March 2020 Observations and Discussion

dkodgis wrote:30 degrees this morning and it spritzed a bit, leaving some acne-type ice spots all over the deck. Nothing major but enough I would not sneer at it. And as I get ready to hit send, it looks like flurries.  March wants to bust a move, I swear. It looks like it is going to rain too.  How exciting.

I wish I could agree for us poor souls 75 miles or so south of you, but I can’t.  It was 63 degrees as drove home from work today.  I had the sunroof open.  I find myself checking every day to see if my astilbe have started to poke their heads out of the ground.  Not yet, and I’m thinking it’s too early....but maybe not too early this year.

Euro is trying to get me to double digit snowfall this season.   Come'n Euro, let's do this!  

Too bad I know the 3" NAM shows is most far fetched IMBY.  However, we are getting down to the final stretch where even the models will stop showing digital snow soon

Inverted trough signal is pretty strong.  NAM is really showing it.  

2 things:
1) Exactly where the moisture sets up is very difficult to know with these things.
2) Surface temps are not ideal.

That said EPA, NW NJ and perhaps LHV could be in store for an inch or two if it comes down hard enough.

The difference between what we'll get (not much) and a full blown 1'+ blizzard is really close on the GFS.  I thought this would trend worse at the h5, but quite the opposite.  

If that shortwave just slowed down a hair or put back another 75-100 miles south west WoW. Synoptically this is pretty.  It just starts its rapid maturation process a hair too late and it's not wonder the Euro Ensembles were such a split camp a few days ago.

I think the I-81 corridor in PA is getting several inches from the IVT.  Hazleton and Scranton should see 1-3" (local higher amounts dependent on elevation) from this.  Poconos too i could see getting several inches.  

Maybe a bit overdone, but i like the area it targets.

Latest NAM is C-1" for many. Yeah, i think it's possible on colder surfaces outside of urban areas. The mid-levels will be very cold due to rapidly intensifying low pressure off the coast and if that IVT can give us enough moisture it'll coat the grass for sure. It's very hard to predict where the best moisture will setup. But don't be surprised.

Every time I look at this I cannot believe how close this is to a big dog event. Especially for Central/Eastern LI and Cape Cod. It's unreal a matter of 75-100 miles or so of offshore shortwave placement.

Futility will not be denied!

Genesis of a beast.  

Look at these cloud tops.  That's what i call rising air.  Very intense storm brewing.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Monday looks amazing bring on Spring

Meet you at Jenks

Hey Frank maybe we can all gather at Jenkinson's this summer! I try to get down there every year with my wife Rose. That way we can finally meet everyone.

I would be up for that!

Maybe we can continue that discussion in banter.

As for today, the sun is bright and it is a lovely, cloudless day here (as observed through my windows).  Unfortunately I am trapped inside working so can’t really enjoy it.  I stuck my head outside and it is warm-ish, but not so warm that I would go out without a jacket over my sweatshirt.  It is breezy and feels quite dry.