2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Page 4 of 16 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 10 ... 16  Next

Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:51 am

Nothing is off the table some model show it going right through Florida back into the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast there so many scenarios so I have to keep an eye on everything and see what happens in the next couple days with models
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4344
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 41
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:51 am

euro ensembles changed greatly from yesterdays now brings him up coast just offshore. the new weatherbell suxs where is the 50 individual windows indies for euro? also al where did you find that wind track?

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Ecmwf-10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 am

jesus cat 4/5 at landfall 152mph gusts!!! this would be aweful.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Ecmwf-11
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:03 am

Can’t post the image, but the 06z EURO/Ensemble is very much in line with my thinking........too bad it’s 06z lmao

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4901
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:03 am

Beware the windshield wiper effect lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4901
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:04 am

rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect lol
Yes Bernie, lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:06 am

Where do you find 06z and 18z euros? weatherbell and tropical tidbits do not seem to have them.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:19 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect lol
Yes Bernie, lol

Lmaoooo well, it’s true! Haha and weathermaps.com, maybe? Idk, I saw them on a different board and am just relaying haha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4901
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by GreyBeard on Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:17 pm

They are showing it making landfall as a Cat.4.around vero beach, but the cone encompasses basically the whole state of Florida up to central Georgia. Looks like a slow mover too which isn't good.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/severeweather/hurricanes?hurricane=2019-dorian&ocid=SK2HDHP

GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 423
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : Eastern Nassau County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:36 pm

Wow cat 4 at landfall 161mph gusts. I can see this getting to cat 5 at this PT.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by GreyBeard on Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:40 pm


GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 423
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : Eastern Nassau County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:04 pm

lorry that's not cool. It is but not at this time.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:15 pm

Madonne 12z gfs has Dorian over Florida for 2 plus day!! Then he regenerates to a major again and sits off se coast then hits Carolinas and then is about 100 miles off shore of nj in lr....this is gonna be a long one to track!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Grselig on Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:00 pm

Yeah, Im starting to get concerned today. In-laws in Florida, east coast - Boynton Beach. Gotta start getting prepped for worst case, just in case it happens.
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1100
Reputation : 123
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 49
Location : Wayne NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:22 pm

I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Grselig on Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all

Yeah. Thats frightening for you. I'm sure some of the can be quite stubborn when facing dangerous conditions.
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1100
Reputation : 123
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 49
Location : Wayne NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:17 pm

Yeah, I know its LR but looks like its possible we could be looking at a TS or remnants up this way at some point, Euro has a 996mb storm over midatlantic at 240. I know we wont know crap about that until we know about florida, I mean look how much Dorian has changed in just 24 hrs.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:18 pm

Grselig wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all

Yeah. Thats frightening for you.  I'm sure some of the can be quite stubborn when facing dangerous conditions.  
Oh they all say just some wind and rain no big deal, they staying pffff to evacuations. I know its family but I have no sympathy for stupidity.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Grselig on Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:38 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Grselig wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I got family all up and down the east coast of Florida from palm beach to Daytona. Gonna be hard to miss them all

Yeah. Thats frightening for you.  I'm sure some of the can be quite stubborn when facing dangerous conditions.  
Oh they all say just some wind and rain no big deal, they staying pffff to evacuations.  I know its family but I have no sympathy for stupidity.

I hear you. "Andrew was not big deal." Im gonna to start up my generator just in case.
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1100
Reputation : 123
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 49
Location : Wayne NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:47 pm

Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so. Rolling Eyes
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2765
Reputation : 145
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:59 pm

billg315 wrote:Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so. Rolling Eyes

The goofus model. Im with you but im not seeing this up here yet. The forecast pathbis all over the place. Most of them take it northeast after Florida instead of North.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4344
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 41
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:45 pm

billg315 wrote:Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so. Rolling Eyes

While I personally don’t think the circulation makes it this far north, I think the idea is still valid; though I think the timeline is not. However, to play devil’s advocate here, Hurricane Donna was the only storm in recorded history to bring urricaje force winds to every state along the East Coast from Florida to Maine, so it can happen :p

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4901
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:20 pm

In my mind a hurricane/tropical system affecting the entire coast would most likely do so over about a two day period. These things tend to move quickly once they get north of Florida. But yes, I suppose anything is possible in terms of track. Possible being the operative word. told ya
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2765
Reputation : 145
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:06 pm

I'd be highly surprised if he stuck around that long along the east coast. The 18z gfs was fairly similar but after obx does head ne and develops into a huge subtropical system. Would still wreak havoc on the beaches but in that scenario that be it for us. I'm not used to not hearing Frank chime in. I miss ya guy hope things are going well in your life.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15839
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Radz on Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:10 pm

recon 973??
Radz
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 849
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 4 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 16 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 10 ... 16  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum