January 16th-17th Snow Event

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by dkodgis on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:43 am

A kiss of snow this morning, just coating everything. Now what comes will be interesting.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:47 am

Pavement with a quick coating but can see blue sky through a very thin cloud layer so maybe just a quick burst for now.

No virga with this one.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:54 am

Getting an early snow shower right now, 26 degrees some very dark skies around.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:07 am

21° light snow, intensity decreasing. A quick 0.3 inches brings the seasonal over 20 inches.

The next 24 hours should be interesting NWS sticking with 3-5 up here for now.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:21° light snow, intensity decreasing. A quick 0.3 inches brings the seasonal over 20 inches.

The next 24 hours should be interesting NWS sticking with 3-5 up here for now.

isn't that interesting that they now have a wwa for the same amount all way down to NYC...I thought this was all a nw snow and all rain here now im get snow? I'll take it. If we get the upper end I may be home wed if schools are called with my dsughtet. Yonkers doesn't play when it comes to snow they close schools pretty easy due to our large hills. We are known in many places as little San Francisco.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by jldio on Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:17 am

25 degrees with light snow falling Wayne, NJ

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:51 am

Just had some light snow here in Allendale

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:58 am

29*...has that smell and feel for snow....
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:00 am

I’m expecting mostly rain here on LI but I think this is a decent nowast event. Cold ground, cold mid and upper levels, but the sfc is the problem. With cold ocean temps and a departing arctic airmass, I remain skeptical. If precip comes down hard, and it occurs at night, there could be a surprise. Maybe not as much for the south shore and Far East end.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:03 am

FWIW JB insists LI will still eek out 2-4". If you have weather Bell watch his Raging Weather Bell video for his reasoning. Very interesting to say the least. I'm not holding my breath but heck it is 22* IMBY right now.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:07 am

sroc4 wrote:FWIW JB insists LI will still eek out 2-4".  If you have weather Bell watch his Raging Weather Bell video for his reasoning.  Very interesting to say the least.  I'm not holding my breath but heck it is 22* IMBY right now.

We will see. But yea so far cold air is holding on. Even with the southerly flow.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:11 am

Still think this whole thing is being way over-modeled, but I'm clearly the minority aha

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:14 am

aiannone wrote:I’m expecting mostly rain here on LI but I think this is a decent nowast event. Cold ground, cold mid and upper levels, but the sfc is the problem. With cold ocean temps and a departing arctic airmass, I remain skeptical. If precip comes down hard, and it occurs at night, there could be a surprise. Maybe not as much for the south shore and Far East end.

I posted very similar thoughts yesterday. With all levels of the atmosphere below freezing except the surface and with most of the precept occurring at night even with the surface temperature of 33 to 34° you would think that those areas still accumulate. I think the National Weather Service is starting to change their thinking on this a bit this morning just by issuing the winter weather advisory for the Bronx and Manhattan. I don't know if they could divide the advisories by County but you would think at the very least Northern Nassau would be in the same advisory and possibly northern suffolk as well.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:15 am

rb924119 wrote:Still think this whole thing is being way over-modeled, but I'm clearly the minority aha

I'm with you
I just dont see this being a mainly rain event. The push of warm air isn't that strong and this is a weak low.
There are going to be surprises with this one
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:30 am

HI RES NAM - ALL HAIL!




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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:49 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:I’m expecting mostly rain here on LI but I think this is a decent nowast event. Cold ground, cold mid and upper levels, but the sfc is the problem. With cold ocean temps and a departing arctic airmass, I remain skeptical. If precip comes down hard, and it occurs at night, there could be a surprise. Maybe not as much for the south shore and Far East end.

I posted very similar thoughts yesterday. With all levels of the atmosphere below freezing except the surface and with most of the precept occurring at night even with the surface temperature of 33 to 34° you would think that those areas still accumulate. I think the National Weather Service is starting to change their thinking on this a bit this morning just by issuing the winter weather advisory for the Bronx and Manhattan. I don't know if they could divide the advisories by County but you would think at the very least Northern Nassau would be in the same advisory and possibly northern suffolk as well.

Yes they can CP and have done so as recently as earlier this winter season.  I said this yesterday.  The NWS has JFK getting 3" on the s shore, literally on the Atlantic ocean, and my house in Northern Nassau at 200' elevation getting just a smidge over 2". THIS SCENARIO IS IMPOSSIBLE!

Anyway my thoughts are a sloppy 2-4" city on through the North Shore through Suffolk.  1-2" immediate s shore.

My dad is upstate in Ulster under the 1" bullseye qpf the hi-res NAM just put out. Shocked
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by RJB8525 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:37 am



mt holly reeled in the numbers a bit but i like the hi res lol
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by King-Ubas on Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:42 am

So...I know what the models are showing/forecasts are saying.....but for some reason but "gut" is just telling me that this will under perform up here in NW jersey.......just a hunch and nothing else.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano on Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:46 am

I got about 1/4 inch so far (eyeballed)
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:49 am

12z GFS, really playing with LI here.  But you can see it prints 4" on the CT shore, and just 15mi to the south on the north shore of LI...nothing. That will be a heck of a cutoff. Curious to see if it actually happens that way
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:00 pm

Here in the office in Midtown, the sun is out. I could see this further increasing temperatures here. I am becoming more skeptical of getting good snow here. North and west has a nice shot of good snow. Not here though.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:02 pm

I am stealing Scott's drawing from the Christmas Day storm because this storm track reminds me a lot of it. Albeit now the water temps are a bit colder, no primary cutting to our west, and we are a bit colder, but where the r/s sets up and how the backside changeover (did squat along the coast) may be very similar.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:25 pm

Very light snow beginning here.Calm winds.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:38 pm

If the bands can merge Arctic front with the LP which is possible then we can see more lift and greater totals - I think this is true for a swath from EPA, NWNJ (to say Western Passaic County through the LHV, HV into CT.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:49 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Here in the office in Midtown, the sun is out.  I could see this further increasing temperatures here.  I am becoming more skeptical of getting good snow here.  North and west has a nice shot of good snow.  Not here though.

You know I love you so take this as constructive criticism, but I get the feeling if you won the lottery you'd be depressed about all of the taxes you'd have to pay.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

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