Long Range Thread 19.0

Page 28 of 28 Previous  1 ... 15 ... 26, 27, 28

Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by dkodgis on Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:09 am

How many times have we seen our crocuses and daffodils and forsythia covered with snow? We all know this can happen. I was thinking the other day that the stock market is for long-term investments but we seem to pay too much attention to the market all the time (Doc, I bet you are falling off your chair, laughing!); I am starting to feel that way about the weather. I am paying too much attention to it, trying to get wish snow into my life for the inner kid in me. Next Thursday's weather is like horses off on the race; as we get closer, our fortunes rise and fall. Which will it be?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1172
Reputation : 93
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:19 am

That offshore shortwave energy on 12Z GFS is very close to interacting with the northern stream in a decent spot for us.  We are not getting an ideal phase here due to lack of blocking (+AO/+NAO), but I could definitely see this blowing up a bit closer to us before it tries to lift out.  This is like tantalizing close.

I see path to good snow two ways (both rather low probability ATTM IMO):

1.  Get the western ridge a hair sharper to force the northern stream down faster.
2.  A bit more influence from the departing transient low to slow the atmosphere down.


Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Gfs50012

heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:46 am

Thinking some white rain is very possible for Friday evening. Hopefully the March flow acts in our favor, but I just don't see the departing low slowing things down that much or the ridge becoming sharp enough to make a difference. I anticipate mood flakes on Friday night, which is better than nothing I suppose.
bobjohnsonforthehall
bobjohnsonforthehall

Posts : 242
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:55 am

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Thinking some white rain is very possible for Friday evening. Hopefully the March flow acts in our favor, but I just don't see the departing low slowing things down that much or the ridge becoming sharp enough to make a difference. I anticipate mood flakes on Friday night, which is better than nothing I suppose.
Definitely. We'd be well below freezing above 2000 feet, but the surface temps well above 32 for white rain. For now I think you are spot on unless we see some changes at the 500mb. Won't take drastic changes, but changes nonetheless.

heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:02 pm

Euro ensembles have quite a few with significant hits. Maybe 20-25% of them. That is more than I would have thought. Plus still four days out. Not holding my breath but certainly bears continued watching until the proverbial Lucy with the football action begins.
bobjohnsonforthehall
bobjohnsonforthehall

Posts : 242
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:55 pm

Most likely this will be minimal if any impact to us.  

No cold antecedent air mass means this storm is going to have to crank to allow for dynamic cooling right down to the surface which will be most difficult to cool.  We also are battling a +AO/+NAO (albeit somewhat relaxed) which means slowing the atmosphere isn't coming easy and no real cold press.  But we keep seeing a decent amount (~50%) of EPS split out significant impacts (>= 4") because synoptically this isn't a bad setup.  That transient low (slow atmosphere a tad) and that western ridge (PNA) may make it work, albeit not likely.  IMO this would be damn near a slam dunk with even moderately negative NAO.  But alas...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 500eur11

heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by GreyBeard on Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:19 pm


GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 470
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : Eastern Nassau County

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:38 pm


I would say barely a glimmer. The way things have been this year, I can for sure see scenario #1, snow to the north and south, nada here. Of course, the meet-up is Saturday, and we had to cancel the last one due to a weather event, what are the odds? geek


_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4130
Reputation : 57
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 58
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:06 am

Hear ye, hear ye stick the fork in ye threat.

The spacing of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave energy isn't going to allow for any meaningful impact to our area. The atmospheric flow is just too fast to overcome compliments of our perpetual +NAM state.

A long shot it was and the same impact it becomes la garbage in the winter as such.

GEFS tries to show some mild -NAO towards March 18. Just think it'll be too little too late around here and ye old snow books are getting ready to close.

heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:25 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Hear ye, hear ye stick the fork in ye threat.  

The spacing of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave energy isn't going to allow for any meaningful impact to our area.  The atmospheric flow is just too fast to overcome compliments of our perpetual +NAM state.

A long shot it was and the same impact it becomes la garbage in the winter as such.  

GEFS tries to show some mild -NAO towards March 18.  Just think it'll be too little too late around here and ye old snow books are getting ready to close.

Its over
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4391
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:54 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Hear ye, hear ye stick the fork in ye threat.  

The spacing of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave energy isn't going to allow for any meaningful impact to our area.  The atmospheric flow is just too fast to overcome compliments of our perpetual +NAM state.

A long shot it was and the same impact it becomes la garbage in the winter as such.  

GEFS tries to show some mild -NAO towards March 18.  Just think it'll be too little too late around here and ye old snow books are getting ready to close.

