Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:11 pm

amugs wrote:Anthony Masiello
@antmasiello
After our midday burst of snow/sleet over E PA/NJ, mid levels begin to warm during the evening. However, low level winds appear to remain N/NE into the I-95 corridor. The potential exists for prolonged ZR into the night, even close to the cities.
Think about this case, for example: a quick FGEN snow/sleet accum for northern Mid Atlantic Monday could help keep the warm front suppressed during the evening/night as the surface cyclone tracks offshore. That can hold colder surfaces, esp. if there's a little speed to NE flow.
Wind Map from PB on 33& Rain site - wind barbs are out of the N/NE - the mid levels dont warm under that flow and that goes to the city
If true this BIGLY is trouble

Do you guys see this being snow to ice or is there a chance its all snow? With those ice numbers if it was all snow I think we would be taking godzilla amounts in some areas or close. 3-5 with 0.5 LE from the ice if was snow would add another 5 to 6 inches.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:26 pm

Do you think they will issue WWA or ice storm warnings for the area tomorrow night? Or would this be considered a WSW since its both snow and ice, no idea how NWS classifies this kind of wx situation.

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:28 pm

amugs wrote:Sorry but the track is further south again by about 25 miles this run and the block is growing thus pressing on teh storm and allowing the CAD to hang in and drive a tad more south.
The EURO is locked peeps and I have been on this with it since Wednesday, last week when I posted on it for my bday - well not an ice storm as such but a snowstorm - dont doubt Big Momma and her love for Mugs LOL!

Yup, the Euro has been consistent for 3 days now. GFS, as usual, has caved. Shocker.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:40 pm

Except the GFS gives no snow, and much less ice. I am not going by the goofus though, the Euro and now SR models have more consensus and its almost all SR model time anyways. Looks like we are in for a rough few days potentially, I still will not buy into this yet.

12z 12km NAM is nothing to really get worried about either, little snow and very little ice compared to Euro. Doesnt Euro tend to overdo ice and wind? Watch this end up being nothing.

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Except the GFS gives no snow, and much less ice. I am not going by the goofus though, the Euro and now SR models have more consensus and its almost all SR model time anyways. Looks like we are in for a rough few days potentially, I still will not buy into this yet.

12z 12km NAM is nothing to really get worried about either, little snow and very little ice compared to Euro. Doesnt Euro tend to overdo ice and wind? Watch this end up being nothing.

GFS caved as far as the intensity and track of the low. A few days ago it had a much stronger primary headed to the Great Lakes which was fugazy. It sucks.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:59 pm

Temper your excitement and bring down your expectations a bit. In my write up I showed how this low pressure could easily end up more north and west than where models had it this morning. The EURO is the only model showing a severe snow or ice storm. Right now I’m in the camp that says there will be a front end thump of snow but the ice threat will be confined to those N&W of I-95. The coast will change to rain. Those are my thoughts now but if the models begin to look like the EURO than I’ll adjust my thinking.

by **aiannone** Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:04 pm

Steve D’s call:

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Caf2a010

by **aiannone** Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:29 pm

by **frank 638** Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:41 pm

aiannone wrote:

I hope this stays as all snow and I will be very happy with 3 to 6 inches I know it’s going to change to freezing rain and rain I’d rather have sleet then Freezing rain.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:24 pm

00z nam isnt looking good way to far south does almost nothing. Wow we may go from snow and ice to a spritz.

00z is a non event, at 03z tues. when it was snowing and icing pretty hard on Euro and 12z nam the radar is now dry, there is a very brief bit of snow to no precip, whats going on with that? Its not like it moves a different way it just poof disappears very unlike the Euro, maybe Frank is right and the Euro was just flat out wrong, i guess that would mean the GFS CMC and earlier NAM runs were wrong too. If so would be a epic fail on al lthe models parts. Or am I missing ST?

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:38 pm

Okay, weird I am wrong it comes in 2 waves, looks like weaker LP pops to our sputh rather that in central NY, there is literally almost no snow but a bit of a ice storm but nothing like euro, most see 0.1-0.25 or less...on the 2nd part all way down to the city.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:44 pm

Still not much of a event, very minimal impacts though the ice will make travel difficult but this is by far NOT a crippling or even moderate event, as shown by NAM ATM, of course it could change, lets see if Euro follows and caves to NAM.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Nam-2111

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Nam-2112

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:50 pm

Also noticed this all happens on tuesday into wed on the nam not on monday night tuesday. Whats going on here? Looks like the first part that was supposed to give us our precip has fizzled out and now we start a storm at 7am ish on Tuesday. Does this have merit?

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Nam-ne14

BTW on the tail of that precip there is ice accretion of 1.85!!! Holy crap!!

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:54 pm

I think the nam is on crack. No other model is showing anything like this.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:55 pm

hyde345 wrote:I think the nam is on crack. No other model is showing anything like this.

