Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

With the temperatures being marginal at best, I wonder if this could start as rain and change over to snow as the system intensifies?

[amugs]

GFS again here 12Z has a pretty well placed ULL about 50-75 miles more S would be optimum

[docstox12]

GFS again here 12Z has a pretty well placed ULL about 50-75 miles more S would be optimum

Hoping for that S shift as NWS right now is saying a slop storm in my area which I would hate to see.

[heehaw453]

GFS again here 12Z has a pretty well placed ULL about 50-75 miles more S would be optimum

Hoping for that S shift as NWS right now is saying a slop storm in my area which I would hate to see.

Unless that ULL is much further to the north, HV is in a good spot for this IMO. I don't believe this is going to be overly complex. If you are north of the ULL, then you will do well. IMO 2 more days are needed before getting too excited.

[Frank_Wx]

Godzilla for interior on latest GFS. Not sure we will see the south trend with this one :/

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12Z GFS.

Good for the HV and NWNJ not so good for most others on the forum. This far out pretty meaningless for all just posting for fun. I would take nothing from this at this early stage, other than the potential next weekend for someone to have a nice long duration storm rain, snow, mix, or both.

[heehaw453]

CMC ULL starts off in a great position for us, then makes a leap to the NE.  Basically making this a non event.  Best bet now are the ensembles to smooth out the bs.  

What CP says is accurate though, in that we all may get skunked in the end, just less likely further north you go.

[heehaw453]

This is why we have to be very cautious with this.  Just an op run, but demonstrates the importance of the ULL trajectory.  Decent ULL location nice ridging up to the NE. Everything looks solid.



Then ridge breaks down and ULL lift sharply NE.  Mid levels then get flooded with warm air.  The upshot this becomes a non event except for maybe elevations over 1200' feet NEPA northward.

The ULL actually is at a very good latitude for most of ride.  It just the cut at the very end that does us in.  Regardless though it's close enough to be of interest ATTM.

[docstox12]

NWS forecast discussion says at this juncture a mostly all rain event with maybe some "wintry" precip inland.They have me snow to rain/snow back to snow ATM.It will be fun to see how this all plays out during the week.

[frank 638]

For me national Weather Service has me snow to rain for sat and Sunday

[dkodgis]

Yeah, the cold air does not seem to be there for the weekend, not a deciding factor. Let me be wrong.

[jmanley32]

GFS has two huge storms on the 30th and Feb 3rd, obviously fantasy range but they are all inland treats, coast is toast, but at this juncture the signal is there and thats what matters. Surface map means nada this early.

[heehaw453]

Regardless of what 18Z GFS snow maps show don't think this a good look for the area.  You want that ULL at West Virginia not PA.  It's similar to Euro in that the ULL moves sharply north east from KY to PA.  That won't cut it.  The storm does tend to align fairly well at 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb, but yet doesn't really intensify because it doesn't dig.  

Margin of error with ULL placement and trajectory at this range is probably few hundred miles or so.  However, any more trending showing a failure of the trough to dig more and having sharp NE movement, then i'd be very skeptical of this event.  

[heehaw453]

This could be workable for the HV & NEPA and is better than 12Z run.  I will stress margins on this are razor thin with respect to the ULL movement and mid level temps.  A tick north and this will be confined to I-90 corridor.  The concern I have is the movement of the ULL becomes very sharp towards the north east.  It's only after that sharp movement that the ULL feels the block. You want the ULL to stall before that north east movement, then things would be much different.  It is what it is with regard to this winter.

Tomorrow after 12Z should really narrow the goal posts for the ULL.





12 hour later.  A complete stall of the ULL

[docstox12]

Heehaw453, NWS must be seeing this as my forecast keeps getting snowier and less rainy.Very interesting analysis of the ULL.Seems to be trending a bit better the last 24 hours.It will be fun to watch the runs up to Friday morning.

[heehaw453]

Heehaw453, NWS must be seeing this as my forecast keeps getting snowier and less rainy.Very interesting analysis of the ULL.Seems to be trending a bit better the last 24 hours.It will be fun to watch the runs up to Friday morning.

Yes Doc your area is workable. You guys up there are savvy and know the bust potential. But I'm rooting for you!

[Frank_Wx]

Started a thread

[Frank_Wx]

The good news: the tropical Pacific will help the PNA stay neutral or slightly positive as we head into February.

The bad news: it will struggle to go full latitude because the EPO region looks to remain positive. Further, the AO/NAO look to stay positive. To have these 3 indices positive with just 1 signal on our side is not ideal. This sounds like a very above normal pattern but the ridging over central Canada will continue and we likely stay normal to below normal. There will be snow chances but I am not particularly excited about much right now.

[weatherwatchermom]

The good news: the tropical Pacific will help the PNA stay neutral or slightly positive as we head into February.

The bad news: it will struggle to go full latitude because the EPO region looks to remain positive. Further, the AO/NAO look to stay positive. To have these 3 indices positive with just 1 signal on our side is not ideal. This sounds like a very above normal pattern but the ridging over central Canada will continue and we likely stay normal to below normal. There will be snow chances but I am not particularly excited about much right now.

thanks Frank for the update......we had such high hopes for this winter...I have adjusted my hopes to at least getting more than the 11 inches than we got last year down in my neck of the woods...I am usually a glass half full type of gal..but am feeling down about this weather.not ready to throw in any towel..but just a little sad...we had swarms of birds around the last week..are they coming back already? cold and dry wet and warm...

