Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[Frank_Wx]

What's slightly concerning for the East Coast in regards to Irma is the mid-level trough models show swinging through the Great Lakes September 5th-6th. Unfortunately we're all pretty aware what happens when timing between a trough and an Atlantic Hurricane comes together just right. Further, and I'm not sure what other models besides the GFS show this, there is another tropical entity shown to form in the Gulf of Mexico in that 5th-6th time frame which may try to enhance that mid-level trough as it comes through the East Coast. Probably the main player in the set-up is the High Pressure acting as a block possibly preventing the storm from heading out to sea. It has a decent path to move pretty far west. How far west depends on the aforementioned mid-level trough. I won't comment much at this point since I have not had a chance to review other guidance, but Irma needs to be watched for sure.

thanks frank.this is all a little concerning..is mid week next week the point when when we will have a better idea? .on a happier note .glad to see you are back..hope you enjoyed your summer...nice picture!!

I would say Labor Day we have a decent idea whether she goes out to sea or makes landfall somewhere along the East Coast of the U.S.

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like Irma developed an eye. Probably a hurricane at the 11am NHC advisory.

[sroc4]

Wow Frank..like 6 posts this morning. More than the entire summer. Good to have you back. I hope you enjoyed the motherland

[sroc4]

Check out the eye wall structure already.  Irma is going to be a beautiful system at her peek which will likely be a Cat 5 at some point.  

She is a beauty alright.  It is already a hurricane at 75kt winds.  Mark my words expect it to be a Cat 2 before days end.

[hyde345]

Irma already Cat 2 with 100 MPH winds and 979MB. Wow.

[sroc4]

Irma already Cat 2 with 100 MPH winds and 979MB. Wow.

[Frank_Wx]

Holy hell

[rb924119]

So I've been thinking............

With the few minutes I looked this morning before work, I think I might have an opinion on the eventual track, and it may excite some of you DUH DUH DUH DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[jmanley32]

Yeah wow 100 mph already now progged to be a major in a day or less.

[jmanley32]

Holy hell

hey Frank good to see ya hope it's was good. Got concerned where u were. Holy hell is right. Not go ask if it's go hit us cuz I know u will slap me lol but I see ur scroll is enough to let me know ur concerned.

[jmanley32]

So I've been thinking............

With the few minutes I looked this morning before work, I think I might have an opinion on the eventual track, and it may excite some of you DUH DUH DUH DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

stop thinking and post my man! Something tells me this the real deal. And landfall or not it's go b a amazing storm to see at cat 5!

[SoulSingMG]

Ummmm HWRF depicts a beastly FIVE...

[Frank_Wx]

According to a tweet I saw, only 2 storms have achieved category 5 intensity east of 55W.

Hurricane Hugo



And Hurricane Isabel

[Frank_Wx]

EPS 15-day ensembles

[jmanley32]

12z gfs initialized weaker than current likely cuz Irma is intensify fast. Looks like ri to me. Does that effect or skew overall track?

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS is running now and there are already major changes at the 500mb level. Not surprising.

[jmanley32]

The 12z GFS is running now and there are already major changes at the 500mb level. Not surprising.

in what respect looks to be taking same track looks like it'll be close if not a landfall.

[sroc4]

The 12z GFS is running now and there are already major changes at the 500mb level. Not surprising.

in what respect looks to be taking same track looks like it'll be close if not a landfall.

Much less altlantic Ridging off the SE coast by hr 180 and sharper trough....unless trough splits or lifts out this will likely recurve OTS or at least East of past two runs

[jmanley32]

If I'm look at upper level right this may be kept from go ots on this run by the high? Maybe even push west as it is get close to area.

[jmanley32]

He 234 moving n and slightly west...

[sroc4]

If you want to see what a trough split looks like see 06z GFS between hrs 168 and 204 along the east coast.  Start with 168.  Trough along the east coast.  By hr 186 you have a piece of the trough lifting out over the great lakes and another piece backing up centered over N Mississippi/Tenn valley to meet up with the energy that is in the GOM.  By hr 204 the ridge builds back into the mid Atlantic steering the system further west.  







looks like 12 z trys a trough split but too late. Trough centered over Tenn valley on 6 Z is centered over S NE on 12z. Looks like a near miss For LI/CapCod but only out to 235.

Point being...flip flop cont at H5. Take nothing serious yet.

[jmanley32]

Yikes very close call with a freaking cat 5 is that even a possibility this far north I mean I can't even imagine...

[SoulSingMG]

Man, what a BEAST. (Day 10)

[jmanley32]

Slams cape cod. Flip flop will continue for a week or more. Still paints a yikes senario that even the possibility is there for the first major since 1938.

[jmanley32]

Man, what a BEAST. (Day 10)

and that's after truncation pressure is prolly far lower. If that's even imaginable. This at least is moving up in time and not back. I'm hoping max we track this is a week to 2 at most. Tropics too long lol. Good good and that one behind it follows similar path in lala land. Can only do one at a time lol

[jmanley32]

Cmc very close at 240 but far weaker. Not gonna go by cmc much as it's been not great.

[SoulSingMG]

Man, what a BEAST. (Day 10)

and that's after truncation pressure is prolly far lower. If that's even imaginable. This at least is moving up in time and not back. I'm hoping max we track this is a week to 2 at most. Tropics too long lol. Good good and that one behind it follows similar path in lala land. Can only do one at a time lol

I hear ya, Jman. It's daunting to know only a week from now can we actually start to take her track seriously. But hey, the joys of being crazy about meteorology.

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