September disco and observation

Math23x7 wrote:Take a look at this map.  More specifically, take a look at the Gulf of Alaska, ENSO 3.4, and the region from California to Hawaii. Look at how warm the water is there.  Now, look at the region of the coast of Ecuador/Peru where ENSO 1.2 is.  Look at how cool it is relatively speaking.  Finally, look at the temperature anomalies between Greenland/northern Canada, more specifically, Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait.  Notice the relative warmth there.



If you are a snow fanatic living on the I-95 corridor, this is what you want to see during the winter months.  As shown, however, this is as of the morning of September 10th.

Mike, this is a great post, and not because it’s both what we want to hear and good to see not rooting on the warmth when we don’t want it hahaha but in all seriousness, I have been following this evolution very closely, and would like to add that the prolonged -SOI (westerly wind burst) boded well for this continuing to persist. Even if we can manage to hold this (regarding the orientation of tropical Pacific anomalies) through only January, it would go a long way to getting us a more enjoyable winter. Remember, though, this is only one of a plethora of factors to consider.

Nice cool morning here. Should warm back up a bit over the next couple days. Long range looks like we could get our first shot at a couple cold nights (first frost for some of our most northern friends?)near the last weekend of the month.

rb924119 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:Take a look at this map.  More specifically, take a look at the Gulf of Alaska, ENSO 3.4, and the region from California to Hawaii. Look at how warm the water is there.  Now, look at the region of the coast of Ecuador/Peru where ENSO 1.2 is.  Look at how cool it is relatively speaking.  Finally, look at the temperature anomalies between Greenland/northern Canada, more specifically, Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait.  Notice the relative warmth there.



If you are a snow fanatic living on the I-95 corridor, this is what you want to see during the winter months.  As shown, however, this is as of the morning of September 10th.

Mike, this is a great post, and not because it’s both what we want to hear and good to see not rooting on the warmth when we don’t want it hahaha but in all seriousness, I have been following this evolution very closely, and would like to add that the prolonged -SOI (westerly wind burst) boded well for this continuing to persist. Even if we can manage to hold this (regarding the orientation of tropical Pacific anomalies) through only January, it would go a long way to getting us a more enjoyable winter. Remember, though, this is only one of a plethora of factors to consider.

Very encouraging is the Cool Waters north of Australia. Near New Guinea. It's the perfect setup cool in Eastern enso regions warm in  3.4 and 4 then cool north of Australia it should set up good forcing in the pac and good setup for wintry weather in our area. add in the positive PDO looks very favorable in the Pacific right now which is probably the biggest factor to our winter weather

Couldn’t agree more, Al. Something to notice too is the MJO FINALLY starting to become a more coherent wave, and where is it looking to emerge? 8/1. I wonder if this will be the start of regular cycling through the favorable phases (8, 1, 2, 3) and essential “phase lock” on account of the above anomaly structure? Time will tell, but that would pretty awesome ** IF TRUE**. I also believe that I read that the QBO is in a descending easterly phase? If so, the forecasts from last year’s winter may be applicable here lol haven’t looked at anything yet, though, so this is ENTIRELY speculation right now.

Tomorrow night in my area NWS has me for 20 degrees.Maybe with a little extra radiational cooling it can break into the upper 30's.Trees showing more color now, cool , crisp mornings.Fall right in sight now.

I wonder how long this dry spell is going to last It hasn’t rained in a long time .I know we had a lot of rain in the spring and summer but do you think we are heading into a mini drought

Mr Frosty and Freeze coming to a town near you in the Outskirts of the Ruburbs

Cool crisp morning .i just wish it would stay like this as we go back to summer by this weekend

38.8 this morning at 7am will probably be the low for the morning.

The last sub 40 degree morning was on June 4th. Next stop the first frost, hopefully before October 10th.

Low 40s here in Albany. CP not sure if you saw but since May, I have lived in Albany. While it is a bit cooler here, the apartment I am in is pretty well insulated. Contrast that with the drafty apartments I was in while I lived in NYC.

Anyway, as I mentioned a few months ago, now that I am 180 miles north of the city, I fully expect the coast to get its share of Roidzillas while I have everything suppressed here.

frank 638 wrote:Cool crisp morning .i just wish it would stay like this as we go back to summer by this weekend

exactly because its our annual pumpkin/apple picking weekend..and of course it can not feel like fall...with a crisp cool breeze for apple cider and apple pie contest baking in my kitchen...we will be in shorts and baking along with the pies...  on the bright side..family fun will be had... this morning was a beautiful 53 degrees

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:38.8 this morning at 7am will probably be the low for the morning.

The last sub 40 degree morning was on June 4th. Next stop the first frost, hopefully before October 10th.

Ahhhh, Count Snowula aka CP awakens from his summer hibernation with the first reading in the 30's in the HV! Good harbinger of the coming winter!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9Uh_SqMRm4

Math23x7 wrote:Low 40s here in Albany.  CP not sure if you saw but since May, I have lived in Albany.  While it is a bit cooler here, the apartment I am in is pretty well insulated.  Contrast that with the drafty apartments I was in while I lived in NYC.  

Anyway, as I mentioned a few months ago, now that I am 180 miles north of the city, I fully expect the coast to get its share of Roidzillas while I have everything suppressed here.

Math 23x7, glad you like the apartment up in Albany but you made a major mistake admitting you would  even be slightly upset of every major snowstorm just brushing the Albany area with filtered sun and maybe a conciliatory flurry.Expect reports from CP every 15 minutes on the 3 to 4 inch snowfall rates down here in the HV when that storm hits us.

I should add an observation as we are in obs and disco.39 degree morning, bright sunshine, no wind.Perfect late summer day in the HV.

Do not let this weekend's brief return to summer weather worry you my friends. While I have grown accustomed these past two days to morning temps in the 40s and daytime highs in the 60s, this weekend's return to the upper 80s is short-lived. It will exit at the same time as the "official" end of summer Monday. We are now too far down the road toward Fall, and then Winter, for Summer to hold on. It's grip is loosening as it tries vainly this weekend to keep us in its grasp. The leaves are already turning on some trees, the weed growth is slowing, the sun is setting before 7. Let summer have its last fling this weekend -- it's days are numbered in the single digits.

43.3° this morning, time to check the furnace!

i had 37 this am but the NWS had 36 about 5:00 am

Janet, I did check the heater yesterday. It is on tonight.

CP, welcome back my friend to the show that never ends.

42* with Clear skies. A chilly, crisp morning. Not looking forward to return to hotter temps this weekend but at least it will be short-lived.

48* out on the island this am. Feels amazing.

Massive Greenland block showing up in the LR.
Gonna be interesting to see how and if it comes to fruition. Give me this in winter and we dance like its 1999 (Prince).

Felt like July today..we got 89 with a real feel of 96 today.....Does anyone know is it supposed to rain tom..I am reading mixed forecast

Went to a winery/orchard up in Warwick NY yesterday.50% of trees now have color.It was sunny and too warm.Ruined the effect of a nice Fall cool day.

Another warm day today. Yesterday 87. 50% chance of rain, a mixed bag after 4 pm. Maybe thunderstorms late tonight up here. It was warmer last night than I expected. The air stayed warm like a July night. However, it is raining leaves here. I am watching them fall while drinking my morning coffee.

Third straight day hitting 90* here - not my ideal for late September. But, about to move on. Frontal system moving in from the Midwest to cool it down the next couple days. A line of storms moving across PA now. If they hold together would come through here by midnight. Either way should be about 15 degrees cooler tomorrow.
And long range (if it holds) shows a cool down from Oct 3 to 7 with lows in the 40s and highs primarily in the 60s. GFS even showed a coastal low developing (chilly rain) in the mid-Atlantic around 10/3 or 10/4.

i am sick and tired of the hot and humid weather.today its was 88deg on the first day of fall .on top of it where is the rain it hasent rain in long time

Leaves up here are changing (curling up, falling off) without vibrant colors. It is 56 here at about 9 am with a cloudy sky I have heard some chitter (and some chatter) around the water cooler that while some say a drop in temps in Oct, some say a return to air conditioner hot weather for a spell. Does anyone have a handle on the temps coming up as best as can be prognosticated?

The Euro has record-breaking highs next Tuesday and Wednesday in the 90s which would be a plus 25 departure. Saturday also looks to be very warm. It's all going to depend how far north the warm front gets and if we see any sunshine otherwise I take the under on those Temps