Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

GO!!

I'll move this over here.

Rayno had a good explanation on the differences in track for Sunday's storm. It comes down to where the models show the storm energy. Euro is farther west and GFS is farther east off OBX. The TPV is honestly close in position for both models.

How tonight's storm dampens heights on the EC will play a part in the exact track. I have said i like NW of 95 for best snows and continue to do so. My guess is the track will be somewhere between GFS and Euro ultimately and i think that plays well for 95. The other thing i believe is there is a lot of arctic air feeding the back side of this storm. I think that will also help with temperatures.

If someone is lucky enough to stay all snow for this, then 1' amounts are possible. There is enough precip to support it.

DEEP THUNDER SAYS BOOM to I 78 N
NYC Close Call

EPS - tucked look here coast would mix and become a slop storm - possible and we have to see what Saturday storm does. Lots of time for adjustments and the slightest ones have big implications.

I may be a fool to believe. But I really think this is more snow than rain for most people from I-95 north and west, including the immediate NYC area and close N&W burbs. I do think the Jersey Shore and southern/eastern Long Island could see a fair amount of rain/sleet mixed in.

I think this has the hallmarks of a storm that starts as snow, maybe briefly mixes with sleet and rain mid-storm, but then quickly goes back to all snow before pulling away to the northeast. I think there will be plenty of cold air pouring in on the backside, I think we will remain on the backside as it stays off the coast.

18Z 12K NAM track.  I track like this with rapid intensification gives mostly snow to 95 and points NW IMO.  The more immediate coast would have issues for sure with taint.  I believe this may be accurate when all is said and done.  This is about 50 miles east of Euro I think, but it's that kind thing here.  Exact track is critical, but our storm tonight may just save us with lowering the heights ahead of the storm.  Otherwise, I think it'd track much closer if not on top of us.

BTW this is a crushing for 95 points NW.

heehaw453 wrote:18Z 12K NAM track.  I track like this with rapid intensification gives mostly snow to 95 and points NW IMO.  The more immediate coast would have issues for sure with taint.  I believe this may be accurate when all is said and done.  This is about 50 miles east of Euro I think, but it's that kind thing here.  Exact track is critical, but our storm tonight may just save us with lowering the heights ahead of the storm.  Otherwise, I think it'd track much closer if not on top of us.

BTW this is a crushing for 95 points NW.

right..we need it to track slightly more east and not on top of us to all have snow right??...and that darn rain snow line is right thru my town..arrrrrr..

So far Lee Goldberg has three 6 in of snow with afoot north and west of the city hopefully the foot of snow will come down city and coast

18z GFS slightly east of 12z. Looks good for those along the coast as far as mixing goes

Scenario #1 by EURO


GFS - be friggin right you .. and I will sacrifice my ...........

BING IT HI RES NAM

18z GEFS remain east, slightly more than 12z

Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS remain east, slightly more than 12z

Benchmark track. I'd be surprised if the EURO doesn't cave tonight. Progressive flow argues against a hugger track.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS remain east, slightly more than 12z

Benchmark track. I'd be surprised if the EURO doesn't cave tonight. Progressive flow argues against a hugger track.

The Euro has already caved at 18z 4 millibars weaker low-pressure east of Nantucket instead of over the cape and mugs the Euro solution was never an all rain solution.  4 in of snow before the flip to rain for New York City metro on the 12z 1 don't have the details to the 18z yet

algae888 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS remain east, slightly more than 12z

Benchmark track. I'd be surprised if the EURO doesn't cave tonight. Progressive flow argues against a hugger track.

The Euro has already caved at 18z 4 millibars weaker low-pressure east of Nantucket instead of over the cape and mugs the Euro solution was never an all rain solution.  4 in of snow before the flip to rain for New York City metro on the 12z 1 don't have the details to the 18z yet

EURO takes the low from off of Cape May to off the Del Marva - BM track and more SE and colder run with lots of STJ moisture to pull
From 33& Rain look at12Z to 18Z NICE!!!

It seems to me the bulk of the modeling is off the coast and colder right now.

EURO 18z clown map. These totals include tonights storm.

Is this the M word yet? I mean for the sake of this year if it played out could be even bigger than Nov.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
EURO 18z clown map. These totals include tonights storm.

You think its a clown map? Its at 69 hrs not 240.

Looks like a few inches on top of tomorrow for monday at most per snow maps ( a few places may see 4-6) on both euro and GFS, where are people getting this could be a decent storm?

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:
EURO 18z clown map. These totals include tonights storm.

You think its a clown map? Its at 69 hrs not 240.

When I refer to clown map its meant for the different colors not do I believe in the outcome or not. As of right now I'm cautiously optimistic of a moderate to major event occurring later Sunday into Monday morning. We won't nail down the exact track till tonights event passes through and the heights along the coast sets up afterwards.

amugs wrote:BING IT HI RES NAM

This is the only model right now that looks like a sig storm, two inches for tomorrow and at hr 60 already 10 total for NYC area and plenty to go, please be true : )

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a few inches on top of tomorrow for monday at most per snow maps ( a few places may see 4-6) on both euro and GFS, where are people getting this could be a decent storm?

That map shows about 10 inches in your neck of the woods and you're complaining? Wouldn't that double what you have seen this year? So what if its' from 2 storms.

we gotta get frank in here to get his take on this..hey amugs..that "m" word might be heard tonight or tomorrow i hope

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a few inches on top of tomorrow for monday at most per snow maps ( a few places may see 4-6) on both euro and GFS, where are people getting this could be a decent storm?

Jman, the only thing keeping totals low in some projections is the mixing with/change to rain. In areas where this is all or mostly snow I think 10” or more isn’t out of the question. So the idea of this being a decent storm is if you get into the area where it’s mainly snow. That will depend on track for most people.