enjoy it.

Chillax dude - this isn't the case - one model run doesn't mean this ends at 12AM and it showing 4amish stopping as the storm pulls out

Any way from Isotherm:
The chain of causality for this event is quite interesting, and ultimately, the tertiary cause of the improvements in track denoted in modelling is a slight/subtle correction toward more geopotential height extension into Greenland downstream, which acts to force the TPV slightly farther south, near the southern tip of Hudson's Bay. Consequently, the short wave itself must follow a pendulum curve farther south than it otherwise would have. The secondary cause is the zonal wind increase in the sub-tropics of the ATL which have aided in this ephemeral pulse of high-latitude blocking; non-canonical, certainly, but it's sufficient and it works. The corrections toward more snowy are not coincidental or luck based for that matter. Of course, the provenance of the sub-tropical zonal wind increase in the Atlantic is the amelioration in tropical forcing, most notably the 7-8 day MJO phase 1 lag which induces these very effects. Concordantly, the chain of causality makes sense meteorologically, and the resultant impact will be the most optimal winter storm scenario of the season to date for much of the I-95 corridor. The MJO will remain conducive for the next 10 days at least as well. Beyond that, the picture becomes more nebulous, but I don't see a blowtorch pattern coming at this juncture, in fact, the Pacific may ameliorate again after a transient interlude, so there may be another final threat (probably minor) in the second half of March.



Nonetheless, short term, I think this event looks quite good for NYC and immediate surroundings.

If only Tom had read my write up from Tuesday  

sroc4 wrote:

crippo84 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

crippo84 wrote:One day we hear March will warm up after the first week.  The next we hear it's expected to be cold.  As this winter has shown, the long range can't really be trusted.  Probably best not to speculate too much at this point.

With the MJO doing what its doing expect the next 10-14 days to avg below normal.  Confidence level = moderate to high with that statement

And early next week the potential for a significant snowfall exists

Thanks Scott.  Always appreciate and trust your guidance.  I know many have given up and thrown in the towel, but I can't get over going through winter without one significant snow chance to track. Hoping for the best next week.

You bet and thanks.  I myself have thrown in the towel a long time ago, but that doesnt mean we still cant get something to come through.  Regardless of how the past has gone one always has to remain objective about the present and future.  MJO rounding through cold phases for this time of year(see below).   Both GEFS and EURO ens are for the first time in a long time in agreement regarding this. SOI is cooperating.






Side note.  I really have not done much in depth analysis of the overall pattern so while I am pretty confident in the BN temps coming up Im not nearly as confident yet about the significant snow threats.  That said the look to the pattern on the GFS and Euro ensemble mean makes me think that the blocking into Alaska, but also into NW Canada will force the TPV far enough into SE Canada to prevent anything coming out of the south from cutting.  There also seems to be just enough higher heights in the N Atlantic to potentially allow the N and southern streams to phase leading to an actual Nor Eatser type set up here for early next week with this look.  I "like" the look, but dont love the look.  As per usual timing is everything.  Fingers crossed, ice cubes in toilet.  

Irish wrote:Sroc, can you explain to me where i'm whining?  I asked a question, gave clarification to my location and then said i wouldn't sign based on projections on the map for my area.

Look forward to your response...

See the Play Pen thread

Ladies and gentlemen the Euro still continues to correct itself. Latest 0Z is now another tic S&E and my guess is it's not quite done yet. It has not handled this storm properly at all.

So, i gather with the moves s and e, heehaw, that that's great news for a solid snow event?

We need to let this current storm get by to get a better handle of exact track. There is not doubt it has shifted SE which bodes well for those close to the I95.

It seems to be coming in line with other models that have had a colder/more SE track all along. I also think tonight’s event (which is giving me heavy snow right now) bodes well for tomorrow nights track.

NWS is on board with colder snowier solution. Winter Storm Watch just issued for my area of Central NJ for 4-9” Sunday night into Monday:

WINTER STORM WATCH...Additional snow is anticipated from late Sunday into Monday morning. Snowfall amounts of 4 to 9 inches are possible at that time. Travel may become hazardous. The snow is forecast to impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
This Winter Weather Advisory means that snow will cause travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibility. Use extra caution if driving.
This Winter Storm Watch means that there is potential for
significant snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the forecast over the weekend.

6z NAMhas good low placement. Keeps everywhere from I-95 corridor and N&W mainly snow. Good 4-10” storm for most folks on here except the Jersey shore and eastern LI. Need a tick S &E to help those folks out here.

Gfs models are a bit too far SE imo. I think BM to slightly inside. But we’ll probably know more this evening.