January 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:19 am

Light snow, 28 degrees, 1 inch OTG.Road snow covered.Nice to see it white again.

Looks like we torch for Saturday, NWS saying 60 degrees here.
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Post by brownie on Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:49 am

1/2” on my deck this morning.  Very pretty!

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:29 am

Same here, Doc. About an inch. I'm a do-bee again. Last night the wind was biting and the cold could be felt. The wind is still 13 mph now and 28 degrees.
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:48 am

SNOW!!!
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 20200110
Saturday temps and Sunday look to be in the 50 range Sat and Sun in the high 50's with....rain.

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:02 am

1/2 inch on colder surfaces. At least I avoided the January shutout. Hoping for a westward trend with the next event on Tuesday night.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:09 am

.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:21 am

Happy birthday Janet!!! Hope you have a great day

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:22 am

Lookout for another burst of snow tomorrow afternoon, especially for NYC S&E. Possibly up to 2 inches in some spots

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:00 am



0.8 inches overnight, bringing the seasonal total to 15.6

At least I won't live to see the first snow less January in recorded history.
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:18 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JANET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:22 am

Talk about a gradient pattern jesus!! IF GFS is right we could have a icy conditions 75 miles N and NW of NYC whilst NYC sits at 60* and rains.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 71878CCF-EDE5-4236-9A7A-B1CD86A52805.jpeg.e871f24d440162f72f905d5a3b2b96ee

NE Ice Storm potential part 2
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25

Hell of a way to run a torch!!
Need that 1039 HP to nose a bit more and we may get a cold air drain for some mix in the northern region of our board.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:23 am

Happy birthday, Janet.

Black is back.

Snow has melted on blacktop
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:26 am

This is pretty wild for you weather lovers look at this gradient
19* in Albany region
63* in NYC

IF TRUE of course
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_neus_26

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:44 am

Woke up to 32* with a coating to 1/2” of snow on colder surfaces this morning. Not a big deal but made the landscape look nice and more wintry at least.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:01 am

@amugs wrote:This is pretty wild for you weather lovers look at this gradient
19* in Albany region
63* in NYC

IF TRUE of course
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_neus_26

The northern most extent of the warmth vacillates from run to run. It could very well be in the upper 40's in NYC instead of the 60's models are showing. I've seen too many times models over do the warmth with respect to duration and temperatures.

My guess is 60's make it to Mason Dixon Line and then cools off from there.

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:02 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!

Happy Birthday!

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:48 am

Regarding tomorrow night's event.  Guidance seems to tuck the surface low closer to the coast.  The flow being progressive the low gets pushed ENE pretty quickly.  

However, the trough is somewhat negative.  I believe you'd get moisture thrown back a bit further NW than what this depicts.  Again, surface temps will be the biggest issue for the coast.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs10

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Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:12 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Regarding tomorrow night's event.  Guidance seems to tuck the surface low closer to the coast.  The flow being progressive the low gets pushed ENE pretty quickly.  

However, the trough is somewhat negative.  I believe you'd get moisture thrown back a bit further NW than what this depicts.  Again, surface temps will be the biggest issue for the coast.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs10
Basically all the models seem to be shunting the precipitation East after hour 36 due to the shortwave over the Great Lakes acting as a kicker,all the models except for the UK which tries to phase that short-wave in and gives a nice hit from the city east. Not many times you see a benchmark track and no defamation band on the western side
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:25 pm

Models definitely showing more of a DCA-BWI special (2-4") on this if their surface temps cooperate.  The low is just strung out until it hits the coast and then organizes and races ENE.  Any kind of slowing the atmospheric flow and this would be really interesting.  My guess is c-1" for most taking into account surface temps and the precip field.

No blocking or 50/50 to help us out.  Even Atlantic ridge is far out.

That's really tucked.  Each successive run low is a bit more tucked and still 30 hours out.  Still races ENE, but the higher that low gets up the coast the more precip is thrown back NW. Maybe it winds up going over Cape May when this solution finally settles on the truth.

18Z GFS
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs11

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Temps16

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:01 pm

Nam coming more NW this run...
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:01 pm

Nam coming more NW this run...
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:20 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam coming more NW this run...

That's worth repeating
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:49 pm

SREFS for fun here tomorrow night??
January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 3E718BD9-30E1-426C-8B86-52FD17B5E279.thumb.gif.a95409a5cc7c2bb15ac088f49a4e3b13

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:11 am

The 6z nam just came Way West 2 to 4 in for the city and Long Island
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:11 am

The trend has been been clear with the NAM and other guidance.  Push the precip a tick further north with each successive run. I would call 2-4" IMBY a HUGE win, but thinking more like 1-3" mostly on colder surfaces.

Precip is mostly after dark and that makes a sig difference even in January on a very marginal surface.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nam11


The green blob touches the coast line almost and most likely where surface low will be.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Low10

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