January 2020 Observations and Discussion
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HectorO
bobjohnsonforthehall
oldtimer
dsix85
Scullybutcher
SENJsnowman
CPcantmeasuresnow
nutleyblizzard
brownie
Grselig
Vinnydula
Frank_Wx
dkodgis
jmanley32
hyde345
aiannone
sroc4
algae888
heehaw453
billg315
docstox12
amugs
frank 638
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
29 posters
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
weatherwatchermom wrote:STILL SNOWING 1/2 INCH SO FAR
nice!
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Coating of snow Mainly on car tops and grass
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Light snow, 28 degrees, 1 inch OTG.Road snow covered.Nice to see it white again.
Looks like we torch for Saturday, NWS saying 60 degrees here.
Looks like we torch for Saturday, NWS saying 60 degrees here.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
1/2” on my deck this morning. Very pretty!
brownie- Posts : 397
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Same here, Doc. About an inch. I'm a do-bee again. Last night the wind was biting and the cold could be felt. The wind is still 13 mph now and 28 degrees.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
1/2 inch on colder surfaces. At least I avoided the January shutout. Hoping for a westward trend with the next event on Tuesday night.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Happy birthday Janet!!! Hope you have a great day
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Lookout for another burst of snow tomorrow afternoon, especially for NYC S&E. Possibly up to 2 inches in some spots
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
0.8 inches overnight, bringing the seasonal total to 15.6
At least I won't live to see the first snow less January in recorded history.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Dunnzoo wrote:.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY JANET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Talk about a gradient pattern jesus!! IF GFS is right we could have a icy conditions 75 miles N and NW of NYC whilst NYC sits at 60* and rains.
NE Ice Storm potential part 2
Hell of a way to run a torch!!
Need that 1039 HP to nose a bit more and we may get a cold air drain for some mix in the northern region of our board.
NE Ice Storm potential part 2
Hell of a way to run a torch!!
Need that 1039 HP to nose a bit more and we may get a cold air drain for some mix in the northern region of our board.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Happy birthday, Janet.
Black is back.
Snow has melted on blacktop
Black is back.
Snow has melted on blacktop
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
This is pretty wild for you weather lovers look at this gradient
19* in Albany region
63* in NYC
IF TRUE of course
19* in Albany region
63* in NYC
IF TRUE of course
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Woke up to 32* with a coating to 1/2” of snow on colder surfaces this morning. Not a big deal but made the landscape look nice and more wintry at least.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
amugs wrote:This is pretty wild for you weather lovers look at this gradient
19* in Albany region
63* in NYC
IF TRUE of course
The northern most extent of the warmth vacillates from run to run. It could very well be in the upper 40's in NYC instead of the 60's models are showing. I've seen too many times models over do the warmth with respect to duration and temperatures.
My guess is 60's make it to Mason Dixon Line and then cools off from there.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Dunnzoo wrote:.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!
Happy Birthday!
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Regarding tomorrow night's event. Guidance seems to tuck the surface low closer to the coast. The flow being progressive the low gets pushed ENE pretty quickly.
However, the trough is somewhat negative. I believe you'd get moisture thrown back a bit further NW than what this depicts. Again, surface temps will be the biggest issue for the coast.
However, the trough is somewhat negative. I believe you'd get moisture thrown back a bit further NW than what this depicts. Again, surface temps will be the biggest issue for the coast.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Basically all the models seem to be shunting the precipitation East after hour 36 due to the shortwave over the Great Lakes acting as a kicker,all the models except for the UK which tries to phase that short-wave in and gives a nice hit from the city east. Not many times you see a benchmark track and no defamation band on the western sideheehaw453 wrote:Regarding tomorrow night's event. Guidance seems to tuck the surface low closer to the coast. The flow being progressive the low gets pushed ENE pretty quickly.
However, the trough is somewhat negative. I believe you'd get moisture thrown back a bit further NW than what this depicts. Again, surface temps will be the biggest issue for the coast.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Models definitely showing more of a DCA-BWI special (2-4") on this if their surface temps cooperate. The low is just strung out until it hits the coast and then organizes and races ENE. Any kind of slowing the atmospheric flow and this would be really interesting. My guess is c-1" for most taking into account surface temps and the precip field.
No blocking or 50/50 to help us out. Even Atlantic ridge is far out.
That's really tucked. Each successive run low is a bit more tucked and still 30 hours out. Still races ENE, but the higher that low gets up the coast the more precip is thrown back NW. Maybe it winds up going over Cape May when this solution finally settles on the truth.
18Z GFS
No blocking or 50/50 to help us out. Even Atlantic ridge is far out.
That's really tucked. Each successive run low is a bit more tucked and still 30 hours out. Still races ENE, but the higher that low gets up the coast the more precip is thrown back NW. Maybe it winds up going over Cape May when this solution finally settles on the truth.
18Z GFS
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Nam coming more NW this run...
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam coming more NW this run...
That's worth repeating
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
SREFS for fun here tomorrow night??
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
The 6z nam just came Way West 2 to 4 in for the city and Long Island
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
The trend has been been clear with the NAM and other guidance. Push the precip a tick further north with each successive run. I would call 2-4" IMBY a HUGE win, but thinking more like 1-3" mostly on colder surfaces.
Precip is mostly after dark and that makes a sig difference even in January on a very marginal surface.
The green blob touches the coast line almost and most likely where surface low will be.
Precip is mostly after dark and that makes a sig difference even in January on a very marginal surface.
The green blob touches the coast line almost and most likely where surface low will be.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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