September disco and observation

Hey it's a new month I've been following along in the tropical thread still a lot of uncertainty with regards to Dorian however the one thing that's certain is get ready for some real fall weather late this week highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday and could be colder than that post Dorian. Glad summer is finally over looking forward to Winter

Both the GFS and Euro show 0C 850s getting into Central New York and central New England next weekend after Dorian departs. That's extremely early for this to happen especially in this warm climate that we're in temps could be 10 + degrees below normal if models are correct

Wow so not ready for that!!

Tornado warning just to my SE. about 4 miles as the crow flys.

sroc4 wrote:Tornado warning just to my SE. about 4 miles as the crow flys.

Funny. Sunny to partly cloudy in Wayne, NJ, but to our north, west and east, storms (we had some earlier). Be safe!

Beautiful day at the shore. All the rain stayed to our north and sunny all day with a cool breeze. An isolated storm just passed just north of us and gave us 5 minutes of light rain and some lightning. That’s all. We lucked out today down here.

@Scott:

Severe thunderstorm watches up for majority of the area, lets see if we get anything, looks confined more north atm.

aiannone wrote:@Scott:

Wow scott, your in wading river, how close are you to wading river road where the tornado lifted? Crazy, I saw the dark clouds towards LI driving home from CT, I said that doesn't look too good.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:@Scott:

Wow scott, your in wading river, how close are you to wading river road where the tornado lifted? Crazy, I saw the dark clouds towards LI driving home from CT, I said that doesn't look too good.

I live a quarter mile from Wading River Rd, but I was about 4-5miles from where it lifted.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:@Scott:

Wow scott, your in wading river, how close are you to wading river road where the tornado lifted? Crazy, I saw the dark clouds towards LI driving home from CT, I said that doesn't look too good.

I live a quarter mile from Wading River Rd, but I was about 4-5miles from where it lifted.  

Did you get a bad storm still? Any damage in your area or just confimed to the tornado area? I know you were in a severe thunderstorm warning too I believe surrounding the tornado warning. What a weird anomoly to the rest of the entire area, who would have thought. Tornados seem to becoming much more frequent up here, albeit weak but I will never forget the 1989 I believe? Hamden CT tornado, EF4!! I was in guilford CT maybe 30 min away or so and it was still a violent thunderstorm, scary night for me as a 8 yo kid.  I believe one of the reasons I got into weather. We surveyed the damage where we could get to which wasn't much of the area that was basically flattened, not a very common occurrence up this way. There is a video or two on youtube of the damage. It was incredible.

Looks like a repeat of last week: mid-week fleeting taste of what's left of summer; end of week Fall temps return. Could threaten to hit 90 tomorrow, but not hit 70 in some places Friday. At this point, I prefer Friday's temps.

Take a look at this map.  More specifically, take a look at the Gulf of Alaska, ENSO 3.4, and the region from California to Hawaii. Look at how warm the water is there.  Now, look at the region of the coast of Ecuador/Peru where ENSO 1.2 is.  Look at how cool it is relatively speaking.  Finally, look at the temperature anomalies between Greenland/northern Canada, more specifically, Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait.  Notice the relative warmth there.



If you are a snow fanatic living on the I-95 corridor, this is what you want to see during the winter months.  As shown, however, this is as of the morning of September 10th.

frank 638 wrote:United we stand we will never forget what happened 18 years ago God bless America

Amen!

NEVER FORGET.....the only thing i'm disappointed is the absence of the american flags in front of homes though out my neighborhood..in the 1st,2nd after the attacks there were so many homes with there flags...no it's like another day....sad

frank 638 wrote:United we stand we will never forget what happened 18 years ago God bless America

AMEN !
NEVER FORGET!

frank 638 wrote:United we stand we will never forget what happened 18 years ago God bless America

AMEN to this!!
54* for me low - feels wonderful today!!

Why does 67° feel so cold!

It is going to warm into the 80's Sunday and Monday, but overall we're looking at a prolonged period of tranquil weather. Some showers tomorrow night and again Monday night, but then it looks pretty dry the rest of the week.

Tropical threat around last week of September remains low confidence for now.

Math23x7 wrote:Take a look at this map.  More specifically, take a look at the Gulf of Alaska, ENSO 3.4, and the region from California to Hawaii. Look at how warm the water is there.  Now, look at the region of the coast of Ecuador/Peru where ENSO 1.2 is.  Look at how cool it is relatively speaking.  Finally, look at the temperature anomalies between Greenland/northern Canada, more specifically, Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait.  Notice the relative warmth there.



If you are a snow fanatic living on the I-95 corridor, this is what you want to see during the winter months.  As shown, however, this is as of the morning of September 10th.

Mike, this is a great post, and not because it’s both what we want to hear and good to see not rooting on the warmth when we don’t want it hahaha but in all seriousness, I have been following this evolution very closely, and would like to add that the prolonged -SOI (westerly wind burst) boded well for this continuing to persist. Even if we can manage to hold this (regarding the orientation of tropical Pacific anomalies) through only January, it would go a long way to getting us a more enjoyable winter. Remember, though, this is only one of a plethora of factors to consider.

Nice cool morning here. Should warm back up a bit over the next couple days. Long range looks like we could get our first shot at a couple cold nights (first frost for some of our most northern friends?)near the last weekend of the month.