January 2020 Observations and Discussion
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HectorO
bobjohnsonforthehall
oldtimer
dsix85
Scullybutcher
SENJsnowman
CPcantmeasuresnow
nutleyblizzard
brownie
Grselig
Vinnydula
Frank_Wx
dkodgis
jmanley32
hyde345
aiannone
sroc4
algae888
heehaw453
billg315
docstox12
amugs
frank 638
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
29 posters
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January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Happy New Year! The pattern really sucks right now, thankful for a decent day tomorrow for my annual cousins pub crawl in NYC. Not often we have 38* at midnight in January!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Happy New Year!…..38* real feel 26 ...let's start off the decade..with a snowstorm! Fingers crossed one happens soon!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Happy healthy new year to you and your family may 2020 bring cold and snowy conditions for us snow lovers
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
35* and flurries!!! Great sign for 2020 and the decade!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Driving back from the Thayer Hotel in historic West Point where my wife and I spent New Years Eve and Night, cloudy, windy flurries, 36 degrees.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Cloudy 38*. Had some flurries earlier.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
36 high today. Had flurries too. I've had much worse starts to January.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Sunday morning is a nice hit on the Euro especially for a Long Island the trend has been South and colder
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
4 to 6 in for New York City proper 6 to 10 in Suffolk County
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
algae888 wrote:Sunday morning is a nice hit on the Euro especially for a Long Island the trend has been South and colder
The trend has def been colder overall. The euro soln overnight is def overdone regarding snow totals for the coastal plain as surface temps appear to hover just above freezing but if 500mb was to shake out verbatim to what the 00z Euro showed some accumulation in and around the coastal plain would be possible.
Follow the northern energy on the GIF below as it digs into the back side of the southern mean trough. The key is as it does so it generates a cutoff Low in the perfect location just south and east of LI, which in turns generates a rapidly deepening LP on the surface which leads to a deformation band that thumps over the area.
The GFS also evelops the rapidly deepening LP and deformation band; however, too far to our NE to affect our area in a significant way. As the S/R hi es models begin to come into range today we will see how this plays out. def need to temper expectations as things have to come together baby bear...aka just right. Will a deformation band develop, and will some of us be under it? We'll see.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
6z euro even better than 00z
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Nice to have something to track again! It’s been a while. 12z Nam looks to be coming in south again
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
25* for my low this morning.
Looks like we maybe threading the needle on this one.
Busy 1st day back at school - more tonight to write!!
Looks like we maybe threading the needle on this one.
Busy 1st day back at school - more tonight to write!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
12z GFS and NAM didn't do much to get me excited. At least it looks to turn colder for a few days after the rain Saturday regardless of whether anything develops Sunday morning.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I sure want to believe the 06Z Euro, but to Billg's point there isn't much agreement for that among guidance. I don't trust the NAM at this range, but nothing really gets the low to a 982 inside the BM.
I think there will be a storm and it will intensify, but not as quickly and deeply as the recent Euro runs suggests. That makes all the difference to what we get.
I'll wait until tomorrow runs on Euro before getting too pessimistic on this though. As I noted in the LR, the threat on 1/8 may be a much simpler way to get some snow around here. Keep on eye on that one too.
I think there will be a storm and it will intensify, but not as quickly and deeply as the recent Euro runs suggests. That makes all the difference to what we get.
I'll wait until tomorrow runs on Euro before getting too pessimistic on this though. As I noted in the LR, the threat on 1/8 may be a much simpler way to get some snow around here. Keep on eye on that one too.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I too would seriously temper expectations on this one. Even if the euro crushes us on today's run I'm not buying it until I see some agreement.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
12Z Euro shows bupkis regarding snow as the storm develops too far away to cause much interest even in SNE. A very radical change in just 6 hours.
Still should watch this though as it's close enough to have last minute shifts.
Still should watch this though as it's close enough to have last minute shifts.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro shows bupkis regarding snow as the storm develops too far away to cause much interest even in SNE. A very radical change in just 6 hours.
Still should watch this though as it's close enough to have last minute shifts.
And 500 never really closes off.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I'd say the fat lady is clearing her throat and getting ready to sing as far as this weekend's system. I think the only hope we have for snow the next 2 weeks is around the 8th.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Couldnt say I didnt see that one coming. Havent you guys learned by now that the models are almost always wrong? At least this year they have been terrible.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:Couldnt say I didnt see that one coming. Havent you guys learned by now that the models are almost always wrong? At least this year they have been terrible.
Really jman? Almost always wrong? Just because you are frustrated with this beginning to winter, doesn't mean that the problem is the models. Have there been challenges? Absolutely. Has the pattern helped? No. How many times have the models been right? And how many times have we said on here the MODELS ARE FOR GUIDANCE? I think you need a time out, that was really not a cool thing to say to the members on this board, in essence calling us stupid.
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Not how I meant it at all, I apologize if it came across that way, honestly I am not frustrated at all but it seems like we always get excited over storms (understood) but honestly I find that more times than not we are let down. Now I get that thats a part of tracking but it appears maybe we should not track everything, just my thoughts, not aimed anyone and I never called anyone stupid, if anything you guys have as you have stated to me many times not to look at the surface or take models verbatim.Dunnzoo wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Couldnt say I didnt see that one coming. Havent you guys learned by now that the models are almost always wrong? At least this year they have been terrible.
Really jman? Almost always wrong? Just because you are frustrated with this beginning to winter, doesn't mean that the problem is the models. Have there been challenges? Absolutely. Has the pattern helped? No. How many times have the models been right? And how many times have we said on here the MODELS ARE FOR GUIDANCE? I think you need a time out, that was really not a cool thing to say to the members on this board, in essence calling us stupid.
I only check in from time to time since the ice storm because well frankly something just tells me this is going to be a uneventful year, I have heard on here some very not so ood trends on the LR, yes it goes back and forth but I need consistency as we all do in models and LR guidance. I am just hoping to check in one day and see that we are 90% chance getting a snowstorm for all. That is all i'll take my time out now. LOL
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
500 level is NG and the needle threading is done for this. The pattern was not conducive to an accumulating snowstorm but we needed a perfect alignment which the EURO was showing for a few runs.
We have to see what next week brings. After that close the shades for a couple of weeks as the MJO convection goes strong over NW Aussie land and drives the phase 4 and 5 down our throats with the SE Ridge. More to write in LR thread.
We have to see what next week brings. After that close the shades for a couple of weeks as the MJO convection goes strong over NW Aussie land and drives the phase 4 and 5 down our throats with the SE Ridge. More to write in LR thread.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
amugs wrote:500 level is NG and the needle threading is done for this. The pattern was not conducive to an accumulating snowstorm but we needed a perfect alignment which the EURO was showing for a few runs.
We have to see what next week brings. After that close the shades for a couple of weeks as the MJO convection goes strong over NW Aussie land and drives the phase 4 and 5 down our throats with the SE Ridge. More to write in LR thread.
Thanks Mugs for the update...a little disappointing, but making lemonade out of lemons...getting things done around house..mild weather allows me to clean out the attic..a project that should have been done a while ago..so here's to really cold and snowy weather following our warm spell.
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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