Re: July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:03 pm

Pretty solid CAPE and lift in the southern areas.

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:07 pm

Precipitable water values only around 1.6 1.7, not too high.

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:42 pm

I'll let you guys know if I die or not in this thunderstorm

by **Dtone** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:03 pm

Blinding cloud to ground lightning

by **jmanley32** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:06 pm

Its incredible! I am watching it just south of here! Seen so many amazing strikes and cloud to cloud.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:07 pm

Its also got quite windy here, warning in manhattan and LI, guess a bit of severe did happen.

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:10 pm

Invisible rain currently falling from the sky

by **jmanley32** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:12 pm

LOL ace, yeah no rain with any of this here. Just a few drops. Looks to be more off to the west.

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:LOL ace, yeah no rain with any of this here. Just a few drops. Looks to be more off to the west.

Also some invisible wind.....oh wait

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:17 pm

Finally dropped the warming on this crappy CNJ cell, just some moderate rain left for areas tonight.

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:18 pm

Sea breeze kills everything everytime

by **jmanley32** Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:53 pm

Wait ace pt. pleasant doesnt have anything even near it, whtacha talking about?

by **algae888** Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:59 pm

another summertime non event. I cant believe they called the yankee game. just drove by on 278 near rfk bridge and its hardly raining ground not fully wet. maybe one of the umpires had some money on the game? cant believe it was called! hardly raining.

by **Dtone** Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:LOL ace, yeah no rain with any of this here. Just a few drops. Looks to be more off to the west.

Walking around Morris Park area of the bx it definitely was a torrential downpour for at least 20 mins followed by light rain.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:17 pm

We had a very heavy downpour at about 8:25 pm lots of lightning and decent winds...I was working the carnival and we had to shut down early...got 2.5 hours in though....still so very uncomfortable out...

by **amugs** Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:25 pm

68* here tonight - gorgeous weather -WOW is all I can say - it feels like late August no more like September - i do not want it to be September for I would have to go to school - boo hoo!!

by **algae888** Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:29 am

mugs after such an extreme winter what a tranquil summer. I love it! it s so calm that the people who like summer weather (ie: t/storms and hurricanes) are hyping every drop of rain and gust of wind. long range looks even calmer. if this keeps up it may be one of the quietest summers in terms of severe weather that we have ever experienced

by **jmanley32** Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:02 am

Algae, first I wanted to comment on the yankees game, of course it was called because of all the cloud to ground lightning. They cannot take that risk, If you did not see the lightning I am not sure how you missed it it was quite a show. remember not all people have been lucky with a quiet severe weather summer. We had damage here from some storms and major flooding from the last storms last week. Some people I know lost their homes in upstate NY (and a little girl and mother lost their lives) and my friend in PA lost power and a bunch of trees. So not EVERYONE, has had a quiet severe storm summer. So maybe in YOUR backyard its been quiet but remember to consider that these storms are very local and as you said a while back so close yet so far. The summer is coming into the time that usually the worst of severe weather can happen so I wouldn't say its necessarily going to be quiet. SPC already has another bout not far from the area for day 3 and 4, looks like a fairly potent storm system coming in 999 mb low on a front looks like. Frank do you think this will affect the area at all?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:04 am

Looks like some rain showers Sunday into Monday. Nothing severe. Then the cool down begins on Tuesday, with low humidity and temps. in the 70's

by **jmanley32** Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:19 am

Sounds nice, if it ain't going to be anything exciting I will take dry and cool weather over boring drizzle or showers.

by **algae888** Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:21 pm

Ill say it .again hyping up and non event for this weekend into early next week. you know weather is always happening and someone is always going to be affected by it. thunderstorms can pop up anytime can cause damage to a few homes and a few people. I'm talking about a major tornado outbreak or a land falling hurricane with thousands of people and hundreds of homes are Affected. that has not happened this year and doesn't look like that's going to happen anytime in the near future but after reading some of the posts on here you would think that was the case. all I'm saying is that we can discuss the weather in a rational and sensible way without hyping it up. 1 to 3 inch snow is much different then 1 to 2 feet.

by **algae888** Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:30 pm

Btw when they called the Yankee game the lightning had ended they called it because of the rain which when I was driving by it wasnt raining all that hard.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:41 pm

Oh didn't know that, then thats kinda silly.

by **amugs** Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:01 pm

NAM for Sunday Night into Mon - it's the NAM I now but interesting.

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 6 F57

Upton calling for a tornado outbreak??

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD/POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A
CONCURRENT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INTO THE REGION...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL. ALTHOUGH A WEAK INVERSION WILL
EXIST AROUND 850 HPA...A BRIEFLY ROTATING STORM AND/OR WEAK
TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
THE NYC BOROUGHS AND LONG ISLAND CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.85 INCH INDICATE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:37 am

Is that sarcasm mugs or are you serious? It mentions the possibility of a possible rotation storm, not a outbreak so unless you tell me otherwise I am assuming you are joking because of the hyping we (or I) should not be doing. And I don't feel I am hyping anything, All i mentioned was that spc had areas highlighted near the area. I do not see how that is hyping. I never said OMG we are going to have tornados get down lol

by **Quietace** Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:01 am

jmanley32 wrote:Is that sarcasm mugs or are you serious? It mentions the possibility of a possible rotation storm, not a outbreak so unless you tell me otherwise I am assuming you are joking because of the hyping we (or I) should not be doing. And I don't feel I am hyping anything, All i mentioned was that spc had areas highlighted near the area. I do not see how that is hyping. I never said OMG we are going to have tornados get down lol

No, serious. Have a strong vort pushing down from Canada across the GL with a trough. Indices look favorable for strong storms. The GFS, Euro, NAM, and RGEM, have a MCS forming somewhere in the Northeast, but in different areas. The Euro Farthest North, the RGEM has many of storms south of the area until hr 48. Yet, if we don't get hit by the complex, we will still have the potential for plenty of storms to fire from day time heating and the still strong indices. Interested to see the 12z models and how they handle the system and where they trend the parameters.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:25 am

Yeah Ace I investigated after posting that wow. Imagine a tornado outbreak in NYC area (what constitutes a outbreak?) The SPC maps changed today to include all of the northeast in 15% and 30% close to the area (and 45% to the far south west wow). I guess it will all depend on the MCS and where it goes like you said. Isn't a MCS basically a Derecho since it may travel very far from what I have read? CAPE values are crazy high for next 24-36 hrs pushing 3000-4000 in some areas at the time frame of the storms, just learning now about the other factors such as shear which I read is supposed to be high along with other factors I have yet to fully understand. Not hyping it but this def looks like it could be quite a event for at least some folks tomorrow. I remember a similar situation in 2012 summer in June the MCS that did so much damage in DC etc. Southern Jersey too I think.

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