Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Damn it ends late Sunday night per 3km nam though it snows entire time even for NYC!, plenty time for morning commute so probably schools will be open. Won't even get to enjoy it.

Chillax dude - this isn't the case - one model run doesn't mean this ends at 12AM and it showing 4amish stopping as the storm pulls out

Any way from Isotherm:
The chain of causality for this event is quite interesting, and ultimately, the tertiary cause of the improvements in track denoted in modelling is a slight/subtle correction toward more geopotential height extension into Greenland downstream, which acts to force the TPV slightly farther south, near the southern tip of Hudson's Bay. Consequently, the short wave itself must follow a pendulum curve farther south than it otherwise would have. The secondary cause is the zonal wind increase in the sub-tropics of the ATL which have aided in this ephemeral pulse of high-latitude blocking; non-canonical, certainly, but it's sufficient and it works. The corrections toward more snowy are not coincidental or luck based for that matter. Of course, the provenance of the sub-tropical zonal wind increase in the Atlantic is the amelioration in tropical forcing, most notably the 7-8 day MJO phase 1 lag which induces these very effects. Concordantly, the chain of causality makes sense meteorologically, and the resultant impact will be the most optimal winter storm scenario of the season to date for much of the I-95 corridor. The MJO will remain conducive for the next 10 days at least as well. Beyond that, the picture becomes more nebulous, but I don't see a blowtorch pattern coming at this juncture, in fact, the Pacific may ameliorate again after a transient interlude, so there may be another final threat (probably minor) in the second half of March.



Nonetheless, short term, I think this event looks quite good for NYC and immediate surroundings.

sroc4 wrote:

crippo84 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

crippo84 wrote:One day we hear March will warm up after the first week.  The next we hear it's expected to be cold.  As this winter has shown, the long range can't really be trusted.  Probably best not to speculate too much at this point.

With the MJO doing what its doing expect the next 10-14 days to avg below normal.  Confidence level = moderate to high with that statement

And early next week the potential for a significant snowfall exists

Thanks Scott.  Always appreciate and trust your guidance.  I know many have given up and thrown in the towel, but I can't get over going through winter without one significant snow chance to track. Hoping for the best next week.

You bet and thanks.  I myself have thrown in the towel a long time ago, but that doesnt mean we still cant get something to come through.  Regardless of how the past has gone one always has to remain objective about the present and future.  MJO rounding through cold phases for this time of year(see below).   Both GEFS and EURO ens are for the first time in a long time in agreement regarding this. SOI is cooperating.






Side note.  I really have not done much in depth analysis of the overall pattern so while I am pretty confident in the BN temps coming up Im not nearly as confident yet about the significant snow threats.  That said the look to the pattern on the GFS and Euro ensemble mean makes me think that the blocking into Alaska, but also into NW Canada will force the TPV far enough into SE Canada to prevent anything coming out of the south from cutting.  There also seems to be just enough higher heights in the N Atlantic to potentially allow the N and southern streams to phase leading to an actual Nor Eatser type set up here for early next week with this look.  I "like" the look, but dont love the look.  As per usual timing is everything.  Fingers crossed, ice cubes in toilet.  

Irish wrote:Sroc, can you explain to me where i'm whining?  I asked a question, gave clarification to my location and then said i wouldn't sign based on projections on the map for my area.

Look forward to your response...