Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:34 am

First flakes falling in Flemington

by **billg315** Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:39 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Models showing some amping up of this clipper as it hits the coast. Something that intrigues me is that they're showing rain in CNJ for a portion of the storm, but I see nearly all layers below freezing, with the surface near freezing to marginally above (32-33 deg). Now if 850 was above freezing I could see rain, but I'm having a hard time buying it with a freezing to marginally above surface. Would expect wet snow instead. But maybe there's another warm layer further up that I'm not seeing but I doubt it. Watch for bust potential in the western part of the coastal plain, could get more than expected (3-5 vs forecast 1-2) or we could get less should the rain verify. I am more confident on a period of rain by the immediate coast due to ocean influence, but it could surprise us, so I say watch it regardless. Pretty confident on 3-6" in NJ north of 80 and NEPA/ SW HV.

I was thinking this same thing looking at the temp profiles on the models. Any above freezing temps in central NJ seems confined to the surface if even there. Mostly below freezing at all layers with no warm nose aloft (in interior NJ). This makes me think that IF models are right about that we stay all snow which I think could be difference between a 1-2” event and a 3-5”. That said, if I had a dollar for every time a clipper was to pick up additional energy once it hit the coast and it didn’t - well, I’d have quite a few dollars. So I still think 1-3 is the safe bet.

by **dkodgis** Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:43 am

A kiss of snow this morning, just coating everything. Now what comes will be interesting.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:47 am

Pavement with a quick coating but can see blue sky through a very thin cloud layer so maybe just a quick burst for now.

No virga with this one.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:54 am

Getting an early snow shower right now, 26 degrees some very dark skies around.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:07 am

21° light snow, intensity decreasing. A quick 0.3 inches brings the seasonal over 20 inches.

The next 24 hours should be interesting NWS sticking with 3-5 up here for now.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:21° light snow, intensity decreasing. A quick 0.3 inches brings the seasonal over 20 inches.

The next 24 hours should be interesting NWS sticking with 3-5 up here for now.

isn't that interesting that they now have a wwa for the same amount all way down to NYC...I thought this was all a nw snow and all rain here now im get snow? I'll take it. If we get the upper end I may be home wed if schools are called with my dsughtet. Yonkers doesn't play when it comes to snow they close schools pretty easy due to our large hills. We are known in many places as little San Francisco.

by jldio Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:17 am

25 degrees with light snow falling Wayne, NJ

by **amugs** Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:51 am

Just had some light snow here in Allendale

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:58 am

29*...has that smell and feel for snow....

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:00 am

I’m expecting mostly rain here on LI but I think this is a decent nowast event. Cold ground, cold mid and upper levels, but the sfc is the problem. With cold ocean temps and a departing arctic airmass, I remain skeptical. If precip comes down hard, and it occurs at night, there could be a surprise. Maybe not as much for the south shore and Far East end.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:03 am

FWIW JB insists LI will still eek out 2-4". If you have weather Bell watch his Raging Weather Bell video for his reasoning. Very interesting to say the least. I'm not holding my breath but heck it is 22* IMBY right now.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:07 am

sroc4 wrote:FWIW JB insists LI will still eek out 2-4". If you have weather Bell watch his Raging Weather Bell video for his reasoning. Very interesting to say the least. I'm not holding my breath but heck it is 22* IMBY right now.

We will see. But yea so far cold air is holding on. Even with the southerly flow.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:11 am

Still think this whole thing is being way over-modeled, but I'm clearly the minority aha

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:14 am

aiannone wrote:I’m expecting mostly rain here on LI but I think this is a decent nowast event. Cold ground, cold mid and upper levels, but the sfc is the problem. With cold ocean temps and a departing arctic airmass, I remain skeptical. If precip comes down hard, and it occurs at night, there could be a surprise. Maybe not as much for the south shore and Far East end.

