2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Ukie and CMC is back with a strengthening storm in the gulf

jmanley32 wrote:LR likes to give us a spook (just for entertainment, since as we have seen models have been less than accurate even within the 5 day), well if GFS is right about 99L, will have to wonder about this one as it has been on and off with the models past few days as a large hurricane north of islands and heading north, no quick recurve.  This looks like if its going to get marked by the NHC it would be around Tuesday as when it is showing on GFS to come off Africa.  Has a decent chance IMO if it comes to fruition, rather than the past few storms.

12z still has it

Yo this ain't no joke for Carolinas and to the north if this happened, dear lord. Not go get going on this anytime soon though, but I see it having a lot more chances to develop. Right now its over Africa, pouch 25, poised to come off around 30th. Then it ramps up pretty quickly according to GFS and CMC. Euro has had it too, at least we have some LR consistency there. Headed due west on this run, surprised it treks mainly due west all the way across atlantic at that latitude. I think that will be Ian, if hermaine nevers happens it will be hermaine. I find this system more plausible being its coming into a more favorable time frame. GFS has had it on and off but now for like 4+ runs, and short term develops a TS by as early as next weekend. I bet NHC marks the area by Monday, just from seeing where it is now.

Haha, 12z CMC near 240 hrs has 99L come off FL head NE then turn around headed to Carolinas, gotta love the model, but when does it ever verify in the tropics. Of course the models have been all over the place so I am not discounting anything, from nothing to a cat 7 lol

12z HWRF

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=99L&pkg=ref&runtime=2016082612&fh=105&xpos=0&ypos=944

Sub 960 low at hour 105 in the gulf

Wow

12z HWRF

949 low

Hour 114

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=99L&pkg=ref&runtime=2016082612&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=699

Just throwing this out there.  There is currently a newly formed center of circulation somehwre withing the circle in the still image.  You can clearly see it on the loop.  But for the first time in a long time there is convection firing up very near or just east to this center.  Wind shear has dropped off drastically.  Im not jumping any guns here but I said it before and Ill say it again...dont fall asleep on 99L just yet.  The last 48hrs of runs "could" be part of the windshield wiper effect.    

sroc4 wrote:Just throwing this out there.  There is currently a newly formed center of circulation somehwre withing the circle in the still image.  You can clearly see it on the loop.  But for the first time in a long time there is convection firing up very near or just east to this center.  Wind shear has dropped off drastically.  Im not jumping any guns here but I said it before and Ill say it again...dont fall asleep on 99L just yet.  The last 48hrs of runs "could" be part of the windshield wiper effect.    

sroc, I think that's the original circulation with convection firing around it, if you follow the path it took it would be right around there. Oh and my post about the CMC, that's not even 99L that's off EC, that's some other rogue LP it decides to develop, crazy uncle lol

Euro has a elongated LP, coming either across or staying to the east of FL I can't really tell. And it has the storm the GFS blows up as a monster and heads for EC. I know its early to start tracking that one but it has a lot of support.

nutleyblizzard wrote:                                
I just got home to check up on the wave myself. Yep Sroc I see what you mean. To my untrained eyes it looks like the convection is just east of the center. I thought early this morning it was done for, but we got a fighter on our hands. It just needs to hang in there a bit longer till it moves into a more favorable area with less shear. Some of the 12z models are hinting at a strong cane. We'll see.

Whatever it does or des not become this has to be the longest invest I have ever tracked that hasn't developed yet

nutleyblizzard wrote:                                

I just got home to check up on the wave myself. Yep Sroc I see what you mean. To my untrained eyes it looks like the convection is just east of the center. I thought early this morning it was done for, but we got a fighter on our hands. It just needs to hang in there a bit longer till it moves into a more favorable area with less shear. Some of the 12z models are hinting at a strong cane. We'll see.

If you look at the map above there is a mere 5-10kt shear over top. A far cry from the 30-40kts it had been experiencing. Problem I think is in the upper levels. There is only marginal divergence aloft. And I still think there is some mid level dry air mixing in.

18z GFS, 12z Euro and ensembles all have what I believe is going to be 90L coming off Africa on or around 30th. It seems to want to take a trek across entire atlantic and up the east coast (just offshore) and on 18z gets down to 979 mb and then on the last frame in fantasyland stalls off cape cod and starts to head west, is that because of the high blocking it in the image below? I also posted 240 hrs, so at least we are not completely in fantasy land, I think THIS one may be one WE need to watch closely, and other forums are talking about it too (of course I only lurk there, you guys are my peeps lol).

I know we are mostly focused on 99L, but this looks much more interesting to me and has nearly full model support 2 weeks out, and 10 days out on the 10 day models. I thought the Euro was supposed to be 384 hrs at some point?

Well lookie at that, where did that come from? I was thinking maybe we should have sub, tropical threads since we have so many waves on models? Like this one for general tropics talk, one for 99L, 91L (Which is the latest yellow area) etc? Just  a thought, that way things don't get too jumbled up, I realize I may have done that by taking about this new wave coming off Africa in several days.

Edit" 91L is ex Fiona!

jmanley32 wrote:18z GFS, 12z Euro and ensembles all have what I believe is going to be 90L coming off Africa on or around 30th.  It seems to want to take a trek across entire atlantic and up the east coast (just offshore) and on 18z gets down to 979 mb and then on the last frame in fantasyland stalls off cape cod and starts to head west, is that because of the high blocking it in the image below?  I also posted 240 hrs, so at least we are not completely in fantasy land, I think THIS one may be one WE need to watch closely, and other forums are talking about it too (of course I only lurk there, you guys are my peeps lol).

GFS H5 actually shows a positive NAO with a ridge pushing into the east. That would call for an OTS track. We won't really have a good idea until this time next week.

jmanley32 wrote:Joesnow, I seen your on storm2k, how is it over there, seems like they can get a bit nasty but I like their insight for the tropics.  A lot of crazy rules. 160 pages though on 99L models wow.

I love weather and storms. The site is OK tough to break in as a nebie. Crazy rules but it does keep it straight forward. I mostly post here because it's friendly and helpful the detailed expiations etc. great bunch of Weather Weenies here.

They do have some great insight but 160 pages of everyone's interpretation of the latest model runs is a bit over done.

Lots of waves to come, 99L not looking too hot possibly because of shear/dry air. It looks like its being sheared apart as it tried to move west. Still russian roulette when it comes to tropics tho, so will monitor until its impossibly dead. Some other waves have a possibility of popping up like the remnants of Fiona could fire up, some activity possible in the gulf as well. After a slow start to the Atl. season, would not be surprised to see it very active thru fall.

What's with this 91L firing up by Bermuda drifting towards Carolina coast next 3 days

skinsfan1177 wrote:What's with this 91L firing up by Bermuda drifting towards Carolina coast next 3 days

Believe it might be remnants of Fiona that just may rekindle under very warm gulf stream temps and less wind shear and dry air in the future which killed Fiona and is putting a hurt on 99L. Thought the CMC was on crack showing 3 tropical storms in close proximity, 99L in the gulf, this one near the coast around the carolinas, and Gaston bombed out in the central-eastern Atlantic.

As per usual Levi Cowan provides an excellent update on the tropics. You will learn something about how tropical weather works by watching. I wish he did videos in winter.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Dont look now but.....Euro!!

Scott also the euro now develops 99 L into a hurricane in hits the panhandle of Florida. I'm assuming that's about a cat 2

algae888 wrote:Scott also the euro now develops 99 L into a hurricane in hits the panhandle of Florida. I'm assuming that's about a cat 2

Yup see above. Ive been saying it for awhile. Cant fall asleep yet

sroc4 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Scott also the euro now develops 99 L into a hurricane in hits the panhandle of Florida. I'm assuming that's about a cat 2

Yup see above.  Ive been saying it for awhile.  Cant fall asleep yet

I agree. Any low pressure in the Gulf or along the Eastern Seaboard has to be watched carefully as models probably won't have a great handle on it until we're under 72 hours

HWRF anyone? Pretty clear 99L still has plenty of potential left.