[heehaw453]

Another cutter seems possible towards the end of January. I believe for most in terms of January snow totals what you have received to date is what you will wind up with. Maybe February renders better fortunes.

[Frank_Wx]

The good news: the tropical Pacific will help the PNA stay neutral or slightly positive as we head into February.

The bad news: it will struggle to go full latitude because the EPO region looks to remain positive. Further, the AO/NAO look to stay positive. To have these 3 indices positive with just 1 signal on our side is not ideal. This sounds like a very above normal pattern but the ridging over central Canada will continue and we likely stay normal to below normal. There will be snow chances but I am not particularly excited about much right now.

thanks Frank for the update......we had such high hopes for this winter...I have adjusted my hopes to at least getting more than the 11 inches than we got last year down in my neck of the woods...I am usually a glass half full type of gal..but am feeling down about this weather.not ready to throw in any towel..but just a little sad...we had swarms of birds around the last week..are they coming back already?  cold and dry wet and warm...

I give a lot of credit to Isotherm, aka Tom, who was one of the few forecasting a below normal snowfall this year for our area. I believe he is one of the best long range forecasters in our time. Many believed Modoki El Nino. low solar, east based QBO, etc. etc. would deliver an active snowy winter. It is not working out.

This is why I no longer issue winter outlooks. I do not have enough knowledge of the science to put out something like that with high confidence. In my opinion, many other people, some professional, should give up issuing them too.

Another cutter seems possible towards the end of January.  I believe for most in terms of January snow totals what you have received to date is what you will wind up with.  Maybe February renders better fortunes.

You have been a fantastic contributor by the way. Thank you.

[docstox12]

Frank, agree on Isotherm, he saw this scenario way back in October, truly incredible long range accuracy.The rest of January follows his projections.I have seen snowstorm after snowstorm hitting the Central and North central CONUS since early November, a pattern set in stone all this time.

[heehaw453]

The good news: the tropical Pacific will help the PNA stay neutral or slightly positive as we head into February.

The bad news: it will struggle to go full latitude because the EPO region looks to remain positive. Further, the AO/NAO look to stay positive. To have these 3 indices positive with just 1 signal on our side is not ideal. This sounds like a very above normal pattern but the ridging over central Canada will continue and we likely stay normal to below normal. There will be snow chances but I am not particularly excited about much right now.

thanks Frank for the update......we had such high hopes for this winter...I have adjusted my hopes to at least getting more than the 11 inches than we got last year down in my neck of the woods...I am usually a glass half full type of gal..but am feeling down about this weather.not ready to throw in any towel..but just a little sad...we had swarms of birds around the last week..are they coming back already?  cold and dry wet and warm...

I give a lot of credit to Isotherm, aka Tom, who was one of the few forecasting a below normal snowfall this year for our area. I believe he is one of the best long range forecasters in our time. Many believed Modoki El Nino. low solar, east based QBO, etc. etc. would deliver an active snowy winter. It is not working out.

This is why I no longer issue winter outlooks. I do not have enough knowledge of the science to put out something like that with high confidence. In my opinion, many other people, some professional, should give up issuing them too.  

Another cutter seems possible towards the end of January.  I believe for most in terms of January snow totals what you have received to date is what you will wind up with.  Maybe February renders better fortunes.

You have been a fantastic contributor by the way. Thank you.

Thanks Frank.  I want to echo what you said about Isotherm.  He took quite a bit of criticism last year due to his snowfall projections for the big cities.  His long range forecast this year has been exceptionally accurate.  He has stood steadfast to his forecast even for New England where in December one could have easily second guessed oneself and started to waffle.  Places like Worcester had over 27" in December.  Pattern went hostile henceforth from mid December for the majority of the time.  Minimal high latitude blocking and a pacific fire hose, I believe pretty much on par with his projections.

I will say though that my latest readings from him it doesn't sound like he's too keen on anything before latter part of February. And even that is not confident. Moral of the story is don't expect much.

[amugs]

Reason why is the PV is strong and locked up all teh cold air and lots of Low pressure over teh arctic - they are going have a banger of a few weeks up there with great cold and snow as this sucker retracts.
Tom (Isotherm) is a phenomenal forecaster - he got scorned last year by his call and vowed to learn and not let that happen again and boy is he good.
The analogs were there with the weak nino, NE Pac Blob of warmer waters, a descending E QBO, blocking over the NAO region persisting with teh SST waters up there, low solar etc. BUT the IO Dipole, GWO along with the GLAAM I believe did us in. Watch we have a tremendous reversal in late February to delay spring,

[docstox12]

Nothing worse than cold and rain lasting until the end of May.I've seen that too many times, usually after a crap winter that is mild and sow deficient.

[phil155]

Would be nice to get 1 system to truly thread the needle this year and give the region a good solid snowfall. Not expecting anything earth shattering this year as the pattern is not good for us but 1 good one would be nice

[Frank_Wx]

Would be nice to get 1 system to truly thread the needle this year and give the region a good solid snowfall. Not expecting anything earth shattering this year as the pattern is not good for us but 1 good one would be nice

Agree! Maybe February or March holds surprises.

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