Its over

Yes. Hibernation is coming early this year.

heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by billg315 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:38 pm

I've always been a bit contrarian, even if only to be proven wrong for it. As much as I want to say "it's over" because frankly I'm sick of this (lack of) winter and ready to move onto Spring . . . I am still watching March 12. There is definitely a system consistently showing up just off or on the Mid-Atlantic coast on that date. The exact location has bounced back and forth but just north and west of it, it is consistently showing cold and frankly lots of snow and frozen precip. If the positioning of such a system were just right, it could be that sneaky "one storm in a bad pattern" we've been looking for. Is it likely the way this winter has gone? No. But I won't write it off yet. Because without hope, what have we?
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2993
Reputation : 162
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:15 pm

@billg315 wrote:I've always been a bit contrarian, even if only to be proven wrong for it. As much as I want to say "it's over" because frankly I'm sick of this (lack of) winter and ready to move onto Spring . . . I am still watching March 12. There is definitely a system consistently showing up just off or on the Mid-Atlantic coast on that date. The exact location has bounced back and forth but just north and west of it, it is consistently showing cold and frankly lots of snow and frozen precip. If the positioning of such a system were just right, it could be that sneaky "one storm in a bad pattern" we've been looking for. Is it likely the way this winter has gone? No. But I won't write it off yet. Because without hope, what have we?

I’m right there with you Bill. And even those who have written it off likely haven’t written it off.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6464
Reputation : 279
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:36 am

Still a chance for mood flakes for Frid/Sat

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6464
Reputation : 279
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:55 am

Definitely Bill always a chance that Mother Nature will surprise us especially in March. GEFS definitely has some support for a storm during that 3/12 time frame and so does EPS to some extent, but based on climatology, the 500mb NAM state and what model ensembles are showing currently I'm thinking more wet than white.

The GFS operational has a nasty habit of showing a cold and snowy solution at this range.


heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by billg315 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:53 am

Yeah I'm far from betting the house on it. But, I can't keep my eyes off those seductive GFS runs.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2993
Reputation : 162
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:46 am

FWIW and it's probably way too early for any op analysis, but season is coming to an end, so why not?  The Euro has definitely trended more towards the GFS w.r.t. to 3/12 threat window.  Just a few days ago it didn't have the storm.  Then it had it, but the short wave energy was way NW of us.  Now the short wave energy is "pretty close" (at this range) to where the GFS has it.  GFS has been steadfast that it cuts underneath us.

The surface difference between the two is rain (Euro) versus significant snow (GFS).

The differences at this point is the ridge as shown in pictures. GFS has a sharp one allowing for digging trough, while Euro is flat allowing for more northerly trajectory of the short wave.  Also noted in both cases the short wave is robust and there is a good connected moisture supply. So ATTM watch it and wait for trends.

GFS
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Gfs31210

Euro
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Euro3110

Moisture supply 700mb
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Moistu10

heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by dkodgis on Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:43 am

Speaking of trends, high temps look lovely for the next 10 days
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1172
Reputation : 93
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:17 pm

Where in the great of land of Noah was this this winter?? Snow in April for some, good possibility! Once this breaks down the SE ridge will flex its muscle and we will warm...rapidly. Go from winterish to summer when the breakdown is over.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh120-168.gif.acd560ad47d787053fa9177d830512f7

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10738
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by Fededle22 on Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:06 pm

Hello All
I hope all are staying safe and healthy. Over the past few weeks throughout all of this crisis, I have continued to come back to this site to see how everyone is doing but also to get insight as to when we can expect to get warmer temperatures. Over the past few years, April has been very unstable with cool temperatures and a lot of rain. I was hoping this year would be different but it doesn't look like the trend will change. Anyone out there willing to hazard a guess as to when we will consistently get into the 60s and not raining 4-5 days of the week?
Fededle22
Fededle22

Posts : 137
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-03-08
Location : West Orange, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by amugs on Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:57 pm

Freddie looks like the second half of April as of now to latter part.
Tjis would be incredible if it were to occur and just might due to the block that is holding in Davis Straights during this time frame. The deep purple map show the jet which would be on roads for this time of year with the polar vortex still hanging about. Where the heck was this in Jan or Feb!!
An intense Nor that is only ...10 days away!!
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Img_2016
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Img_2050

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10738
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by amugs on Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:32 pm

Here comes the last blast of spring cold
https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1246521780635869186?s=19

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10738
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:15 pm

...because we deserve a little hope right now. I love you

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 65d6a310

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 244a8e10
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2648
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by dkodgis on Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:39 am

Tomorrow, a lot of rain and wind, wind, wind. Red alert on the wind I think
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1172
Reputation : 93
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Page 28 of 28 Previous  1 ... 15 ... 26, 27, 28

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum