January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

I need to look at this system better when I have more time later tonight or tomorrow. Something still seems off to me. I don't exactly understand where the cold air is coming from.

God the SREF's are wet just with the WAA stuff, as is the NAM. Although the NAM is white for the north westerners lol

Frank_Wx wrote:I need to look at this system better when I have more time later tonight or tomorrow. Something still seems off to me. I don't exactly understand where the cold air is coming from.

It's the trough diving down the eastern flank of the Canadian block. It injects some into the system, but also drives an arctic high further south into eastern Canada. Combined with the evolution of the main system, they work constructively to draw cold air southward through the interior.

Frank_Wx wrote:I need to look at this system better when I have more time later tonight or tomorrow. Something still seems off to me. I don't exactly understand where the cold air is coming from.

My thoughts are the same. One of two things could be at play here. It could be that the models are starting to pick up on dynamics even this far out. Or perhaps there could be a "rogue" northern stream interaction. Just my two cents.

Nam looks great at 84 hours for inland areas and past that, should look good for everyone

Frank_Wx wrote:I need to look at this system better when I have more time later tonight or tomorrow. Something still seems off to me. I don't exactly understand where the cold air is coming from.

Frank that looks to be a backdoor cold front coming down through New England the National Weather Service climate site shows a pretty significant negative Nao at this time I don't know how accurate that is but it could have something to do with it

rb924119 wrote:Put it this way, Jman: Does this look like something to sneeze at for an ensemble mean of total accumulated QPF for this period? lol

Umm nope, I was speaking of the operational, but I see much higher possibility now with the EPS. Heres hoping its white not wet. As for the wind, I will just wait and see what we have within 24 hrs, cuz its really speculation at 3-4 days out. No sense in talk bout it other than the possibility being the Euro has been so consistent.

I Syosnow am going to be the voice of reason here!!

Everyone relax. As Bernie says windshield wipers folks....windshield wipers.

That being said, I have been steadfast on major accumulating snows for the Catskills and N and E of there. Now the coast might be in play? I will reiterate; Look at the individual ensembles. The majority are sub 990 and more than 30% sub 980!! I don't get all the minute atmospheric details, but a LP that strong tracking where it is forecast to is usually perfect for here, even the coast. Never mind the added fact we are climatologically in the coldest part of winter.

18z GFS is stronger hr 72 994mb, was 996 12z, also bit further north.

syosnow94 wrote:I Syosnow am going to be the voice of reason here!!  

Everyone relax.  As Bernie says windshield wipers folks....windshield wipers.  

That being said, I have been steadfast on major accumulating snows for the Catskills and N and E of there.  Now the coast might be in play?  I will reiterate;  Look at the individual ensembles.  The majority are sub 990 and more than 30% sub 980!!   I don't get all the minute atmospheric details, but a LP that strong tracking where it is forecast to is usually perfect for here, even the coast.  Never mind the added fact we are climatologically in the coldest part of winter.

This could have been your best post yet!! I will disagree with one point though. We havent seen the windshield wiper yet; rather, it has been a slow steady trend towards a colder soln, which is not necessarily unexpected IMO. How far we can go is still in question. Coast? Odds still not in our favor, but odds have been very slowly increasing.

12k nam has 2 to 4 inches of snow all the way down to the coast with the over-running event at the end of its run

18z GFS BOUTTA DELIVER THE GOODS!! COUPLED JET STREAKS!!!

rb924119 wrote:18z GFS BOUTTA DELIVER THE GOODS!! COUPLED JET STREAKS!!!

really GFS looks like a mess at 72 hrs, 3 LP?

algae888 wrote:12k nam has 2 to 4 inches of snow all the way down to the coast with the over-running event at the end of its run

Wait theres more than one event with this? When is the 1st?

MY GOD BETTER GET THE ARK ahahahaha Jesus, Mary, and Joseph....

Central PA and well upstate NY crushed

Slow ass weatherbell...grrr I paid for it so i refuse to look at TT.

Do we have an idea of the timing of the worst of this event? Or is it still too early? Looks like later Monday on GFS, but Euro is earlier I think. I see her 96 988mb oh boy. I know im behind lol.

CCB banding on this is just redonkulous. I gotta say, D@MN.

rb I am looking at a site that shows 925mb winds and 850s, how is it that 925s are higher than 850s?

jmanley32 wrote:Do we have an idea of the timing of the worst of this event? Or is it still too early? Looks like later Monday on GFS, but Euro is earlier I think.  I see her 96 988mb oh boy.  I know im behind lol.

Late Monday morning through about mid-day Tuesday.....ish lol

Rb you are getting crushed with that ccb band setting up over PA.
The winds are going to be howling holy crap.

850's SICK winds - jesus h Belmar NJ and that area N and S look to get absolutely hammered:


Need to this to blow up to mid 980's IMHO in this set up to make some artificial cold or pinch off the HP to the N and draw it down from Oh Canada.

Exciting times ahead for us sick bastardi weenies

WOW, GFS is nothing like Euro with the precip, ark is right RB! Gonna be a blast in the face with those winds.

jmanley32 wrote:rb I am looking at a site that shows 925mb winds and 850s, how is it that 925s are higher than 850s?

I think the GFS may be having some difficulty in realizing the dynamical cooling with it's current forecast. If you look closely, you can see how large an area is shaded by the "0" coloring, and I think that it's trying to melt that, but with the coupled jets, H5 closed off around the Delmarva, and the crazy F-gen forcing, ESPECIALLY in that mega CCB band it shows just west of the Delaware through central NY and New England, many more areas to the south and east would be snowing than what it shows. Probably down toward 287 and then like Rt. 33 in eastern Pa would likely be snow in my opinion. Because even if the air is 2-4°C at the surface and 925 hPa, as soon as that gets lifted it's cooling at ~ 6°C/km, so that drops your temp below zero above 875 hPa or so, and with the amount of precipitation falling, as it melts it removes heat from the environment, thus cooling everywhere below 875 hPa, rapidly with heavy precipitation.

Actually heaviest precip is all SW, only a inch inch half in the area.

jmanley32 wrote:WOW, GFS is nothing like Euro with the precip, ark is right RB! Gonna be a blast in the face with those winds.

50- 55 KNOTS map shows 60-65 but take that down a peg still madonne

I told folks at work to get ready

925s sustained, wow... 55-65 kts sustained along coast, how much of that mixes down is anyones guess.