2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Not that many/any of you really care to hear, but I’m currently on vacation with highly limited internet access (mobile only), so the ability to really sit and comfortably analyze anything in detail is quite restricted.....cell phone screens are too small for this field hahaha anyway, I quickly skimmed through the pages in the thread and would like to offer some additional opinion. I believe that not enough attention is being paid to the trough progged to be progressing through the U.S. simultaneously with Dorian’s westward motion and possible strengthening. Based on my (subjective) analysis, this trough should wind up a bit stronger/deeper and faster with its progression compared with current modeling. At face value, this would be a good thing, as I think the likelihood of interaction would be greatly increased and a sweep out to sea much more likely, especially when considering the historical tendency for storms coming from this general direction (southeast of Florida) to not “want” to landfall along the eastern coast of Florida where the coastline is not due north-south. However, Dorian’s rate of intensification has a direct impact on whether a connection with this trough (hypothetically) occurs, as the faster intensitification occurs, the slower storms tend to move (as evidenced by the bimodally distributed EPS members posted earlier).

As we know, intensity forecasts are very uncertain when it comes to these systems, but given what we have seen so far, it appears to be overachieving. That said, it is also running along the northwestern flank of large-scale subsidence per 200hPa CHI charts which could work to mitigate overall strengthening down the road (i.e. acting as a capping mechanism with regard to intensity as this larger-scale subsidence partislly offsets smaller-scale factors).

Other factors already mentioned include the effects of diabatic and latent heat release feedbacks, in addition to the Northern Hemispheric alignment, climatology, and meso-scale evolutions near land, and based on what I’m currently seeing, I think a last-minute turn to the north along/just offshore of Florida’s east coast is more likely than not, with an eventual turn out sea off the Carolinas. I wish I could elaborate further with images and stuff, but I can only do so much on mobile. Just my two cents, and obviously open for discussion

And rb the euro and cmc just did this to a degree but not before landfall and next Thursday according to euro we have a 990mb hurricane off the jersey coast.....cmc has remnants as it stays over land longer but we do get effects. Didn't think it might be a possibility we would come into the mix somehow but I suppose it's possible but that's so far down the line we wouldn't know that until he affects Florida first.

Nothing is off the table some model show it going right through Florida back into the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast there so many scenarios so I have to keep an eye on everything and see what happens in the next couple days with models

euro ensembles changed greatly from yesterdays now brings him up coast just offshore. the new weatherbell suxs where is the 50 individual windows indies for euro? also al where did you find that wind track?

jesus cat 4/5 at landfall 152mph gusts!!! this would be aweful.

Can’t post the image, but the 06z EURO/Ensemble is very much in line with my thinking........too bad it’s 06z lmao

Beware the windshield wiper effect lol

rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect lol

Yes Bernie, lol

Where do you find 06z and 18z euros? weatherbell and tropical tidbits do not seem to have them.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect lol

Yes Bernie, lol

Lmaoooo well, it’s true! Haha and weathermaps.com, maybe? Idk, I saw them on a different board and am just relaying haha

They are showing it making landfall as a Cat.4.around vero beach, but the cone encompasses basically the whole state of Florida up to central Georgia. Looks like a slow mover too which isn't good.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/severeweather/hurricanes?hurricane=2019-dorian&ocid=SK2HDHP

Wow cat 4 at landfall 161mph gusts. I can see this getting to cat 5 at this PT.

I'm sure this is going to stir up some controversy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/publix-makes-hurricane-cookie-cake-as-dorian-looms/ar-AAGvQ2x?ocid=SK2HDHP

GreyBeard wrote:I'm sure this is going to stir up some controversy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/publix-makes-hurricane-cookie-cake-as-dorian-looms/ar-AAGvQ2x?ocid=SK2HDHP

lorry that's not cool. It is but not at this time.

Madonne 12z gfs has Dorian over Florida for 2 plus day!! Then he regenerates to a major again and sits off se coast then hits Carolinas and then is about 100 miles off shore of nj in lr....this is gonna be a long one to track!

Yeah, Im starting to get concerned today. In-laws in Florida, east coast - Boynton Beach. Gotta start getting prepped for worst case, just in case it happens.

I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all

jmanley32 wrote:I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all

Yeah. Thats frightening for you. I'm sure some of the can be quite stubborn when facing dangerous conditions.

Yeah, I know its LR but looks like its possible we could be looking at a TS or remnants up this way at some point, Euro has a 996mb storm over midatlantic at 240. I know we wont know crap about that until we know about florida, I mean look how much Dorian has changed in just 24 hrs.

Grselig wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all

Yeah. Thats frightening for you.  I'm sure some of the can be quite stubborn when facing dangerous conditions.  

Oh they all say just some wind and rain no big deal, they staying pffff to evacuations. I know its family but I have no sympathy for stupidity.

jmanley32 wrote:

Grselig wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all

Yeah. Thats frightening for you.  I'm sure some of the can be quite stubborn when facing dangerous conditions.  

Oh they all say just some wind and rain no big deal, they staying pffff to evacuations.  I know its family but I have no sympathy for stupidity.

I hear you. "Andrew was not big deal." Im gonna to start up my generator just in case.

Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so.

billg315 wrote:Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so.

The goofus model. Im with you but im not seeing this up here yet. The forecast pathbis all over the place. Most of them take it northeast after Florida instead of North.

billg315 wrote:Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so.

While I personally don’t think the circulation makes it this far north, I think the idea is still valid; though I think the timeline is not. However, to play devil’s advocate here, Hurricane Donna was the only storm in recorded history to bring urricaje force winds to every state along the East Coast from Florida to Maine, so it can happen :p

In my mind a hurricane/tropical system affecting the entire coast would most likely do so over about a two day period. These things tend to move quickly once they get north of Florida. But yes, I suppose anything is possible in terms of track. Possible being the operative word.

I'd be highly surprised if he stuck around that long along the east coast. The 18z gfs was fairly similar but after obx does head ne and develops into a huge subtropical system. Would still wreak havoc on the beaches but in that scenario that be it for us. I'm not used to not hearing Frank chime in. I miss ya guy hope things are going well in your life.

recon 973??