Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:Im not buying the west wobble at this time. I wish I had time to explain. In short I believe the models are underestimating just how far south the trough actually is. If you look closely at the initializations of the various models, esp in the GOM, the steering flow does not match up with the obsevered Sat imagery. The entire NW 1/2 of the GOM has a ENE asterly flow where as the models, look at euro, thinks its actually moving WSW for this time frame. In addition the steering flow on models at initiation on and N of Cuba right now do not match with observation. This is likely occurring due to the inability to intialize the pressure at the actual pressure. This small but important feature "MAY" be the reson the actual track ends up 50-70 miles east of what the west wobble indicates.

Not ready to buy into the NAM just yet. We will see what we look like on sat in the am.

by Guest Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:45 pm

Is there any way this thing actually gets sub 900mb?

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:48 pm

Its def shifted back east a bit more offshore. Doubt it heads up to us but we will see.

by Guest Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:53 pm

That's incredible. She rides the entire eastern coast of Florida and is still down as a cat 5. It's either model error or that storm is the devil.

by **Sanchize06** Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:54 pm

Yeah, the trough moves out. Was a little closer though than the last couple of runs. I think if Irma between now and Florida takes more of an easterly track and turns north a little quicker, would be in position for the trough to at least pull on it and attempt a capture up the coast

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:04 am

cmc is east a bit.

by **Snow88** Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:05 am

Mehh the Nam got me excited for a second. I thought the models were all going to trend towards the Nam.

I will still track this in the morning

CMC is like the GFS

Night

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:08 am

So you all agree, NAM was just a goof? Not possible it might be onto something with that trough?

by **Snow88** Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:17 am

jmanley32 wrote:So you all agree, NAM was just a goof? Not possible it might be onto something with that trough?

It's possible but none of the models look like the Nam

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:19 am

jmanley32 wrote:So you all agree, NAM was just a goof? Not possible it might be onto something with that trough?

Cranky WX is angry about the NAM, that's how much he's tossing it. FWIW.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:32 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So you all agree, NAM was just a goof? Not possible it might be onto something with that trough?

Cranky WX is angry about the NAM, that's how much he's tossing it. FWIW.

Does that mean he is tossing it or is not, not familiar with cranky wx.

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:37 am

I def wouldn't buy into the NAM right now. Anything is possible with this beast. We may have to start relying on observation and less of models. Remember in tight global models may not be able to pick up on subtle changes in the atmosphere. Bottom line is with a storm this incredibly dangerous all options remain on the table until she is a distant memory. Everyone from Florida to the Carolinas need to have there plans in place.

by **algae888** Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:28 am

lol at all who got excited over the NAM!!
Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 13 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_4

euro

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 13 Ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_watl_4

eps

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 13 Nam_z500a_watl_17

500mb nam

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 13 Ecmwf_z500a_watl_3

500mb euro
which one would I trust?

by **dkodgis** Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:28 am

Yes remember the NAM did well predicting snow last winter. This is all getting uglier by the moment

by **algae888** Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:51 am

The 6z GFS has corrected West as should have been expected to fall in line with the other more reliable models. Devastating for Florida.

by **algae888** Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:53 am

dkodgis wrote:Yes remember the NAM did well predicting snow last winter. This is all getting uglier by the moment

The nam does have its moments but like hurricanes hitting our area very rare indeed

by **algae888** Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:01 am

Another thing to note about the GFS it had Irma getting Sub 900 m b that is very unlikely to happen. All the hoopla over this is mind-boggling with even some saying the hi-res GFS showed 854 MB I mean come on guys did you really think this was going to happen

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:03 am

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:So wait I'm confused is Florida getting clobbered or not

I can't stop thinking of you....hope you are headed back to nj.....keep us posted

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:02 am

Irma looks powerful as always this morning. There is dry air wrapping around her center, but she is about to enter a very warm pool of water. We'll see if she can fight this dry air off today.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 13 Avn-animated

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 13 Avn-animated

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 13 Hwrf_mslp_uv850_11L_20

Seems like all models last night fell in line with the EURO of a track west of the east coast of FL, which is worst case scenario track for many.

by Guest Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:50 am

mikeypie24 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Its def shifted back east a bit more offshore. Doubt it heads up to us but we will see.

Nice first post 2 posts up. You're obviously uneducated when it comes to weather. A cat5 would never happen up here. It would weaken significantly by the time it got here. Would it cause damage regardless SURE. But as weather junkies we live for this kind of stuff. In the meantime I would argue that Frank and others on here have done more to help people in Irma's path protect life and property than your little rant ever did. Go back to trolling unless you're going to be usefull please. Wink

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:52 am

by Disneyprincess1592 Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:06 am

Weathermom, you are so sweet for being concerned we're probably leaving tonight to head up there! Thank you so much everybody for all the information

by Disneyprincess1592 Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:08 am

TWC has the storm hitting Orlando as a category 2, I don't know what kind of damage that's gonna do

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:24 am

syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypie24 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Its def shifted back east a bit more offshore. Doubt it heads up to us but we will see.

Nice first post 2 posts up. You're obviously uneducated when it comes to weather. A cat5 would never happen up here. It would weaken significantly by the time it got here. Would it cause damage regardless SURE. But as weather junkies we live for this kind of stuff. In the meantime I would argue that Frank and others on here have done more to help people in Irma's path protect life and property than your little rant ever did. Go back to trolling unless you're going to be usefull please.

syo not sure what in the world you are refer to u know I'm not post for first time I'm not sure what you are talking about but u def got me angry with this post. I think everyone here especially frank who is giving iyby advice is amazing. Keep up the good work guys if I'm causing problems I'll just stay wuiet but I honestly do not remember ranting about anything.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:25 am

On my last note I hope everyone stays safe and Irma looks to be looking stronger and bigger this morning.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypie24 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Its def shifted back east a bit more offshore. Doubt it heads up to us but we will see.

Nice first post 2 posts up. You're obviously uneducated when it comes to weather. A cat5 would never happen up here. It would weaken significantly by the time it got here. Would it cause damage regardless SURE. But as weather junkies we live for this kind of stuff. In the meantime I would argue that Frank and others on here have done more to help people in Irma's path protect life and property than your little rant ever did. Go back to trolling unless you're going to be usefull please.
syo not sure what in the world you are refer to u know I'm not post for first time I'm not sure what you are talking about but u def got me angry with this post. I think everyone here especially frank who is giving iyby advice is amazing. Keep up the good work guys if I'm causing problems I'll just stay wuiet but I honestly do not remember ranting about anything.

He was not replying to you. I deleted the post he replied to.

by Guest Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:32 am

Was that the post about all of us being sick, evil people for being fascinated by the possible of a cat 5 headed up this way?

by Sponsored content