NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion

+25
HectorO
bobjohnsonforthehall
oldtimer
dsix85
Scullybutcher
SENJsnowman
CPcantmeasuresnow
nutleyblizzard
brownie
Grselig
Vinnydula
Frank_Wx
dkodgis
jmanley32
hyde345
aiannone
sroc4
algae888
heehaw453
billg315
docstox12
amugs
frank 638
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
29 posters

Page 2 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:29 pm

Baby bear. Language I understand.

Regarding the snow: soon come man
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1568
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:58 am

surprise surprise..a gray gloomy morning, currently surprise again...raining and 44*
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3013
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:50 am

If it’s not going to snow at least let it be sunny and 50

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20049
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:38 pm

can you guess??? gloomy foggy day currently 51* I agree with Frank if its going to be warm at least be sunny!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3013
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:59 pm

I’m at West Point super foggy
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1568
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:08 pm

18z NAM for Tuesday night
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 F4693e10
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4265
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Vinnydula Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:36 pm

Light snow with some mix
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 772
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:58 pm

0z CMC similar to the NAM
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 60394a10
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4265
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:08 am

4 am dog run and it’s 33 with a stiff wind. About 18 mph and it’s steady. Loud enough to awaken me. Surprisingly loud and steady
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1568
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:34 am

0Z Euro was more robust and looks pretty darned similar to latest NAM.  I think especially for those NW of 95 this can render some white gold that sticks. Surface temps will be marginal the closer to coast one is.

Still not a lock at this range, but encouraging nonetheless. It will depend on how several separate short waves interact with one another and expect changes on model solutions in next 24 hours.

This is 06Z NAM

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam10

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam211


0Z Euro

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Euro11

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:54 am

@heehaw453 wrote:0Z Euro was more robust and looks pretty darned similar to latest NAM.  I think especially for those NW of 95 this can render some white gold that sticks. Surface temps will be marginal the closer to coast one is.

Still not a lock at this range, but encouraging nonetheless.  It will depend on how several separate short waves interact with one another and expect changes on model solutions in next 24 hours.

This is 06Z NAM

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam10

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam211

0Z Euro

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Euro11

Important to point out is that on all models, I’ll show euro gfs and Nam, there is a negative tilted shortwave trough.  The timing and degree of tilt is still somewhat varying with said trough. As the trough hits the coast there will be a LP developing and strengthening and Atlantic moisture to work with. The exact track and degree of strengthing will be critical.   This is an important factor and is what gives the threat of snow some legs but by no means is this an ideal set up here. This all has to be perfect since the pattern to the east and the pattern to the west is anything but ideal here. There is a weak western ridge that is even making this interesting.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 E71a9b10
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Ad27f710
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 5de98d10



There are some differences in exact placement and strength of the shortwave energy. As a result the thermal profiles are different as well as where the surface low tracks exactly and consequently whee the heavier precip falls. As heehaw points out the surface temps are marginal at best along the coast so more than likely the track will needs to be on the SE side of guidance track wise and it would need to thump in order to accumulate along the coast. In order for our NW peeps to get some the track will need to be tucked in more, but this would be at the expense of the coastal plain remaining warmer.  

In a pattern that is absolutely horrendous take this as a gift, don’t expect much, and you get what you get(or don’t get, and you don’t get upset.

We track!!!  What a Face

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6958
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:52 am

Nice write up sroc.  Latest 12Z NAM continues the idea of the surface low strengthening.  How quickly can it ramp up and how tucked is it to the coast. This look here would be good for LI and coastal NJ.

If i were to bet I'd say a bit more tucked than this representation for the aforementioned SE ridge and the tilt of the trough.  Much better handle on this tomorrow i think.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam50013

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:01 am

SUN...THERE IS SUN...currently 37* winds coming out of the north at 16 mph (gusts in the 20's)real feel 30*..


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:22 am; edited 1 time in total
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3013
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:02 am

Thank you for the updates Heehaw and Sroc!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3013
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:17 pm

Wind is whipping out there. 40* with a wind chill of 28*. Winds at 18 mph, 33 mph gusts.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3681
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:27 pm

Latest update has the consensus take the system track too far SE. just a scrape with the precip shield to The coast. Again no real expectations here but some room to wobble back north

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6958
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:56 pm

18z NAM caved. OTS. GFS agrees. Still a little time to turn around but not likely given the progressive flow
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4265
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:47 pm

Was hoping the short wave in southern Quebec was going to get out of the way of the developing coastal system. But looks like it won't and therefore the coastal low gets shunted off the coast and remains weak. I'll throw in the towel on this threat tomorrow if things continue like this.

Could have been a nice moderate event for some. Que sera, sera.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Grselig Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:27 pm

This sadly could be a hurrah. My NWS forecast for tonight.

Light snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.. Sad
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1332
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:39 pm

0z Nam came back a little west. So close!
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Ad6bbf10
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Bfd92310
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4265
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:51 am

IT'S SNOWING!!! Everything is covered except the road.wow did not expect this!! Too excited to go back to sleep
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3013
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:53 am

STILL SNOWING 1/2 INCH SO FAR
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3013
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:28 am

LOL!  The "event" for me was tonight.  1" OTG and 29 degrees, so it stuck to everything.  No shutout for January and judging by the radar, CPK should be at least getting an 1" since they're at 32!  Well on the way to beating last January.

Too funny.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:28 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:STILL SNOWING 1/2 INCH SO FAR

nice!

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:55 am

Coating of snow Mainly on car tops and grass

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2361
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 38
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum