December 11th 2019 Snow Potential

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Post by hyde345 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Nws isn't too interested not even a hwo. And normally by now there would be. Just talks bout the rain.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 StormTotalSnowWeb1[/quote show off lol. Less a long coast? I thought it would be less further north looks like Hyde you luck out again 3 to 4 as we stand.

Nah, I would be happy with that but I'm north of that zone, about 35-40 miles NW of Carmel. I'm still expecting 1-2 although I wouldn't complain if I got more.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:10 pm

I guess we wait and see. Is this still going to be high ratio or are the temps go be warm enough that it'll be 10:1
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:38 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Nws isn't too interested not even a hwo. And normally by now there would be. Just talks bout the rain.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 StormTotalSnowWeb1[/quote show off lol. Less a long coast? I thought it would be less further north looks like Hyde you luck out again 3 to 4 as we stand.

Nah, I would be happy with that but I'm north of that zone, about 35-40 miles NW of Carmel. I'm still expecting 1-2 although I wouldn't complain if I got more.

I'd take this. Three to four would be great since I'll most likely be back to zero inches of snow OTG by tomorrow night.

However by the looks of the 0Z Nam 3-4 will not happen in Orange County.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:03 pm

3km nam has some getting less than a inch cap 2.5-3. gfs holds to 18z.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:21 am

South and East folks special

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 20191210
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 60e5ef10
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:29 am

Great, skins for you and Mom plus the LI and shore crew! It will get you all in the Christmas spirit for sure.I still get 2-3 on those maps so I am right at the northern edge.Anyway, it's a great December this year, so different from the warm and rainy ones of the recent past.
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Post by amugs on Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:06 am

Wow just watched Lee Goldberg and they have literally about one inch for NYC meyro and a coating to flakes everywhere else followingbtheb6Z model runs. Have not looked at any maps yet but boy if true this fizzled as the NAM was saying yesterday.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:12 am

Not looking so great. The clear trend is the coast will benefit more than N&W and if accumulations do occur it will be confined to the coast. I’m adjusting my thinking to say a C-2” N&W and 1-3” for the coast.

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:13 am

Mugs, I was skeptical of this whole set up.It looked like a snow squall scenario with an inch or a dusting to me, after a cold front passage.No reliable source of moisture.Hope I'm still wrong and the area gets 2 to 4.Trend of the models from yesterday is not good.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:22 am

Models want to give a burst of heavy snow along Jersey coast and LI. I think those areas someone can do well. Coming down hard towards dawn helps too. Wouldn't be surprised to see 3-5" in the areas that get the best precip.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:39 am

@docstox12 wrote:Great, skins for you and Mom plus the LI and shore crew! It will get you all in the Christmas spirit for sure.I still get 2-3 on those maps so I am right at the northern edge.Anyway, it's a great December this year, so different from the warm and rainy ones of the recent past.

Tx Doc...funny that is it 59 out and 71 in the house..thinking of putting on the AC...is that not crazy??
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Post by amugs on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:08 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Great, skins for you and Mom plus the LI and shore crew! It will get you all in the Christmas spirit for sure.I still get 2-3 on those maps so I am right at the northern edge.Anyway, it's a great December this year, so different from the warm and rainy ones of the recent past.

Tx Doc...funny that is it 59 out and 71 in the house..thinking of putting on the AC...is that not crazy??

Open your windows and you have the 59* AC Mom!! Razz

@Doc - it was showing and I posted two days ago a wave developing along the front which we have seen before that would form a weak coastal low but the models have lost that idea as well.
Amazing how within 48 hours models that we spend millions of dollars on cant get a forecast right. This went from a possible 6" snowstorm for NE PA and NW NJ to probably a dusting for them to possible 3" in Mom's back yard and Skins beach house.

We'll see what we have with the rest of 12Z suite and watch the radar. Heck any snow is good snow and its early mid December so I'll take it and run!!!

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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:44 am

I think morning commute will be impacted and temps hover right around freezing. Who ever gets into the best bands is going to wake up to a nice surprise i think.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 Rgem12

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:33 am

@heehaw453 wrote:I think morning commute will be impacted and temps hover right around freezing.  Who ever gets into the best bands is going to wake up to a nice surprise i think.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 Rgem12
looks like some the purple gets into my area best possible timing for delay or cancellation.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:35 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Not looking so great. The clear trend is the coast will benefit more than N&W and if accumulations do occur it will be confined to the coast. I’m adjusting my thinking to say a C-2” N&W and 1-3” for the coast.
figured this didn't make sense now. Before it did. Good call hopefully over performs but if I see over a inch it'll be more than last time.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:47 am

Wow no advisories for nj. Upton beat them wow!
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Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:48 am

Seems like the 12z runs, including all the short range runs call for 2-3" throughout all of NJ, LI, and NYC metro, even up into LHV. Also showing scattered potential for a bit more...

In fact the latest HRDPS paints a thick stripe of 5-7" along the southern flank of I-95.

All that said, the runs all showed a short burst of snow, between 3-10 am, west to east. Seen it before where this just does not materialize...I'm keeping my expectations at c-2" right now...

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 HRDPS-12z-12-10

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Post by aiannone on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:00 pm

12z HRPDS went wild lol
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 C827b110
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:32 pm

@amugs wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Great, skins for you and Mom plus the LI and shore crew! It will get you all in the Christmas spirit for sure.I still get 2-3 on those maps so I am right at the northern edge.Anyway, it's a great December this year, so different from the warm and rainy ones of the recent past.

Tx Doc...funny that is it 59 out and 71 in the house..thinking of putting on the AC...is that not crazy??

Open your windows and you have the 59* AC Mom!! Razz

@Doc - it was showing and I posted two days ago a wave developing along the front which we have seen before that would form a weak coastal low but the models have lost that idea as well.
Amazing how within 48 hours models that we spend millions of dollars on cant get a forecast right. This went from a possible 6" snowstorm for NE PA and NW NJ to probably a dusting for them to possible 3" in Mom's back yard and Skins beach house.

We'll see what we have with the rest of 12Z suite and watch the radar. Heck any snow is good snow and its early mid December so I'll take it and run!!!
Ha would have done that..but husband is working from home today and he has terrible allergies...won't let me open windows...but the temperature dropped 10 degrees from this morning and I cooled off...lol. I would love to see snow.. we only had 11 inches all last winter so I will take what we can get...
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow no advisories for nj. Upton beat them wow!

Weather is saying less than an inch of accumulation...so we shall see...we did dropped 10 degrees from this morning. so temps are starting to head down
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Post by dkodgis on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:41 pm

My daughter just said something funny about weather forecasts:

"I'd sooner trust the President of the United States than the weatherman"

Out of the mouth of babes. I pointed out there are weatherwomen and forecasting is so complex; it can't be made simple at times and at times it can be made complicated.

Her response: "Just ask Alexa". My response: "I don't have to; I'm older than Google".
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:49 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Seems like the 12z runs, including all the short range runs call for 2-3" throughout all of NJ, LI, and NYC metro, even up into LHV. Also showing scattered potential for a bit more...

In fact the latest HRDPS paints a thick stripe of 5-7" along the southern flank of I-95.

All that said, the runs all showed a short burst of snow, between 3-10 am, west to east. Seen it before where this just does not materialize...I'm keeping my expectations at c-2" right now...

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 4 HRDPS-12z-12-10

It's been painting that band since yesterday, plus/minus 40 miles or so. It's definitely seeing some good frontogenesis.

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:11 pm

I hope that tics 15 miles north. Damn knocking on my doorstep.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:41 pm

I know accuwx isn't great but it shows 1 HR of snow 8 to 9am. Is it really going to be 1 HR of snow? Won't even be able stick at all that short.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:02 pm

I think we'll get a few hours of snow, but except where it's heavy I think it's unlikely to cause many issues on treated, main roadways as the temps will not get down to freezing in most areas tonight so you'll need heavier snow rates to accumulate on roadways. I'm seeing this as a C-2" type setup as well.
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