Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Jose Hurricane Watches up for the same islands (i.e., Antigua & Barbuda) walloped by Irma. That's unimaginable.

GFS looks East of NAM by maybe 30-40 miles.

SoulSingMG wrote:Jose Hurricane Watches up for the same islands (i.e., Antigua & Barbuda) walloped by Irma. That's unimaginable.

oy thats aweful.

I hate to add even worse news to this scenario, but at this point evacuation may not even be possible for many on the southern half of the peninsula. In fact, as of right now, I say be VERY careful before hastily telling loved ones to evacuate at this point.

It's taking people over 15 hours to get up the interstates, many (if not most) gas stations are empty, and people are running out of gas while sitting in the gridlock on the interstates several hours from where they live. Even the smaller highways running up the middle of the state are jammed to the hilt. Maybe the traffic let's up at some point and maybe the gas stations get refills. But, for now, it's a total nightmare trying to leave.

I lived in Broward for 25 years and most of my family and friends are still in Florida. They are not going nuts about empty shelves at Publix and putting up shutters, they're used to that. Everyone is talking about how impossible it is to get out at this point.

How's that shortwave over the Northern Rockies shaping up?

SENJsnowman wrote:I hate to add even worse news to this scenario, but at this point evacuation may not even be possible for many on the southern half of the peninsula. In fact, as of right now, I say be VERY careful before hastily telling loved ones to evacuate at this point.

It's taking people over 15 hours to get up the interstates, many (if not most) gas stations are empty, and people are running out of gas while sitting in the gridlock on the interstates several hours from where they live. Maybe the traffic let's up at some point and maybe the gas stations get refills. But, for now, it's a total nightmare trying to leave.

I lived in Broward for 25 years and most of my family and friends are still in Florida. They are not going nuts about empty shelves at Publix and putting up shutters, they're used to that. Everyone is talking about how impossible it is to get out at this point.

SENJ,what you say makes a lot of sense. My son is in Deerfield Beach in a mandatory evac zone. My elderly parents and a sister live in Boca Raton.My aunt who is 96 is in Miami Beach but is going to my parents in Boca(West) to ride out the hurricane. I feel so helpless trying to give my son advice on where to go. His plan right now is to stay at his cousins who also is in Boca. I just pray that they all get through this impending disaster along with many on this board who also have friends and family down there. The anticipation of what's to come for them is disheartening to say the least. All we can do is hope for the best, but I expect the worst at this stage.

Just my 2 cents for everyone worried about the evacuations in SE Florida.  Tell whoever you can to head west.  Drive across to Naples then up to the Tampa area or even N of there if possible.  Yes there will be a lot of traffic and they will get wind and rain but there's a ton of hotels and resorts and if they leave by tomorrow morning they will be fine.  My good buddy has parents S of Miami.  I told him this yesterday.  They found a hotel in St. Pete for $125 a night.  They booked 3 nights.  Pretty simple.  The further N and w you go from Tampa the better.

Not trying to come across as a jerk but It's not rocket science. We've known this area is in the crosshairs for at least 3 full days now. Shouldn't be a last minute panic just some old fashioned common sense. If it was me and I had elderly relatives down there I cared about I would have been down there already and driven them myself.

I really don't think it's quite that simple, especially for the elderly folks.I don't know if you are watching the news, but 95 north is basically at a standstill, and that's with 3 days yet to go before it hits.

TheAresian wrote:Frank, what about Columbia, SC?

Columbia: Evacuations suggested but not necessary. 100+ mph winds and torrential rainfall may make me want to evacuate but Columbia is well inland so no surge to deal with. Very high / dangerous impact.

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:Frank, what is the possibility of the storm wobbling to the west?

There is still model disagreement. 12z GFS shows a track JUST off the coast of FL but it did shift 20 miles or so west. So maybe the GFS is trending toward the NAM/EURO?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank:

Thanks as always for your help. I have close family in the following places in the order that they will be affected:

Key Largo Fla - northernmost Keys
Miami Fla
Greenville SC
Atlanta - NE suburbs
Myrtle Beach SC

Sorry for the long list but I come from a big family and they all keep migrating southeast.

Miami: Evacuate. Even if the GFS were right, the eyewall will be way too close for comfort. Anyone in Miami needs to get the hell out. Catastrophic impact.

Greenville: Not terribly concerned here but they will be on the North-Northeast side of the eye, which could track near them. Hurricane force winds and very heavy rain. Irma will prob be a Cat 1/2 by the time it gets here. High impact.

Atlanta: Will be on west side of the storm. High winds and heavy rain. Moderate impact.

Myrtle Beach: Evacuate. Surge will be biblical, winds will be hurricane force. Catastrophic impact.

Nyi1058 wrote:Hey frank ! I have a cousin ( who I'm close with like a sis ) her hubby ,8 year old son and a turtle
Named Gary . They are in Boco Roton. Claim they are riding it out instead of heading north to the villages near Orlando

Boca Raton: Evacuate. Even if the GFS were right, the eyewall will be way too close for comfort. Anyone in Miami needs to get the hell out. Catastrophic impact.

