Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[rb924119]

Seems many are down playing this

Why would anyone hype this system? I mean it's not like the center is going to pass through Central Long Island. Intensity is still a big question. Most of the area will feel Fringe effects periods of rain Gusty winds but nothing out of the ordinary. Beach erosion and rough surf are probably the two biggest issues with the storm which affects only immediate coastal areas. We've spent a lot of days tracking the system and besides the CMC for a few days no model has showed  a Direct Hit.

You're not wrong. It definitely won't be anything crippling haha mainly like a strong nor'easter.

[Sanchize06]

RGEM

[jmanley32]

Is that west or east of last run.

[Dunnzoo]

Seems many are down playing this

Why would anyone hype this system? I mean it's not like the center is going to pass through Central Long Island. Intensity is still a big question. Most of the area will feel Fringe effects periods of rain Gusty winds but nothing out of the ordinary. Beach erosion and rough surf are probably the two biggest issues with the storm which affects only immediate coastal areas. We've spent a lot of days tracking the system and besides the CMC for a few days no model has showed  a Direct Hit.

Where's the LIKE button? I am down the shore, so I've been tracking in case I have to worry about the winds or rip currents and that seems to be the case. Maybe we can have a gtg here Wednesday since it won't be a good beach day!!

[Sanchize06]

Is that west or east of last run.

Looks to be a little west, hard to tell because hr 48 of the 0z run was still down south

[rb924119]

The SREFSs are literally split 50/50 between the two tracks I outlined around that arrowhead of cooler water lol mamma Mia -_-

[rb924119]

[rb924119]

Trough axis definitely neutral much sooner on 12z through 21 hours compared to 06z. System is also more wound aloft and further northwest. Let's see where this goes.

[track17]

Rb I hear and see what you are saying but this does not look stong at all. Unless what I am seeing is wrong and if I am please explain. I want to learn but it honestly looks like a storm the jersey shore has seen many times with zero issue. Like I said I am probably wrong so please explain so I can learn. Thanks for your time

[Sanchize06]

Heading for VA beach at hr 30. Precip noticeably better to the north on this run

[Sanchize06]

Hr 36

[rb924119]

Rb I hear and see what you are saying but this does not look stong at all. Unless what I am seeing is wrong and if I am please explain. I want to learn but it honestly looks like a storm the jersey shore has seen many times with zero issue. Like I said I am probably wrong so please explain so I can learn. Thanks for your time

Oh it's not gonna be a blockbuster, Track. There's no question about that. In terms of strength I think it's high-end tropical storm maybe low-end cat-1. But even with that it won't be making a direct landfall. So you're right, the coast definitely has seen storms of similar magnitude. As for the intensity, I'm hedging my bets that it will be stronger than what modeling is showing based on what I've seen thus far this season with the constant under-prediction of tropical cyclone intensity in the western Atlantic. I feel that the mechanisms in play are just not being handled well by the models, that's all. Verbatim, you're absolutely right saying that it doesn't look strong given the pressures. However, keep in mind that systems of tropical origin don't need to have nearly as a low a pressure to have higher winds like they do in the winter. Different mechanisms in play. So, no, a 995mb system in winter is almost boring, but with the tropics that's a strong tropical storm.

[rb924119]

And my "excitement" for the system is not coming from it being a large and damaging storm; instead from the fact nobody is even mentioning the possibility of this that has the ability to bring awareness to it on a large scale.

[track17]

Thank you so much for your insight I am hoping it stays weak lol. But that helped a lot

[algae888]

Rb can you explain how this system which strengthens over land for 24 hous Will be a tropical system. That is unheard of. Obviously when it comes off the North Carolina coast over the warm Atlantic Waters it can become a tropical system or subtropical but this system is not a truly tropical system in my opinion. What do you think

[Sanchize06]

NAM definitely NW at hr 42

[skinsfan1177]

Thanks RB for the updates now I'm getting excited. This is going to be sneaky storm no one saying much about it

[rb924119]

NAM definitely NW at hr 42

Yeah it matches me well, and has reduced my anxiety a bit over its previous run ahahaha not gonna lie I'd like to see it trend further north for more assurance lmfaoooo as it is I have no hair left and have aged 40 years ahahaha

[Sanchize06]

NAM definitely NW at hr 42

Yeah it matches me well, and has reduced my anxiety a bit over its previous run ahahaha not gonna lie I'd like to see it trend further north for more assurance lmfaoooo as it is I have no hair left and have aged 40 years ahahaha

Hahaha yeah that's a better run and has more much precip on the NW side then previous

[Sanchize06]

Looks like around 25-35mph sustained winds along the coast on this run

[rb924119]

Rb can you explain how this system which strengthens over land for 24 hous Will be a tropical system. That is unheard of. Obviously when it comes off the North Carolina coast over the warm Atlantic Waters it can become a tropical system or subtropical but this system is not a truly tropical system in my opinion. What do you think

Yeah this is an interesting argument, and a valid argument; I've been going back and forth with this myself. I think it maintains tropical characteristics until gets to our latitude, at which point it begins its true extra-tropical transition. However, if you look at the thermal profiles from the surface, to 850 and 700, there is a distinct circular blob of significantly warmer air that envelopes, follows, and stays with the main circulation until it reaches our latitude, at which point you begin to see the thermal contours open up into a more classic "s" shape. That's why I think it's still tropical, because by definition, a warm-core system is warmer than its environment, which is evident according to the modeling. The strengthening over land is a feature of both the fact that the system is fairly weak and sldisorgsnized to start, so as the circulation begins to tighten by conservation of momentum the wind will increase. As the wind increases, the low-level convergence increases which leads to the strengthening, in addition to the increase of the ambient pressure gradient increasing as the system moves northward. It takes a lot less to strengthen a weak system than it does to strengthen an already developed system.

[rb924119]

Looks like around 25-35mph sustained winds along the coast on this run

Depending on where you are. For the Jersey shore it's closer to 30-40/35-45.

[rb924119]

Thanks RB for the updates now I'm getting excited. This is going to be sneaky storm no one saying much about it

Yup yup!! And join the club

[Sanchize06]

Looks like around 25-35mph sustained winds along the coast on this run

Depending on where you are. For the Jersey shore it's closer to 30-40/35-45.

True. Gusts have to be between 50-60mph there as well. Combined with maybe 2" or so of rain, most interesting weather I've seen around here in months lol

[skinsfan1177]

What's the time frame

[rb924119]

What's the time frame

Tings begin ramping up Tuesday morning, the worst is Tuesday evening through about sunrise Wednesday, and then it'll wind down fairly quickly. The sun should be back out for the second-half of Wednesday with decreasing winds.

[rb924119]

RGEM looks further west than 06z through hour 18

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