Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[heehaw453]

As of now on the 10 day, most highs are mid 40s on average and lows in most cases barely hit freezing. Several storms on the horizon but with the looks of these temps, they won't be white for my area.

Current guidance suggests next shot of more sustained cold air is after 2/5. Before that your expectations sound very reasonable IYBY for wet in lieu of white. We need a lot to go right for this weekend that's for sure.

[nutleyblizzard]

12z Canadian with the Super Bowl blizzard.

[devsman]

A storm that big doesn't need cold, it produces its own cold. If it hits benchmark, we snow to the coast.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12z Canadian with the Super Bowl blizzard.

The Snowfall totals from 12Z Nutley was referencing.

There have been several operational runs from several different models now showing similar output, and then they go back to 0 on the next run. The point being there are enough alarm bells going off to at least make this worth watching atm.

[Radz]

GFS not too bad either

[SoulSingMG]

The 12z GGEM just went bonkers for next weekend.

I wouldn’t normally post this outside of banter but I feel after last winter and this one (so far), we deserve a little excitement and eye candy.

[amugs]

Encouraging signs are coming into play in the LR for sure but we shall see.

The MJO forecast is very positive as it heads into phases 2 & 3





EPO gong Neutral to Negative - big help here in the pattern change




Sorry Jman and Hector take yuor posts to Banter if you are done with this ratter of winter so far, we still have 6 - 8 weeks to go and can end very strong. There will be much meteorological discussion going on here this week as we start to see our leader's positivism and the pattern showing what we have been waiting for this season.

The + EAMT - East Asian Mountain Torque is taking all that convective warmth from the IO (Indian Ocean) Dipole and Trop Equatorial Pacific and just sending it almost perpendicular to the sky as this warm air is sent straight up into and collects in the stratosphere. Need to see teh coupling charts of GFS to see if we have a decoupling of both the Stratosphere and Troposphere if so then hold my beer!! (that means boom of the pattern possibilities).

[Frank_Wx]

12z Canadian with the Super Bowl blizzard.

Godzilla mad Giants ain’t in it

[Radz]

Euro says no again...

[nutleyblizzard]

Euro says no again...

The Euro is no longer invincible like it used to be. Unless the EPS backs off I wouldn't be too concerned.

[heehaw453]

There is not good agreement ATTM of a bomb coastal among the models yet. Some models keep the southern stream separate from the northern stream like today's operational Euro.

This is a decent signal though on GEFS at this range. I'm getting more convinced though we're at least not looking at a cutter which gives us 0 chance with the antecedent air mass being marginal.

[jmanley32]

You guts didn't get my post bout June being the new winter was in jest? Lol. Anyways holy cow. 25 inches!! I hate being in bullseye 5 days out but heck I'm hoping. If not won't be too much of a disappointment as this year gotten used to it. I think at very least we see a major noreaster with high winds and snow or rain. Let's hope for the snow.

[jmanley32]

There is not good agreement ATTM of a bomb coastal among the models yet.  Some models keep the southern stream separate from the northern stream like today's operational Euro.  

This is a decent signal though on GEFS at this range.  I'm getting more convinced though we're at least not looking at a cutter which gives us 0 chance with the antecedent air mass being marginal.

0 chance of a storm or 0 of a cutter?

[jmanley32]

12z Canadian with the Super Bowl blizzard.

Godzilla mad Giants ain’t in it

man if that played out as snow maps showed NYC metro and tristate get roidzilla while long Island gets skunked. That's a thing of beauty but fantasy attm. At least it's not 384 hrs though. Or 240 for gem I mean.

[billg315]

There is not good agreement ATTM of a bomb coastal among the models yet.  Some models keep the southern stream separate from the northern stream like today's operational Euro.  

This is a decent signal though on GEFS at this range.  I'm getting more convinced though we're at least not looking at a cutter which gives us 0 chance with the antecedent air mass being marginal.

0 chance of a storm or 0 of a cutter?

0 chance of a snow event if it was a cutter since not enough cold air would be in place ahead of the warm air overrunning. A coastal on the other hand could bring its own cold air to the party allowing for snow.

[amugs]

GGEM had a massive upgrade yjis last week computer process wise and from what I've read physics algorithms wise. A real test to see if it does well with this storm. Blew last week bigly!!

[sroc4]

12z Canadian with the Super Bowl blizzard.

Godzilla mad Giants ain’t in it

man if that played out as snow maps showed NYC metro and tristate get roidzilla while long Island gets skunked. That's a thing of beauty but fantasy attm. At least it's not 384 hrs though. Or 240 for gem I mean.

Say what now. 2/3rds of LI gets 12-24” of snow. Another 1/4 gets 3-12” and the south fork gets 1-3”. Not sure if I’d call that skunked. Lol. Jon. Yer funny

[jmanley32]

12z Canadian with the Super Bowl blizzard.

Godzilla mad Giants ain’t in it

man if that played out as snow maps showed NYC metro and tristate get roidzilla while long Island gets skunked. That's a thing of beauty but fantasy attm. At least it's not 384 hrs though. Or 240 for gem I mean.

Say what now. 2/3rds of LI gets 12-24” of snow. Another 1/4 gets 3-12” and the south fork gets 1-3”. Not sure if I’d call that skunked. Lol. Jon. Yer funny

Okay well relative to about 50 miles to the west. Doesn't matter anyways, I would be hella surprised if this happened even half of it.

[jmanley32]

So frank are you excited? We still see models playing out a big storm in some respects and you said if we made it through the weekend you would be.

[sroc4]

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Regarding the possible Super Bowl storm the real tracking begins starting tomorrow. Everything up to this point, well maybe not everything, but most of it thus far has been taken with a grain of salt. There are a few things that have been starting to come into focus but the fine tuning takes place as we head deeper into the week.

Remember first it’s big picture. Will we have a storm? What’s the ridge doing out west, what’s the 500mb vorticty doing?  Timing? Strength? Position?
Then it’s storm track. OTS, BM, hugger, apps runner, cutter?  Knowing 500will help us answer this.
Then it’s temperature profiles;
then who sees what.

So be patient, and keep your expectations realistic depending on where you live.

We Track!

[jmanley32]

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Regarding the possible Super Bowl storm the real tracking begins starting tomorrow. Everything up to this point, well maybe not everything, but most of it thus far has been taken with a grain of salt. There are a few things that have coming into focus but the fine tuning takes place as we head into the week.

Remember first it’s big picture. Will we have a storm? What’s the ridge doing out west, what’s the 500mb vorticty doing?  Timing? Strength? Position?
Then it’s storm track. OTS, BM, hugger, apps runner, cutter?  Knowing 500will help us answer this.
Then it’s temperature profiles;
then who sees what.

So be patient, and keep your expectations realistic depending on where you live.

We Track!

Thats a hell of a lot of stuff for it to go right LOL, I am keeping my expectations at 0 being near the coast.  BUT after seeing what your talking of and how it pans out will up that number as week goes on potentially. I normally just let all hope take me over but thats exhausting and I end up causing irritating comments so I will just focus on reality and watch what you guys say.  I do not have wxbell anymore so posts on the Euro would be great. Busy week ahead, heres to tracking!

[Irish]

Crazy to think there could be snow next weekend, currently high temps are predicted to be mid 40s heading to 50 and lows are above freezing. Would love to see that change but that'd be a huge swing?

Btw, how do the forecasts change so much, cause I've seen where that happens. Why aren't meteorologists able to see that happening or do they just feel, when predicting that far out, that the chances are likely?

[aiannone]

Pivotal weather now has precip type, snow maps, QPF and 500mb for the Euro

[Radz]

Pivotal weather now has precip type, snow maps, QPF and 500mb for the Euro

And now the UKMET as well on Pivotal...

[Irish]

What does that mean aiannone and Radz?

[heehaw453]

Regarding weekend threat
Amazing at 130 hours I feel this confident on the storm. I'll continue to keep an eye on it, but here's my thoughts.  
Let it prove me wrong!  Would love that.

High confidence in marginal antecedent air mass for our area.
High confidence this storm is going to move in the Atlantic and not inland.
High confidence it will become a strong strong storm with a phase of the two streams of the jet stream.
High confidence impact to us with regard to snowfall will be light if any.
Best chance of significant snow from this is for folks in Down East Maine and Nova Scotia.

I think we need to look beyond the 2/5 time frame for next shot at snow.
There is decent ensemble agreement for +PNA/-NAO developing.  This combo you look for at especially at the coast.  It slows the atmospheric flow down and tends to trap cold high pressure for much longer periods of time.  Cold air will also be in greater supply due to -EPO preceding this time frame.  Western Atlantic Ridge also would prevent the OTS escape of a storm.

If and that is a BIG IF we get anything like this look the coast will have its best shot at significant snow since March 2019 in this incredibly hostile pattern we've had since mid December.

[Radz]

What does that mean aiannone and Radz?

Just means you don't need a paid subscription to view those model runs on Pivotalweather...

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