Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[Frank_Wx]

And as you can see, the EURO is predicting a warming event though I remain cautious as to the extent of the warmth. Verbatim this is a good look for us.

[Frank_Wx]

Seeing the Stratosphere makes me feel good about my call for an early winter (colder than normal December). But I do have concerns about how the rest of the winter could play out.

[Frank_Wx]

Must say, I am interesting in a possible wintry event for our area on or near Thanksgiving. I think the pattern by far favors N&W for this one due to the lack of cold air but those details are not important. We'll see how this looks as we get closer. Timing needs to be ironed out first with the wave of interesting ejecting east while cold is still over us.

[Frank_Wx]

Discussion from Facebook

A lot of concern has been expressed at what's showing in the long range. Ensembles show endless ridging over North America, an active Pacific Jet aiding in +EPO/-PNA conditions, and a robust southeast ridge. La Nina is going to make an impact sooner than later, and that's to be expected since dynamical models had it peaking mid to late November. Although we'll see intrusions of troughs over the northeast this month, even one around Thanksgiving that could bring snow to northern areas, the cold will be moderated since it's not sourced from the Arctic.

Keep in mind what I said about the Stratosphere a couple of days ago. Westerly winds are still projected to reverse easterly around Thanksgiving. That is usually step 2 in advancing toward a SSWE. Step 1 was developing a snowpack over Siberia, of which there is. The EURO shows SSW around Thanksgiving and it's fairly impressive. As long as there is not a lobe that remains over Greenland we have a chance of seeing a decent -AO and possible -NAO pattern developing for the very end of Nov but most likely early December.

So while signals look depressing on the surface of our atmosphere, it's a bit more optimistic a layer above us and hopefully that transcends into good news for an early start to winter. I do have reservations about January / February though. We'll take this a step at a time.

[sroc4]

Discussion from Facebook

A lot of concern has been expressed at what's showing in the long range. Ensembles show endless ridging over North America, an active Pacific Jet aiding in +EPO/-PNA conditions, and a robust southeast ridge. La Nina is going to make an impact sooner than later, and that's to be expected since dynamical models had it peaking mid to late November. Although we'll see intrusions of troughs over the northeast this month, even one around Thanksgiving that could bring snow to northern areas, the cold will be moderated since it's not sourced from the Arctic.

Keep in mind what I said about the Stratosphere a couple of days ago. Westerly winds are still projected to reverse easterly around Thanksgiving. That is usually step 2 in advancing toward a SSWE. Step 1 was developing a snowpack over Siberia, of which there is. The EURO shows SSW around Thanksgiving and it's fairly impressive. As long as there is not a lobe that remains over Greenland we have a chance of seeing a decent -AO and possible -NAO pattern developing for the very end of Nov but most likely early December.

So while signals look depressing on the surface of our atmosphere, it's a bit more optimistic a layer above us and hopefully that transcends into good news for an early start to winter. I do have reservations about January / February though. We'll take this a step at a time.

Highlighted area is a great point.  I still think positioning of the Stat vortex will be a key player with or with out warming or additional wave 1/2 attacks.  Although a warming event is showing up in the Md/LR if the axis of an elongated vortex or if a lobe of a split vortex, should that happen again, do not shift from where it has been, then only transient cool shots and below normal temps will likely occur.  The positioning of the current warming event was such that it allowed all the cold to stay locked on the other side of the N Hemisphere.    Like you said so long as we have the troughing extending into the west coast, -PNA/+EPO,  our cool shots will be mixed with the Pac air source region therefore modified and likely transient.  We will not get that true cross polar flow until we are rid of west coast troughs, not likely anytime soon given the strat positioning forecasts, trop forcing, and the 500mb forecasts.  That said frozen precip chances are not out of the question, but unlikely, with the pattern set up.

[sroc4]

[rb924119]

I was waiting for somebody to comment ahaha I'm thinking we see this unfold as an eastern/northern-eastern New England threat. Probably will do a video either later this evening or tomorrow lol At least we are tracking!!!

[HectorO]

Seeing the Stratosphere makes me feel good about my call for an early winter (colder than normal December). But I do have concerns about how the rest of the winter could play out.

What makes you concerned?

[algae888]

Gefs likes the - nao for an extended period ( more than one week)the last several runs. Looks to go below normal temps starting sunday for for awhile. Ensembles look like weelies from a few weeks ago although a week later. Late nov and early dec could be interesting.

[algae888]

From a met from another board on new euro weeklies. "Weeklies continue with anti-nina. Week 3 and 4 have a decent Hudson Bay ridging with week 4 retrograding GOAK low closer to more of a Aleutian low"

[Frank_Wx]

Seeing the Stratosphere makes me feel good about my call for an early winter (colder than normal December). But I do have concerns about how the rest of the winter could play out.

What makes you concerned?

I just fear the SSWE that is likely to unfold later this month will only benefit us for December, and La Nina fails to die out and takes over as the main driver. Still too early. It's possible we see a second warming event in the Stratosphere later in the winter. Hard to say at this point.

From a met from another board on new euro weeklies. "Weeklies continue with anti-nina. Week 3 and 4 have a decent Hudson Bay ridging with week 4 retrograding GOAK low closer to more of a Aleutian low"

They look good for December.

[frank 638]

legal work on A7 day AccuWeather forecast

[frank 638]

Sorry everyone I got carried away lol I meant Lee Goldberg on the 7 day outlook has rain mixing with snow for Sunday nite for north and west of the city .also the week of thanksgiving we might see daytime highs in the 30s starting to get interesting bring on the winter

[Frank_Wx]

Must say, I am interesting in a possible wintry event for our area on or near Thanksgiving. I think the pattern by far favors N&W for this one due to the lack of cold air but those details are not important. We'll see how this looks as we get closer. Timing needs to be ironed out first with the wave of interesting ejecting east while cold is still over us.

I figured I won't leave you all hanging with this.

This weekend the upper Midwest is in line to get slammed by this seasons first major snowstorm. As the storms cuts off northwest of Chicago, that's going to allow winds to turn from the south and pump a ridge over our area. Temps may approach 70 degrees later this week and weekend.



As the storm jets into northeast Canada, a cold front sweeps across the Great Lakes and eventually our area bringing little rain. Behind this front will be our first blast of colder than normal air. The GFS is projecting high temps in the low to mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s.

1pm Monday temps



1pm Tuesday temps



What remains unknown is how long this blast of colder than normal weather will last. At the get together I mentioned there will be a 3-5 day period near Thanksgiving. Is it possible the cold lasts beyond 5 days? Yes. However, until we see consistency and get closer in time I'm only comfortable saying it will just be a few days, Reason is I'm not confident how strong or "stay-worthy" this -NAO showing on the models will be. My gut tells me it's a transient ridge since the Pacific continues to look unfavorable. So if we're to take advantage of a potential wintry event let's hope it happens between the 22nd and 27th.

[Frank_Wx]

Saw Cohen tweet this. He was mentioning how the cold anonalies over Northern Hemisphere could be a precursor to cold for the winter, but I'm particularly fascinated by the warm anonalies over the Arctic. It's no wonder the Stratosphere is in a state of flux.

[Frank_Wx]

Really like this graphic. The pattern is not changing until we see something more significant happen in our atmosphere. Next week is likely a mere shift.

[amugs]

AAM progged to go Neg after  the next 2 weeks. This will help in calming the PAC JET - again this is a NINO hangover type PAC JET influence - even Joe D agrees with me via a PM through another member on another board





See the black arrow that is hangover warm waters from NINO that are producing a roaring PAC JET atthis time and teh differnces in teh pressures above and below are enhancing this.

Classic +PDO setting up

[Frank_Wx]

The +PDO is looking healthy. Good news indeed.

[amugs]

Earthlights Winter Forecast
Good read and gives hope!

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2016/11/07/winterforecast1617/

[Math23x7]

Question: I am set to be in Philly this Sunday. Do you think if the potential storm materializes it will fall as snow? It will be a day trip as I will be taking Amtrak there in the morning and Amtrak back in the evening.

[amugs]

Oh Boy look out below - end game trop system!

[amugs]

Great Sign on this chart

[Frank_Wx]

EPS Weeklies:

Days 4-11



Days 7-11



Day 11-18



Day 18-25

[Frank_Wx]

The progression on the EPS Weeklies is Madonne worthy.

[Dunnzoo]

Wow, looks like travel during Thanksgiving week is going to be rough....

[algae888]

Wow, looks like travel during Thanksgiving week is going to be rough....

[algae888]

nice! when was the last time we saw this in dec. days upon days of a -nao on gefs and for several runs now. pac looks better too!

there are times when a block sets up it's hard to break. really would be great to get winter off to an early start.

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