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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:22 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And then there's the 6Z GFS operational. A mere 30 inches over Orange County. The HV in NY and NWNJ get buried. Only 13 days away, very high confidence level this happens. The GFS long range has been clairvoyant this year.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Gfs_as14
bad cp you know fantasy maps go in banter lol. Or have we tossed all sensibility due to this dead winter and hoping a off run produces 13 days out. Has it really come to this? You prolly have a better bet at winning the power ball 3x in a row. All in jest my friend in case it came across serious.

You're right, of course it does belong in banter and I was being very sarcastic. I think power ball would be better odds right now than something like this verifying 12 days out with this God awful pattern we're stuck in.
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:25 am

You can see with the latest ensembles that the NAM (arctic oscillations) state is much more + instead of neutral in beginning of March. That tells me this cold spell end of February into beginning of March will be not too deep and not long at all.  I was hoping for a more neutral NAM state as we got into beginning of March.  Some may look at this and see the building ridge towards Alaska and hope for -EPO to get more cold into the area.  My guess is you'll continue to see deep low pressures floating around the arctic beating down the ridges.  It's just been too long and too consistent for me to believe otherwise.  The last three March's have produced good snows for the area and I think that string is in serious jeopardy.  Just don't see any light at the end of the tunnel.

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Post by phil155 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:44 am

Do you mean to tell me that the 6Z GFS calling for a ton of snow over the area is not a lock? how can that be

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:00 am

@phil155 wrote:Do you mean to tell me that the 6Z GFS calling for a ton of snow over the area is not a lock? how can that be  

I think it renders 4' on the 12Z runs and gives us 1' for next week's storm.  Come on GFS!!!  End banter. LOL

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:24 pm

Lol 12z buries northern ne under 4 to 5 ft....even that I don't buy. That's one massive bomb of a storm that almost stalls.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:34 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And then there's the 6Z GFS operational. A mere 30 inches over Orange County. The HV in NY and NWNJ get buried. Only 13 days away, very high confidence level this happens. The GFS long range has been clairvoyant this year.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Gfs_as14
bad cp you know fantasy maps go in banter lol. Or have we tossed all sensibility due to this dead winter and hoping a off run produces 13 days out. Has it really come to this? You prolly have a better bet at winning the power ball 3x in a row. All in jest my friend in case it came across serious.

You're right, of course it does belong in banter and I was being very sarcastic. I think power ball would be better odds right now than something like this verifying 12 days out with this God awful pattern we're stuck in.
totally kidding u post where you want 12z is even crazier but for ne. But no not happening. If it did let's say here would that be the biggest march storm ever or top 10?
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:19 am

There is only one thing left to do: I am putting out my deck furniture and opening the deck up in two weeks. Like washing the car brings rain the next day, I am sure my deck actions will be met with (some) snow.
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Post by mwilli on Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:55 am

Damian same here,since I'm gonna be moving,gonna put the snowblower up for sale...it's time

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:36 am

@dkodgis wrote:There is only one thing left to do:  I am putting out my deck furniture and opening the deck up in two weeks. Like washing the car brings rain the next day, I am sure my deck actions will be met with (some) snow.

Continue to see +2 sigma AO and -1.5 sigma PNA into first week of March. Confidence is growing on closing the snow books for even the interior. A sloppy few inches cannot be ruled out before March 15, but I think it's a struggle to even obtain that.

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Post by dkodgis on Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:53 pm

I see this weekend it is back to cold but wait, there's more. Along with this Ginsu knife set you get warmer weather coming back by this time next week. As soon as it gets warmer, it gets rainy.

Signed,
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:07 pm

@dkodgis wrote:I see this weekend it is back to cold but wait, there's more. Along with this Ginsu knife set you get warmer weather coming back by this time next week.  As soon as it gets warmer, it gets rainy.  

Signed,
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This is just ridiculous!!! We are planning to start our spring projects...and its only Feb...this weekend will throw us off...but next week they say Thur might even go up to 70!!
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:20 pm

Yet another cutter with the midwest and Ohio Valley getting the snow.Getting close to towel throwing day March 15.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:41 pm

Got this stat from another site. If Toronto gets over 7 inches of snow from this system it will be their largest single day snowfall in over a decade.

Incredible when you think about their latitude and proximity to Lake Ontario which for snow lovers they are unfortunately on the wrong side of. For some reason that makes me feel a little better about this misreable non winter we're having. At least I've seen 21 such events (7 inches or more from a storm) since 2011. Makes me feel guilty.

Almost forgot, thanks for the article Doc. I had seen that sometime after Tom Petty died but read it again. Interesting article, interesting guy.
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:07 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Got this stat from another site. If Toronto gets over 7 inches of snow from this system it will be their largest single day snowfall in over a decade.

Incredible when you think about their latitude and proximity to Lake Ontario which for snow lovers they are unfortunately on the wrong side of. For some reason that makes me feel a little better about this misreable non winter we're having. At least I've seen 21 such events (7 inches or more from a storm) since 2011. Makes me feel guilty.

Almost forgot, thanks for the article Doc. I had seen that sometime after Tom Petty died but read it again. Interesting article, interesting guy.