HectorO wrote:I have family in Jacksonville. Hoping for the best! My Grandmother's name is Irma!

Jacksonville: goes back to track. EURO/NAM track I would evacuate here. GFS track you are still too close for comfort with the eyewall. I suggest evacuate. Very high / dangerous impact with potential for catastrophic depending on track

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:I have family in Ponte Vedra (near Jacksonville along the east coast) and co-workers in Jupiter. I am thinking Jupiter needs to evacuate but not sure on Ponte Vedra.

Ponte Vedra and Jupiter: Evacuate. Even if the GFS were right, the eyewall will be way too close for comfort. Anyone in Miami needs to get the hell out. Catastrophic impact.

GreyBeard wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:I hate to add even worse news to this scenario, but at this point evacuation may not even be possible for many on the southern half of the peninsula. In fact, as of right now, I say be VERY careful before hastily telling loved ones to evacuate at this point.

It's taking people over 15 hours to get up the interstates, many (if not most) gas stations are empty, and people are running out of gas while sitting in the gridlock on the interstates several hours from where they live. Maybe the traffic let's up at some point and maybe the gas stations get refills. But, for now, it's a total nightmare trying to leave.

I lived in Broward for 25 years and most of my family and friends are still in Florida. They are not going nuts about empty shelves at Publix and putting up shutters, they're used to that. Everyone is talking about how impossible it is to get out at this point.

SENJ,what you say makes a lot of sense. My son is in Deerfield Beach in a mandatory evac zone. My elderly parents and a sister live in Boca Raton.My aunt who is 96 is in Miami Beach but is going to my parents in Boca(West) to ride out the hurricane. I feel so helpless trying to give my son advice on where to go. His plan right now is to stay at his cousins who also is in Boca. I just pray  that they all get through this impending disaster along with many on this board who also have friends and family down there. The anticipation of what's to come for them is disheartening to say the least. All we can do is hope for the best, but I expect the worst at this stage.

I feel awful. But Boca is not safe. They all need to leave.

syosnow94 wrote:Just my 2 cents for everyone worried about the evacuations in SE Florida.  Tell whoever you can to head west.  Drive across to Naples then up to the Tampa area or even N of there if possible.  Yes there will be a lot of traffic and they will get wind and rain but there's a ton of hotels and resorts and if they leave by tomorrow morning they will be fine.  My good buddy has parents S of Miami.  I told him this yesterday.  They found a hotel in St. Pete for $125 a night.  They booked 3 nights.  Pretty simple.  The further N and w you go from Tampa the better.

Not trying to come across as a jerk but It's not rocket science.  We've known this area is in the crosshairs for at least 3 full days now.  Shouldn't be a last minute panic just some old fashioned common sense.  If it was me and I had elderly relatives down there I cared about I would have been down there already and driven them myself.  

Exactly. Heck, even if you have to drive west and live in your damn vehicle (if there are not hotels available). Find some food/water and make it work for 1 night or so.

I am here to help people. I can be online Sunday (day Irma is expected to move into FL) and provide updates if need be.

Frank your my hero as long as Disney is smart and closes I think we may head west for a little mini vacation

For those asking about Boca Raton..here is a look at the GFS. I am pretty sure Boca is inside the eye. My geography of FL is not great, but you get the point. Those are 150+ mph winds.

Hey Frank what do you think about impacts for St. Simons Island, Georgia? Thanks!

The JMA and NAVGEM models fall in line with NAM/EURO. Worst case scenario. A track inside of Florida, putting all of eastern FL at risk of catastrophic damage.

leimatt95 wrote:Hey Frank what do you think about impacts for St. Simons Island, Georgia? Thanks!

St. Simons: Evacuate. Catastrophic impact.

syosnow94 wrote:Just my 2 cents for everyone worried about the evacuations in SE Florida.  Tell whoever you can to head west.  Drive across to Naples then up to the Tampa area or even N of there if possible.  Yes there will be a lot of traffic and they will get wind and rain but there's a ton of hotels and resorts and if they leave by tomorrow morning they will be fine.  My good buddy has parents S of Miami.  I told him this yesterday.  They found a hotel in St. Pete for $125 a night.  They booked 3 nights.  Pretty simple.  The further N and w you go from Tampa the better.

Not trying to come across as a jerk but It's not rocket science.  We've known this area is in the crosshairs for at least 3 full days now.  Shouldn't be a last minute panic just some old fashioned common sense.  If it was me and I had elderly relatives down there I cared about I would have been down there already and driven them myself.  

I'm glad things worked out for your friend's family. I stand by what I said 100%. I have read about 25-30 stories from the past two days about the nightmares people are living by trying to evacuate SE Florida. There's only 2 directions to go from So Fla, north and west. And the only ways to go west are I 75 and US 41. I just don't buy the fact that it's smooth sailing going west, but yet everyone is still heading north. And, I say that with all due respect Syosnow.

This is typical of what my friends are experiencing in the Tampa area today:

"I have some co-workers that left early this morning from the Sarasota area. It wasn't too bad in the early morning hours but now 75 is extremely heavy. Only made it to the Ocala area so far after a few hours of driving. They did say to use the Waze app to help navigate around it using some of the back roads" 4 hrs ago

"We left at 3:30am drove an average of 75 mph got gas with no line along the way and are in a Marriott Courtyard in Bradenton with 50 vacancies and they allow dogs with a $75 per stay fee" 4 hrs ago "Nevermind, just went downstairs to extend my stay and after telling me 50 available rooms they said they're booked Saturday-Monday" 4 hrs ago

"Don't go 75 north!! My dad is there and is tragic hell. No gas, extremely slow going and abandoned cars by the hundreds if not thousands on the sides of the road from running out of gas. Can't even get into rest areas. Left out of punta gorda area yesterday late afternoon and as of 6 this morning was just north of Gainesville. Only getting worse" 5 hrs ago

Probably the biggest news of the day. The 12z GEFS, the GFS Ensembles, match the NAM/EURO/JMA/NAVGEM in showing a track inside of Florida. The Ensembles disagree with their own OP. GFS is in its own camp.

Frank_Wx wrote:For those asking about Boca Raton..here is a look at the GFS. I am pretty sure Boca is inside the eye. My geography of FL is not great, but you get the point. Those are 150+ mph winds.

So would you advise them to go west instead of north then?

GreyBeard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:For those asking about Boca Raton..here is a look at the GFS. I am pretty sure Boca is inside the eye. My geography of FL is not great, but you get the point. Those are 150+ mph winds.

So would you advise them to go west instead of north then?

Yes. It will require the least amount of gas and time. They will be in a MUCH safer zone.

Thank you,Frank.

Frank_Wx wrote:For those asking about Boca Raton..here is a look at the GFS. I am pretty sure Boca is inside the eye. My geography of FL is not great, but you get the point. Those are 150+ mph winds.

This is about the extent of the populated areas of So Fla, about 5 million people live inside of that circle.

Thanks, Frank. I relayed the information to my daughter who has decided that she's going to ride it out.

SENJsnowman wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Just my 2 cents for everyone worried about the evacuations in SE Florida.  Tell whoever you can to head west.  Drive across to Naples then up to the Tampa area or even N of there if possible.  Yes there will be a lot of traffic and they will get wind and rain but there's a ton of hotels and resorts and if they leave by tomorrow morning they will be fine.  My good buddy has parents S of Miami.  I told him this yesterday.  They found a hotel in St. Pete for $125 a night.  They booked 3 nights.  Pretty simple.  The further N and w you go from Tampa the better.

Not trying to come across as a jerk but It's not rocket science.  We've known this area is in the crosshairs for at least 3 full days now.  Shouldn't be a last minute panic just some old fashioned common sense.  If it was me and I had elderly relatives down there I cared about I would have been down there already and driven them myself.  

I'm glad things worked out for your friend's family. I stand by what I said 100%. I have read about 25-30 stories from the past two days about the nightmares people are living by trying to evacuate SE Florida. There's only 2 directions to go from So Fla, north and west. And the only ways to go west are I 75 and US 41. I just don't buy the fact that it's smooth sailing going west, but yet everyone is still heading north. And, I say that with all due respect Syosnow.

This is typical of what my friends are experiencing in the Tampa area today:

"I have some co-workers that left early this morning from the Sarasota area. It wasn't too bad in the early morning hours but now 75 is extremely heavy. Only made it to the Ocala area so far after a few hours of driving. They did say to use the Waze app to help navigate around it using some of the back roads" 4 hrs ago

"We left at 3:30am drove an average of 75 mph got gas with no line along the way and are in a Marriott Courtyard in Bradenton with 50 vacancies and they allow dogs with a $75 per stay fee"  4 hrs ago  "Nevermind, just went downstairs to extend my stay and after telling me 50 available rooms they said they're booked Saturday-Monday" 4 hrs ago

"Don't go 75 north!! My dad is there and is tragic hell. No gas, extremely slow going and abandoned cars by the hundreds if not thousands on the sides of the road from running out of gas. Can't even get into rest areas. Left out of punta gorda area yesterday late afternoon and as of 6 this morning was just north of Gainesville. Only getting worse" 5 hrs ago

No one should have waited this long especially if people had access to this site I would argue once you get to 75 you're safe. Safe as in your life which is all that matters. Good luck to all.

Frank my parents live in Port St. Lucie what do you recommend they do ?

2pm update - Irma 922mb/175 mph winds. WOW

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 70.4 West. Irma is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the eye
of Irma should continue to move between Hispaniola and the Turks and
Caicos this afternoon. The hurricane will then move across the
southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the central
Bahamas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with
higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). An unofficial observing site on Grand Turk recently
reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph
(106 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 922
mb (27.23 inches).

Artechmetals wrote:Frank my parents live in Port St. Lucie what do you recommend they do ?

Evacuate. Go west toward Tampa.