Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[rb924119]

What's the time frame

Tings begin ramping up Tuesday morning, the worst is Tuesday evening through about sunrise Wednesday, and then it'll wind down fairly quickly. The sun should be back out for the second-half of Wednesday with decreasing winds.

[rb924119]

RGEM looks further west than 06z through hour 18

[Sanchize06]

RGEM looks further west than 06z through hour 18

Still west through hr 30 as well

[rb924119]

UH OH lol RGEM might be coming in hot this run aha 75 miles or so further west than 06z over eastern NC

[Sanchize06]

Hr 39

[Sanchize06]

Hr 42

[rb924119]

The low did some wonky stuff once it got off the Delmarva, but overall a significant shift west.

[jake732]

i just dont see this really coming west...just a day or 2 late for that..anyone agree?

[rb924119]

Definitely tropical storm conditions along the coast, though

[Sanchize06]

Definitely tropical storm conditions along the coast, though

Around 4" or so of rain around Atlantic City from those bands. Not much more of a shift is needed for those bands to at least get into NYC and points south/east

[Sanchize06]

Soon to be Irma is finally moving. NNE at 9mph as of 11am advisory

[rb924119]

Talk about model hugging, the NHC is out and out paying no attention to anything but the hurricane models. Jesus lol they very well could be right, but wow, not even looking at or including anything else is crazy to me. I guess that's why I am where I am and they are where they are aha

[Sanchize06]

GFS much stronger just through hr 12

[algae888]

How much more seriously should the National Weather Service take this. at worst it's two inches of rain with 30 to 40 mile an hour winds and that along the coast. a dime a dozen happens all the time over here. I've seen training thunderstorms and nor'-east is produced 6 to 10 inches of rain closing down all the highways. this has no shot of doing that

[jmanley32]

rb your over 12 hrs now off on it becomin Irma, shame shame lol jk.  Def model trends to the NW, just watching, not go expect anything, if something interesting it happens if not we move on.

[jmanley32]

GFS wavering each run back and forth from east to west, its a tiny bit west this run lol, at least whatever happens will be done with a a day or so lol

[skinsfan1177]

I know one thing I'm taking this threat pretty seriously living on the Jersey Shore I see what these winds can do and how rough the ocean can get

[jmanley32]

I know one thing I'm taking this threat pretty seriously living on the Jersey Shore I see what these winds can do and how rough the ocean can get

Me too not go take much of a shift west to get windy 10 miles north of battery park.  Trees here do not even do well in 40-50mph winds (very shallow roots) let alone gusts to 60mph or dare I say higher, I def think jersey shore is more at risk obviously, anyshore areas are gonna have beach issues. At least its not on Labor day weekend. NHC has coastal carolinas getting 6-10 rain, if this gets close enough we COULD see some flooding rains.  If winds are stronger than expected and it does go post tropical winds could be further reaching too.  NHC def is riding a diff camp than rb, they show it turning ENE very far south from here.  We will see.

[jmanley32]

GFS 977mb as it passes SE of cape cod not far outside BM, any significant shift west and at this intensity and it could get bad.

[jmanley32]

CMC is pretty further west.

[rb924119]

How much more seriously should the National Weather Service take this. at worst it's two inches of rain with 30 to 40 mile an hour winds and that along the coast. a dime a dozen happens all the time over here. I've seen training thunderstorms and nor'-east is produced 6 to 10 inches of rain closing down all the highways. this has no shot of doing that

I'm not saying they should take it any more or less seriously here. All I'm saying is that they don't seem to be even acknowledging a different outcome. Granted, I'm set in my beliefs too, but I at least demonstrated that I SEE the other solution and acknowledge it, and see how it can happen, but that I believe differently for the reasons I presented. They just don't even seem to be entertaining the thought of it, which I feel is a mistake, that's all. Again, except for when I first saw this potential, I haven't been saying this was going to be a devastating storm, and my track, intensity forecast, and wind forecast show that.

[rb924119]

CMC is pretty further west.

Yeah, 50-75 miles. It's right at that fork in the road; the CMC takes the right (hopefully the WRONG fork lol see what I did there? Aha) instead of the left fork. Should be an interesting EURO and UKMET pair of runs coming up

[jmanley32]

Hmm, shouldnt we at this pt be taking in the SR models moreso than the Lr being we are now within 24-48 hrs.

[rb924119]

Generally, but I still like to look at them and see what they have to say. Can't ever be too informed lol

[Dunnzoo]

I know one thing I'm taking this threat pretty seriously living on the Jersey Shore I see what these winds can do and how rough the ocean can get

Ocean and winds are wild now.....dangerous to no swimming conditions..I'm in seaside park, how is it in PP?

[rb924119]

UKMET ticked east ever so slightly, 12z GFS Ensemble holds serve

[weatherwatchermom]

I know one thing I'm taking this threat pretty seriously living on the Jersey Shore I see what these winds can do and how rough the ocean can get

Ocean and winds are wild now.....dangerous to no swimming conditions..I'm in seaside park, how is it in PP?

Janet it is blowing hard here now too...and I can see the bay is rough

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