Wow, that is amazing CP with Toronto so far north of us.It's like living 20 miles away from the Tug Hill and missing all the big lake snows.

That Tom Petty article was great, loved his appreciation of a good cup of coffee.Down to earth, wonderful guy he was.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:04 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Got this stat from another site. If Toronto gets over 7 inches of snow from this system it will be their largest single day snowfall in over a decade.

Incredible when you think about their latitude and proximity to Lake Ontario which for snow lovers they are unfortunately on the wrong side of. For some reason that makes me feel a little better about this misreable non winter we're having. At least I've seen 21 such events (7 inches or more from a storm) since 2011. Makes me feel guilty.

Almost forgot, thanks for the article Doc. I had seen that sometime after Tom Petty died but read it again. Interesting article, interesting guy.

I always find it interesting regarding climates around the world. Case in point.

Edinburgh, Scotland ~ 56 N averages about ~20"/year of snowfall. Average January temps 43/34 F. Elevation ~ 154'

Labrador City, CA ~ 52.5 N averages ~ 200"/year of snowfall. Average January temps -8/-18 F. Elevation ~ 1800' Just about every one of our lakes cutters is 6-12" for those folks.

The big difference in the climate is the proximity to gulf stream waters which warm Great Britain/Ireland and Iceland. Actually water in general is one of two huge reasons why antarctic is significantly colder than the arctic. The other being elevation.

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:34 am

Perhaps, and I mean perhaps, there is a small window for winter weather around 6-7thISH.  Don’t look any more into details ATT. Just keep an eye on that time frame. In 2-3 days from now it likely is gone. In addition to a few possible upper level big picture features that give this a small chance the next NJStrong meet up is set for the 7th, so that in itself give this threat an extra boost of credibility.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:00 am

This is nuke for SNE as shown at the 500mb as shown on the 0Z Euro.  Full negative tilt and super amped up short wave.  I think SNE and possibly LI should definitely watch the progression of this.  Probably going to develop too late and too far east for most other folks though.  The ensembles are just too far wide right to have much interest in it for me ATTM.  

Pretty healthy storm as shown, and worth keeping an eye on with no expectations whatsoever.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Euro5013

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:15 am

@heehaw453 wrote:This is nuke for SNE as shown at the 500mb as shown on the 0Z Euro.  Full negative tilt and super amped up short wave.  I think SNE and possibly LI should definitely watch the progression of this.  Probably going to develop too late and too far east for most other folks though.  The ensembles are just too far wide right to have much interest in it for me ATTM.  

Pretty healthy storm as shown, and worth keeping an eye on with no expectations whatsoever.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Euro5013

I have a feeling this one will miss east and those of us getting together Saturday in Morristown will be saluting it with several cocktails

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:25 am

Last nights OZ Canadian depiction of next Saturday. Right now 10 inches would seem like 40. I need about 5 inches to keep this from being the worst winter snow wise in my memory, it's already the top 3 warmest.

Although as Frank said this probably develops to far east it's 6 days away so, I can still dream.

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:43 pm

This is kind of close on the 18Z GFS.  Put that offshore shortwave energy back a bit west and you'd have a major snowstorm as the northern stream catches it and rides it up.

Look at it this way in that things have been cutters and coastal huggers this season, I'm not so sure this is a bad spot 120 hours out to be honest.  The verdict will come within the next 48 hours, but IMO if it misses it'll be a close call especially for LI.

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:23 pm

That Western Ridge will be key. Let’s see if it can stay amplified. MJO signal is questionable.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by algae888 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:34 am

@sroc4 wrote:That Western Ridge will be key. Let’s see if it can stay amplified. MJO signal is questionable.
Scott I believe phase 4 mjo in March is a cold signal
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:55 am

The ridge to west is important, but also in play is this transient low circled.  That must block up the atmosphere a bit in order to have a chance of the northern stream catching the offshore shortwave energy before it slides too far offshore.  As shown in last night's Euro this is somewhat close to kaboom, but the offshore shortwave energy is just a few hours out in front of the northern stream energy and hence it explodes well offshore.  Need the atmosphere a hair slower.  

Not happy about +AO in phasing system due to fast flow, but of course that is a constant this winter.  Got to say low probability stuff here.  I'll give it until tomorrow, but I think another good one for Newfoundland ATTM.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:54 am

@algae888 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:That Western Ridge will be key. Let’s see if it can stay amplified. MJO signal is questionable.
Scott I believe phase 4 mjo in March is a cold signal

Here are the temp composites for Jan/Feb/March, Feb/March/Apr, and March/Apr/May respectively. As you can see phase 4 is a transition phase with the composite being a mostly warmer phase until March April May. At least through these composites def not cold. We shall see.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Mjo_jf10
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Mjo_fm10
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 27 Mjo_ma10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:02 am

So chance of some snow this Friday, which at this point I'll take what I can get even if this looks like one of those snows that melts as it falls. But that GFS run this morning for next Thursday (3/12) looks real nice. lol. I know, I know, 9 days off, but at least it was something to get excited about. And truthfully, that March 10-15 time-frame has produced some big snowstorms for this region in the past so it would fit with that tradition.
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