Right?! I was like wth? Starts Tuesday and ends late at night about 11pm, appears NAM has a new totally different LP that pops off coast that gives us a storm a day later.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:01 pm

Actually 18z GFS does show the same thing but LP is a bit closer to coast and weaker and its mostly rain. HMMM, mugs did say this was going to be a headache to track, but this puts a totally different twist on the event.

by **heehaw453** Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:26 pm

NAM is out of its range at the end. However, low pressure will most likely develop off the NJ coast and intensify. Coastal NE could get clipped with that. Euro tries to show that too to a certain extent. Also, that coastal low could slow down and blow up more than currently modeled due to blocking.

We have the initial WAA thump as our shot to get several inches. If that fails, then it's going to be under 1" for most. Euro has been showing a lot of ice and I think storm continues to tick south. Not sold on those ice amounts Euro is showning ATTM.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:37 am

Holy smokes the euro caved to the nam. A minor icing event in Tuesday....what can I say this is very uncommon. North areas only places that see snow and very little at that. Euro no longer shows icing much over 0.25 which still is not good but on a ice level is not going to cause the chaos 0.5 to 1 inch would. How did the models screw this up so bad? Onto next.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:40 am

heehaw453 wrote:NAM is out of its range at the end. However, low pressure will most likely develop off the NJ coast and intensify. Coastal NE could get clipped with that. Euro tries to show that too to a certain extent. Also, that coastal low could slow down and blow up more than currently modeled due to blocking.

We have the initial WAA thump as our shot to get several inches. If that fails, then it's going to be under 1" for most. Euro has been showing a lot of ice and I think storm continues to tick south. Not sold on those ice amounts Euro is showning ATTM.

and you were 100% correct I knew a crazy ice storm wouldn't happen. And it looks like we do miss out on that WAA so it'll be under a inch. Mugs won't be happy to see these changes.

by **billg315** Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:09 am

Right now across North Jersey I think the bigger story with this system may be ice than snow. While it looks to start as snow Monday midday, I doubt we’ll see more than a couple inches before it turns to sleet/frz rain. But temps really struggle on some models to get much above freezing even after upper levels warm so Monday into Tuesday icing is a concern. Sometimes a little ice is a bigger deal than a lot of snow.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:12 am

billg315 wrote:Right now across North Jersey I think the bigger story with this system may be ice than snow. While it looks to start as snow Monday midday, I doubt we’ll see more than a couple inches before it turns to sleet/frz rain. But temps really struggle on some models to get much above freezing even after upper levels warm so Monday into Tuesday icing is a concern. Sometimes a little ice is a bigger deal than a lot of snow.

but did you see the over night runs? This comes in on Tuesday now and exits late Tuesday night Monday is not really going to be much if anything from that waa or are you not buying the new runs?

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:28 am

WAA seems to be much less impressive than what Euro said yesterday. Not expecting more than 1-2" of snow with this for most of us.

Surface temps will be slow to rise above freezing. This as billg said is the main threat. That being said they hover close enough such that prodigious ice is much harder to accrete. In the LHV and NW NJ though upper 20's could make a huge difference on accretion. I would most concerned in those areas.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:09 am

First part on Monday stays south per the nam, Tuesday's part looks like a problem for our northern friends. Mugs, we're in the snow hole again if this verifies..

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Namcon10

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Namcon11

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:10 am

SE PA and SW NJ will see a decent 1-3" accumulation with snow moving in late tonight thru early tomorrow morning. Some of this banding will try to spread into central parts of NJ, but it is modeled to fizzle out during the mid to late afternoon.

The main event moved to Tuesday morning where significant icing is forecasted in NW NJ into SNY. Another snowstorm is likely for Mikey in Albany and across Upstate NY.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Capture

These are daunting numbers on the GFS and they are supported by the NAM too.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 2 Capture

My official forecast is a C-1" of snow thru CNJ/SNJ/NNJ/NYC Metro and .10"-.30" of ice for NW NJ and SNY. Snow will turn to rain for pretty much everyone except it will be freeing rain for the aforementioned areas.

by **jimv45** Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:36 am

I am about an hour from Mike expecting mostly snow here in Saugerties. Hope no ice. Some of those ice predictions are scary to my south hope snow or rain for those folks.

by **hyde345** Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:15 am

jimv45 wrote:I am about an hour from Mike expecting mostly snow here in Saugerties. Hope no ice. Some of those ice predictions are scary to my south hope snow or rain for those folks.

Jim, you are likely to see sleet and ZR also especially on Tuesday as areas south of Albany will see some mixing. Hopefully you can get an inch or 2 of snow also in beginning and when low tracks east and precip turns back to snow. It's gonna be a mess for me.

by **hyde345** Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:24 am

Jim, 3k nam looks pretty good for you as far as precip type. It looks likes snow/sleet mix but you should get a few inches of snow by the time it ends and hopefully very little ZR.

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