December 11th 2019 Snow Potential

Nice Scott hoping we can boost the totals closer to 5 along coast. Inland got their big one last time our turn and 3 to 6 is be very happy with. This doesn't look like a system that could produce crazy amounts though nam was very surprising. Sorry northern but hope man comes bit south.

sroc4 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1203744714341670913

thank you for the update..exciting December so far!

NAM has heavy snow for all except maybe far N & W this is a coastal special on this run at 7am, thats not good for those who have to commute no matter what.

Peeps,

The wave is gonna form along teh front and the snow will be see all the back to Memphis Tenn and possibly Little Rock and NE Texas.
The GFS has come aorund at 500mb to show the energy swing around the base of the trough and even holding back a bit allowing the cold air injection to get here and then the Jet Streak to allow the precip field to expand. This is a 2-4" type of event with WWA that most likely will go up tomorrow morning after the 0z runs tonight.
It will be a PITA for the commute with Delayed Openings and closing very possible for schools.
JET STREAK WOW


Purple areas show heavy snow rates 1-2" per hour type

The energy off the NC coast if true will pop a weak coastal and enhance teh snowfall and slow up the boundary and thus the 4-6/8" swath that we are seeing in the SREFS and RGEM - they are onto this and we could be seeing a 2014 SB 2 surprise IMO.

City will lose an inch to two before stickage - not so about 10-15 mile outside the city for BL going to be 30/31*.

Great work here today.

The nam seems to have the heavier precip more inland versus others being near the coast.

amugs wrote:The energy off the NC coast if true will pop a weak coastal and enhance teh snowfall and slow up the boundary and thus the 4-6/8" swath that we are seeing in the SREFS and RGEM - they are onto this and we could be seeing a 2014 SB 2 surprise IMO.

City will lose an inch to two before stickage - not so about 10-15 mile outside the city for BL going to be 30/31*.

Great work here today.

The RGEM isnt in range yet for us, do you mean the swath of snow in the center of the country? It would be amazing to get a storm that big, nam was a tick up from 18z but not much for the coast or even inland pretty far N &W to get into 4-5.

00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign.

aiannone wrote:

sroc4 wrote:00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign.

I would!

Me too but what NAM run is that? , Thats not what I saw on wxbell and thats a wxbell map, is that the k word ratio thing? Just curious why the gamp between the 6 inch areas?

Yeah it is the Kutchera (sorry frank) ratio map of the 12km nam, man the whole center there gets jipped out of several inches but hey I guess we will take what we can get, is that a warm nose? I believe it was stated that would not be a issue.

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah it is the Kutchera (sorry frank) ratio map of the 12km nam, man the whole center there gets jipped out of several inches but hey I guess we will take what we can get, is that a warm nose? I believe it was stated that would not be a issue.

Banding. Here is the 00z GFS

sroc4 wrote:00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign.

Without a doubt

The 6z nam cut everything way down extremely short duration of snow. Now gfs had roughly double nam lol

Euro cut back too

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah it is the Kutchera (sorry frank) ratio map of the 12km nam, man the whole center there gets jipped out of several inches but hey I guess we will take what we can get, is that a warm nose? I believe it was stated that would not be a issue.

Banding. Here is the 00z GFS

I think I clicked report by accident Scott small screen on phone sorry bout that . I was saying looks like really short duration as 1 to 3 with ratios can't last but a hour or 2 at most. And mugs was talk bout 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. If this verifies I don't see snow that heavy unless it lasts a half HR lol

sroc4 wrote:Euro cut back too

still 2 days out plenty time to change. Of course on all the models I appear to be between banding with many others. Man we can't catch a break lol

Quickly looking at the jet streak it appears a little less robust and a tad further NE relative to the past few days. Not a good thing. This is the main driver to expanding The precip shield without a Defined LP.

Predicted temps for Wednesday are trending warmer and snowfall amounts are lessening.

Great still crossing fingers this trends back to past few days. And I thought you guys were sure temps wouldn't be a issue now it's go be warmer wed?

Yeah.  Give it until tomorrow morning before throwing in the towel with the caveat to keep expectations @ c-1".  These frontal passages with backend snow are really rare producers around here.  One way they can produce is if the Atlantic had some more support to slow down the flow or the trough was really sharp.  Neither of those things are on the table.