Re: December 11th 2019 Snow Potential

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:31 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Temps are coming down we have some strong winds (20+)right now you can feel the cold front coming thru!! My son is a freshman in high school and on days of possible snow the pjs go inside out and ice cubes in the toilet..I love when he acts like a kid!! Come on cold!! Come on snow!!

After the way last winter and our first two storms this year went for us down here in Ocean, I didn't really tell my kids anything about tomorrow. I figure maybe they can wake up with a nice fluffy surprise (and a delay of course, yes, I'm rooting for it, who wouldn't?). Speaking of which, check out the latest from Mt Holly:

"The heaviest snowfall will be before daybreak on Tuesday north/west
of I-95. However, less QPF is forecast in these areas so many areas may end up with
less than an inch. For the I-95 corridor, the heaviest snowfall is
forecast to fall from about 4-7AM. Farther south across southern and
coastal NJ as well as Delmarva, snowfall will end by around 10-11
AM.

Most of the snow will only stick to grassy and elevated
surfaces where it can fall quickly enough and temps can cool to near
freezing. Therefore, we aren`t expecting any significant travel
issues, however there may be some slushy spots on roads causing them
to become slippery.

As far as total snow accumulations, we`re expecting a coating around
an inch or so for most areas, with less than an inch across Delmarva
and extreme southern NJ. Farther north and east, isolated areas up
to 2" are possible. This is mainly confined to areas that will be
colder at the onset of snow and areas that will receive snow for
longer as the band of precip is moving offshore. The highest
uncertainty for snow amounts is across Monmouth and Ocean Counties
where banding and moderate snow may persist longer potentially
leading to higher totals."

Mt Holly never says anything optimistic about accumulating snow chances in Ocean County, so this is cool to see. I'm optimistic for maybe even breaking 3" imby for the first time since March 2018! Like 9 straight 'storms', without cracking 3 measly inches! Lol...that's a losing streak right there!

We'll see what tonight brings, 44* and on pace to hopefully see the snow in the 2-3 am range. The cold is def ahead of schedule and other nowcast signs apparently look good, and here I go again...lol

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:54 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Temps are coming down we have some strong winds (20+)right now you can feel the cold front coming thru!! My son is a freshman in high school and on days of possible snow the pjs go inside out and ice cubes in the toilet..I love when he acts like a kid!! Come on cold!! Come on snow!!

After the way last winter and our first two storms this year went for us down here in Ocean, I didn't really tell my kids anything about tomorrow. I figure maybe they can wake up with a nice fluffy surprise (and a delay of course, yes, I'm rooting for it, who wouldn't?). Speaking of which, check out the latest from Mt Holly:

"The heaviest snowfall will be before daybreak on Tuesday north/west
of I-95. However, less QPF is forecast in these areas so many areas may end up with
less than an inch. For the I-95 corridor, the heaviest snowfall is
forecast to fall from about 4-7AM. Farther south across southern and
coastal NJ as well as Delmarva, snowfall will end by around 10-11
AM.

Most of the snow will only stick to grassy and elevated
surfaces where it can fall quickly enough and temps can cool to near
freezing. Therefore, we aren`t expecting any significant travel
issues, however there may be some slushy spots on roads causing them
to become slippery.

As far as total snow accumulations, we`re expecting a coating around
an inch or so for most areas, with less than an inch across Delmarva
and extreme southern NJ. Farther north and east, isolated areas up
to 2" are possible. This is mainly confined to areas that will be
colder at the onset of snow and areas that will receive snow for
longer as the band of precip is moving offshore. The highest
uncertainty for snow amounts is across Monmouth and Ocean Counties
where banding and moderate snow may persist longer potentially
leading to higher totals."

Mt Holly never says anything optimistic about accumulating snow chances in Ocean County, so this is cool to see. I'm optimistic for maybe even breaking 3" imby for the first time since March 2018! Like 9 straight 'storms', without cracking 3 measly inches! Lol...that's a losing streak right there!

We'll see what tonight brings, 44* and on pace to hopefully see the snow in the 2-3 am range. The cold is def ahead of schedule and other nowcast signs apparently look good, and here I go again...lol

I hope your children wake up to a surprise of white! Hope that band sets up over us!...in this house with a school start time of 7:25 and wake up time of 6:30 we would love a delay.. Wink

I so want to stay up for change over but won't make it...good luck to all!

by **1190ftalt** Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:58 pm

Ground covered in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude, still coming down slowly, cars covered, little pause but I think the heavy stuff coming, last picture Friday on the Appalachian Trail by my house at 1605 ft altitude, 1 hour and 15 minutes from the GWB ! There is hope !

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by **algae888** Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:37 am

Snowing now in the Bronx mixed with rain 37° changeover happened in a little faster the big issue is will it stick
The latest hrrr has three to4 in for the city and nearby suburbs I'm sure we'll lose some of that to Melting though

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:01 am

Moderate snow here finally at 34°. Hopefully it's been cold long enough to get good stickage!

by jaydoy Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:00 am

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33 in Cranford, and it’s just sticking to the cars at the moment.

by **algae888** Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:04 am

Moderate snow in the South Bronx coldest surface are starting to get slushy 34 degrees. It should be better in Mount Vernon I'll check when I get home from work

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:06 am

Snowing at 33 here on LI. Colder surfaces starting to get accumulation.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:22 am

Snowing for an hour and have a nice coating on grassy surfaces. No accumulation on pavements. 32.7°

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:38 am

2” on cold surfaces. 31 degrees. Snowing moderately. Yay!!!

by jaydoy Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:42 am

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Just got to Raritan, 32 here, pretty much starting to stick everywhere and coming down at a decent rate

by **SENJsnowman** Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:03 am

34* and just started snowing big flakes here in Bayville...looks like its sticking already too.

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:08 am

Roads completely covered as I see some early morning traffic.

by **frank 638** Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:11 am

Mod snow temps is at 33* sticking only on grassy and car tops only

by **docstox12** Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:24 am

30 degrees, just had a final burst 1/2 hour ago.Looks like 2 inches to me, everything covered.Plow went by a little while ago My wife, a school aide in Chester, has a delayed opening.Nice to get the snowpack back.

by **algae888** Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:42 am

Heavy snow approaching 1-inch on the coldest surface is here in the South Bronx slushy coating on the pavement now

by **billg315** Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:44 am

33* with light snow. Grass and cars coated, pavement mostly wet.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:55 am

Well just as I expected very little here from what I can see out window. Just a light flurry now. Roads are fine and it'll be a regular day it appears I don't see anyone having DO for school except maybe long island. Oh well I'll take it in stride. Looks like radar really broke up and now my forecast shows ending at 7 or 8am. Radar does look like Sr models I will give them that. Hoping for the next. Congrats to anyone who got enough to stick to more than just cars. I can't tell but maybe a inch here? It's not unexpected.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:09 am

Yay just got delay announcement. And I was wrong most districts at least in Westchester NY have 2 HR delay.

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:12 am

34* moderate snow. Accumulation mostly on cold and grassy surfaces. Streets just starting to look slushy. About 1/2” so far.

The temp crash is impressive in its own right

by **brownie** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:13 am

1.25 inches here. Driveway and street covered. We are in the lull now and I expect it will start up again just when I have to leave for work. It’s nice to have the white blanket back after the past couple of days of rain melted everything from the last storm.

by **algae888** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:30 am

What were the expectations with this storm most models were showing 3 to 4 in Max except for the goofy short-range Canadian models which had some 6in amounts. You had to figure we were going to lose a couple of inches with melting from the warm ground and temps above freezing so an inch or two was to be expected. We have close to an inch here in the South Bronx probably more at home in Mount Vernon as it's a little colder will measure when I get home any snow is good snow

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:31 am

About to get pummeled.

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by **sroc4** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:33 am

algae888 wrote:What were the expectations with this storm most models were showing 3 to 4 in Max except for the goofy short-range Canadian models which had some 6in amounts. You had to figure we were going to lose a couple of inches with melting from the warm ground and temps above freezing so an inch or two was to be expected. We have close to an inch here in the South Bronx probably more at home in Mount Vernon as it's a little colder will measure when I get home any snow is good snow

Voice of reason Al well said. If this were a late Feb storm I’d be more disappointed that more energy didn’t come out of the SW and a nice low pop and enhance back end snow. But for early December I really can’t complain.

by **bloc1357** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:33 am

sroc4 wrote:About to get pummeled.

I'm in the tail end of that band in western suffolk, it is coming down good!!

by **algae888** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:34 am

sroc4 wrote:About to get pummeled.

Scott that's going to be a fun little band when it gets to you that's a two inch an hour rate if it was a little colder would have been really nice still snowing even though radar shows nothing over head with one more band to go through

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:49 am

Snowing moderately. A solid 2" otg. I take! 3.25" for December so far which is more than half average snow fall for me. Active subtropical jet leads me to believe more chances will come!

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