Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

jmanley32 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

mikeypie24 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Its def shifted back east a bit more offshore. Doubt it heads up to us but we will see.

Nice first post 2 posts up.  You're obviously uneducated when it comes to weather. A cat5 would never happen up here. It would weaken significantly by the time it got here.  Would it cause damage regardless SURE. But as weather junkies we live for this kind of stuff.  In the meantime I would argue that Frank and others on here have done more to help people in Irma's path protect life and property than your little rant ever did. Go back to trolling unless you're going to be usefull please.

syo not sure what in the world you are refer to u know I'm not post for first time I'm not sure what you are talking about but u def got me angry with this post. I think everyone here especially frank who is giving iyby advice is amazing. Keep up the good work guys if I'm causing problems I'll just stay wuiet but I honestly do not remember ranting about anything.

He was not replying to you. I deleted the post he replied to.

Was that the post about all of us being sick, evil people for being fascinated by the possible of a cat 5 headed up this way?

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:TWC has the storm hitting Orlando as a category 2, I don't know what kind of damage that's gonna do

It will be a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane and some models have the eye now passing over Orlando. We'll have a better idea this afternoon if the wobble in track being more westerly has merit, or if models shift a bit more east today.

No more discussion about prev posts in this thread. It will be deleted. Keep this thread devoted to model discussion and impact potential. Take all else to banter. If there is any mean spirited bickering in the banter thread it too will be deleted. Thank You

TheAresian wrote:Was that the post about all of us being sick, evil people for being fascinated by the possible of a cat 5 headed up this way?

Yes

I have never seen a storm cover an entire state like Irma is going to do. This will be a very dangerous storm and I hope everyone already evacuated or will do so. It would be very stupid to ride this storm out.

The hurricane expert on The Weather Channel thinks that the center will be near the west coast of Florida just like what the Euro shows.

syosnow94 wrote:

TheAresian wrote:Was that the post about all of us being sick, evil people for being fascinated by the possible of a cat 5 headed up this way?

Yes

From here on out these posts will be deleted. Jim I copy and pasted your last post to banter. Thank you

Frank_Wx wrote:

Looks like it's heading toward a tiny Island off the coast of Cuba, anyone what Island that is?

Never mind, It's Ragged Island, Little Ragged Island, Racoon Cay, Pimlico Cay, Maycock Cay and Double Breadsted Cay.

Going to get slammed.

Do people live there?

Almost looks like it is moving west southwest on those last few frames

Wow looks like that's straight out of a disaster movie scaey she's huge.

The real scary part with this storm is that it's going to slow down considerably. Parts of South Florida could have hurricane-force winds for 24 hours or longer. Incredible

12z NAM

What may help Florida is that part of the eye wall looks to be heading over parts of Cuba now which could weaken the storm somewhat. Not good for Cuba but if she weakened to a cat 3 would be much less destructive

algae888 wrote:What may help Florida is that part of the eye wall looks to be heading over parts of Cuba now which could weaken the storm somewhat. Not good for Cuba but if she weakened to a cat 3 would be much less destructive

Al I differ - she is over open waters with her bands over Cuba - She seems to be wobbling up and down - she doesn't make contact with her eye wall over Cuba S FLA sees a CAT 5 then cause she will love the 87* water temps she is projected to wobble over.

She likely weakening a little more as we speak. Recon is showing less intense winds around the core, and the eyewall structure has taken on a more oval appearance at time. We will see what the next pass through the NE quadrant holds as far as wind speeds however. This could be due to still finishing an eyewall replacement cycle. One thing to note is that hurricane force winds are becoming more expansive, also indicative of eyewall replacement, and eventual restrengthening. Def things to keep an "eye" on.

Regarding additional intensification there is some indication that there may be shear on the order of 20-30kts and dry air to Irmas NW as she approaches the area I have circled.  Yes she will be over extremely warm waters, but the shear and/or dry air may be just enough to hold her steady or even weaken slightly.  If the eyewall does not come on shore over Cuba at all then she probably will not get any weaker than what we see today.  There still is a chance that we get rapid intensification right before landfall if the shear and or dry air is less than expected which would be worst case scenario.  

Irma looks like she's developed a wobble. I'm still amazed that she is going to make a sharp right turn toward fl. Please explain what is going to cause this if anyone could.To my untrained eye it looks like she is going to shoot the gap between fla. and Cuba possibly clipping the northern coast of Cuba,that is if she maintains her current course.

With the new track likely straight up the Florida peninsula the impacts to Georgia South Carolina and North Carolina should be greatly reduced still a dangerous storm there but probably not catastrophic

Mug's most models now have her at least partially Overland on Cuba which should weaken her somewhat I agree that she could strengthen before landfall in Florida but any kind of weakening will greatly help the people of Florida

algae888 wrote:With the new track likely straight up the Florida peninsula the impacts to Georgia South Carolina and North Carolina should be greatly reduced still a dangerous storm there but probably not catastrophic

True Al but isn't this now placing the Florida panhandle in harms way, especially the eastern portion?

Jose currently stronger winds than Irma.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

algae888 wrote:With the new track likely straight up the Florida peninsula the impacts to Georgia South Carolina and North Carolina should be greatly reduced still a dangerous storm there but probably not catastrophic

True Al but isn't this now placing the Florida panhandle in harms way, especially the eastern portion?

Yes but nothing like what they that going to experience in South Florida I believe they'll be able to handle what's going to happen in the panhandle of Florida no need for evacuation there except maybe a long low-lying areas right along the coast with this storm surge