Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

EPS in agreement with OP

Frank,

My Aunt and Cousins live in Coral Gables. Their planning on staying. What's your thought?

I have relatives that live in Central Florida, not by the ocean and high enough not to get storm surge but still under the gun from Irma. I asked one of them how things were. Her response:

No water food or gas to buy...hunkering down and business is very slow

For what little it may be worth, I do not agree at all that this system is going to go strait up the Florida peninsula. It's either going to ride the east coast or the west coast because of the gradient in friction, imho

Yeah us floridans need to make preparations and leave like NOW

GFS same, heads north right up center of FL, WCS unfolding.

Florida is beyond screwed.

Seen som one say on Facebook that the west shift may be due to pressure lower than model at initialization, and that stronger storms move more north than west...

Latest nhc disco....

Hurricane Irma continues to have an impressive satellite presentation with a very distinct eye. There is not much more to add about the current intensity except that numerous data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds remain at 150 kt. The environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the hurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some fluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which are difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma should not remain a powerful major hurricane for the next 3 days while it is heading for Florida or its adjacent surroundings. Thereafter, an increase in the wind shear and the interaction with land should lead to gradual weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt. Irma is being steered by the flow around the south side of the subtropical ridge, but in 2 or 3 days the hurricane is expected to be located on the southwestern edge of the aforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north- northwest should then begin. The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma. This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward.

Ummm no way, JOSE. 18z GFS has it hitting New England?! Lol

SoulSingMG wrote:Ummm no way, JOSE. 18z GFS has it hitting New England?! Lol

It pulls a retrograde after hitting bermuda, what caused that verbatim? Not buying that, I just watched 2 weeks or so of Irma and nothing is prolly go happen, up here.  Not to say its not interesting to track for our friends in FL, lets hope somehow this turns out to be a bit better thn shown currently.  I will wait till within 5 days to believe if a storm may come up here.

I wondor if this was ever fixed? Even so, i think this can be tragic if the NHC track comes true.

LEVEE FAILURE POTENTIAL

3 Troubling Lake Okeechobee Levee Facts 1
This entry was posted in Hurricane Analysis and tagged Hurricanes Lake Okeechobee levee protection south florida on February 26, 2013 by Michael Watkins.

Lake Okeechobee levee near Clewiston, FL

Lake Okeechobee levee near Clewiston, FL
Tonight, the Army Corps of Engineers held a public meeting in Clewiston, FL to discuss current “upgrades” to the 143 mile Herbert Hoover Dike, which protects much of south Florida should Lake Okeechobee flood or be pushed out of its banks during a hurricane.

The dike system cannot be counted on to protect against flooding during a significant weather event such as a direct hit from a hurricane or torrential rain event. Although there was little new information tonight, three significant facts remain.

1. The levee is expected to fail. I know that sounds bad, and it is. FEMA is apparently planning to update flood assessments this summer and redraw flood maps for Palm Beach and Martin counties. These flood maps are expected to be drawn as if the levee around Lake Okeechobee didn’t exist. In other words, they are not counting on the levees to protect against flooding.

2. The Herbert Hoover Dike is in the highest failure category of the Army Corps risk scale. Current efforts are being directed at reducing the risk category, but as it stands (and even after millions of dollars worth of improvements) the levee protecting the area still carries the highest risk classification (DSAC 1) of any dam in the United States.

3. There is no emergency spillway, nor is one planned to be built. There is no good, controlled way to drain off excess water from the lake should a large amount of rain fall in a short amount of time. Lake Okeechobee fills six times faster than it can be drained, and a foot of rainfall would result in 3 to 4 feet of water rise in the lake. Current levees will start to fail when the lake rises above 18.5 feet above mean sea level (it’s at roughly 14 feet currently), and significant levee problems are almost certain to occur when the lake reaches 20 feet over MSL.

Efforts to return the levee system to the original level of protection are expected to be completed…in 2017. However, the original design was done in the early 1930’s to 1950’s, hardly state of the art and surely not rated to withstand another hurricane season like 1926, 1928, 1945 or 1947.

I know I am not breaking any news here, but the Herbert Hoover Dike will fail, and significant parts of south Florida will be inundated with Lake Okeechobee flood waters. The question isn’t if, it’s when.

Thank you Frank for the information!!

I'm not sure this monster is even going to weaken to a strong Cat 4 prior to landfall especially if the core avoids Cuba. The water from Cuba to Florida is 90*, shear is minimal, and all models have the pressure lowering significantly as it turns northward and approaches Miami. I could easily see this maintain Cat 5 status as it makes landfall.

rumor i'm hearing is that jose("the daca storm")will hit the leewards then do a loop around the high and head north to mid atl,ny or ne

everybody...look at the wave that's about to come off the africian coast.....HUGE

Okay Lake Okeechobee sitch as Bob posted is real - the levee dikes system will collapse under these extreme conditions. I spoke with the highest civilian in the Army Corps of Engineering, they are in crisis mode and believe teh inundation of water to S FLa nd the EASt Coast will be something that may reshape these lands - no kidding. Thaty have major concern for the SC bend since water will funnel into this region making for a "record,monstrous tidal surge" that would inundate Charleston and miles inland.

Umm and oh yeah he was teh chief engineer for teh rebuilding of the ld storm surge gates
for New Awlens!

I did a calculation with a structural engineer at my back to school night and we calculated that a high rise building with 175mph winds with a  100' base and 500' tall would have a 3,900,000 lbs force exerted on it horizontally. You can imagine teh catastrophic day after scenes of South Fla coastline Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Etc.

She wil pass over 85-90* bath water and just suck up this fuel and she is feeling the friction of teh land at this strength so she is basically avoiding land if yuo watch her wobble around PR and now Kooba.

Jose is going to be a major when it hits the leewards. Soon we will have Lee as well with teh wave off of Afrika.

This will be one of the worst storms to ever hit the US, Florida looks like it will be devastated for months.

Frank, talking to a friend, is it possible Miami doesn't exist after this storm

Through hr 35 of the NAM 12k it doesn't look like Irma's gonna score a direct hit on Cuba. Could be she gets all the way to Fla. unimpaired.

emokid51783 wrote:Frank, talking to a friend, is it possible Miami doesn't exist after this storm

Miami will always exist, its a area, not like it will really be wiped off the map but extreme damage is very possible.

Look at the NAM. It has Irma turning north and pretty much missing SE Florida completely.

Oh wow, the trough is much stronger, weaker ridge, looks like the trough is trying to bring her up the coast here

Uh oh