I posted very similar thoughts yesterday. With all levels of the atmosphere below freezing except the surface and with most of the precept occurring at night even with the surface temperature of 33 to 34° you would think that those areas still accumulate. I think the National Weather Service is starting to change their thinking on this a bit this morning just by issuing the winter weather advisory for the Bronx and Manhattan. I don't know if they could divide the advisories by County but you would think at the very least Northern Nassau would be in the same advisory and possibly northern suffolk as well.

by **Snow88** Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:15 am

rb924119 wrote:Still think this whole thing is being way over-modeled, but I'm clearly the minority aha

I'm with you
I just dont see this being a mainly rain event. The push of warm air isn't that strong and this is a weak low.
There are going to be surprises with this one

by **amugs** Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:30 am

HI RES NAM - ALL HAIL!

by Guest Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:49 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:I’m expecting mostly rain here on LI but I think this is a decent nowast event. Cold ground, cold mid and upper levels, but the sfc is the problem. With cold ocean temps and a departing arctic airmass, I remain skeptical. If precip comes down hard, and it occurs at night, there could be a surprise. Maybe not as much for the south shore and Far East end.

I posted very similar thoughts yesterday. With all levels of the atmosphere below freezing except the surface and with most of the precept occurring at night even with the surface temperature of 33 to 34° you would think that those areas still accumulate. I think the National Weather Service is starting to change their thinking on this a bit this morning just by issuing the winter weather advisory for the Bronx and Manhattan. I don't know if they could divide the advisories by County but you would think at the very least Northern Nassau would be in the same advisory and possibly northern suffolk as well.

Yes they can CP and have done so as recently as earlier this winter season. I said this yesterday. The NWS has JFK getting 3" on the s shore, literally on the Atlantic ocean, and my house in Northern Nassau at 200' elevation getting just a smidge over 2". THIS SCENARIO IS IMPOSSIBLE!

Anyway my thoughts are a sloppy 2-4" city on through the North Shore through Suffolk. 1-2" immediate s shore.

My dad is upstate in Ulster under the 1" bullseye qpf the hi-res NAM just put out. Shocked

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:37 am

January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 5 Stormt14

mt holly reeled in the numbers a bit but i like the hi res lol

by King-Ubas Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:42 am

So...I know what the models are showing/forecasts are saying.....but for some reason but "gut" is just telling me that this will under perform up here in NW jersey.......just a hunch and nothing else.

by **mikeypizano** Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:46 am

I got about 1/4 inch so far (eyeballed)

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:49 am

12z GFS, really playing with LI here. But you can see it prints 4" on the CT shore, and just 15mi to the south on the north shore of LI...nothing. That will be a heck of a cutoff. Curious to see if it actually happens that way January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 5 Captur31

January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 5 Captur31

by **Math23x7** Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:00 pm

Here in the office in Midtown, the sun is out. I could see this further increasing temperatures here. I am becoming more skeptical of getting good snow here. North and west has a nice shot of good snow. Not here though.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:02 pm

I am stealing Scott's drawing from the Christmas Day storm because this storm track reminds me a lot of it. Albeit now the water temps are a bit colder, no primary cutting to our west, and we are a bit colder, but where the r/s sets up and how the backside changeover (did squat along the coast) may be very similar.
January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 5 Captur32

January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 5 Captur32

January 16th-17th Snow Event - Page 5 Captur33

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:25 pm

Very light snow beginning here.Calm winds.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:38 pm

If the bands can merge Arctic front with the LP which is possible then we can see more lift and greater totals - I think this is true for a swath from EPA, NWNJ (to say Western Passaic County through the LHV, HV into CT.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:49 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Here in the office in Midtown, the sun is out. I could see this further increasing temperatures here. I am becoming more skeptical of getting good snow here. North and west has a nice shot of good snow. Not here though.

You know I love you so take this as constructive criticism, but I get the feeling if you won the lottery you'd be depressed about all of the taxes you'd have to pay.

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