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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by frank 638 on Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:53 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Hi all,

Larry Cosgrove will be joining the Joe (Cioffi) and Joe (Rao) show tonight on Youtube at 7:30 pm. Just search for Joe Cioffi's channel. Larry will be talking about his winter outlook, will be interesting for sure!
i am def listening to this tonight hopefully we get a cold ⛄ ❄

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Post by jimv45 on Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:08 pm

Love that show, I am there every week for the show they have!!! Very interesting tonight hope he has a better outlook then Jim Witt had for this winter!

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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:31 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Love that show, I am there every week for the show they have!!! Very interesting tonight hope he has a better outlook then Jim Witt had for this winter!

Jim, did you watch? Not great news, but not too bad, thinks it will be a later winter, February-March. Not to hold our breath for much before then.

_________________
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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:22 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Love that show, I am there every week for the show they have!!! Very interesting tonight hope he has a better outlook then Jim Witt had for this winter!

Jim, did you watch? Not great news, but not too bad, thinks it will be a later winter, February-March. Not to hold our breath for much before then.
Yeah no thats not great news, models look very boring over next 16 days. Not expecting snow yet but even northern NY isn't really show anything. Is this our new norm of 2-4 inches of snow a year in NYC going forward? Would that not have a huge impact on the climate if that did in fact come true?
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:55 am

Yes Janet it was an interesting watch and a little better then Jim Witt forecast. When he told you about February being better I was somewhat relieved.I rather have front loaded winters but at this point I will take anything,let's hope he is right about February and March.

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:10 am

Here is earthlight’s (John Homenuk) forecast. Don’t shoot the messenger. Still waiting for Isotherm

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:58 am

Here is Larry's thoughts, sorry it's a little hard to read:

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 2 20201110

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:06 am

Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:04 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:19 pm

Isotherm's Winter Outlook is posted. Poor arctic z500 (AO+/NAO+/EPO+) with potentially some help from the Pacific (PNA+) this year. Anything would be better w.r.t. Pacific than the Pineapple Express that we've had for the past several years around here.

Theme seems to be this year go over on the temps and under on the snow and you'll do well.

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/date/2020/11

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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:26 pm

Looks like Larry is the outlier here...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by dkodgis on Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:07 pm

Isotherm #1.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:32 am

This is from Steve DiMartino a meteorologist that covers the area.

It's thoughtful analysis and yet another opinion.

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2020-to-february-2021/

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Post by HectorO on Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:45 am

@heehaw453 wrote:This is from Steve DiMartino a meteorologist that covers the area.

It's thoughtful analysis and yet another opinion.

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2020-to-february-2021/

Sounds like every winter here lol. Some below temp days, followed by some above temp days. Some snow, some ice, some rain lol.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:41 pm

@HectorO wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:This is from Steve DiMartino a meteorologist that covers the area.

It's thoughtful analysis and yet another opinion.

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2020-to-february-2021/

Sounds like every winter here lol. Some below temp days, followed by some above temp days. Some snow, some ice, some rain lol.

Last winter many LR forecasters were thinking that February would turn out to be the most favorable month for winter weather.  Turned out to be extremely hostile with record low snow for most of eastern seaboard.  This year many folks believe February will be the least favorable for winter weather, but I'll bet this February renders more snow than last February (easy to beat a trace).  And I'll bet this season overall is better w.r.t. to snowfall and that is just based on averages.  Temperatures though could easily be as warm or warmer than last year based on what we've being seeing recently.

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Post by Isotherm on Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:40 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.


Thanks for the kind words, Scott. Was going to post my outlook here today (I see someone posted it above). Can be read on my website:

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Also, note: earthlight/John and I don't collaborate on the winter outlooks (my outlooks are entirely my own viewpoints). Only one winter (2013-14) we collaborated.

Unfortunately, wish I could deliver better news, but this is where the data led me. My most significant disagreement with many of the forecasts out there involves the placement of the warm/cooler anomalies in the CONUS, and the timing of the colder/warmer periods. I target January for the best opportunity for cold/snow, rather than the consensus which seems to be December.

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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:11 pm

@Isotherm wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.


Thanks for the kind words, Scott. Was going to post my outlook here today (I see someone posted it above). Can be read on my website:

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Also, note: earthlight/John and I don't collaborate on the winter outlooks (my outlooks are entirely my own viewpoints). Only one winter (2013-14) we collaborated.

Unfortunately, wish I could deliver better news, but this is where the data led me. My most significant disagreement with many of the forecasts out there involves the placement of the warm/cooler anomalies in the CONUS, and the timing of the colder/warmer periods. I target January for the best opportunity for cold/snow, rather than the consensus which seems to be December.

Tom,
Thanks for posting it here and hopefully you'll both be right - Dec and Jan and then we thaw out in Feb and get on with spring!!! Always look forward to your write ups. Have my dictionary handy as always!!
Mugs

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis on Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:17 pm

If I were to say anything as a novice about long-term, I would not be able to peep because after wish-casting (which I try not to do), I don't know enough about the weather to say much. After some years here, I am getting the hang of it (seeing the same things coming up so I can discern). This board is a great learning opportunity; thanks, everyone, for sharing your expertise.
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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:34 pm

MJO says Phase 1-2 on a slow roller move GEFS
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 2 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member

Phase 2

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 2 Combined_image

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:11 pm

@Isotherm wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.


Thanks for the kind words, Scott. Was going to post my outlook here today (I see someone posted it above). Can be read on my website:

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Also, note: earthlight/John and I don't collaborate on the winter outlooks (my outlooks are entirely my own viewpoints). Only one winter (2013-14) we collaborated.

Unfortunately, wish I could deliver better news, but this is where the data led me. My most significant disagreement with many of the forecasts out there involves the placement of the warm/cooler anomalies in the CONUS, and the timing of the colder/warmer periods. I target January for the best opportunity for cold/snow, rather than the consensus which seems to be December.

Hey Tom. I hope now that your final thoughts are finalized and officially “out there” you’ll find some time to kick back and relax a bit. I know many years ago I remember you and John had some sort of collaboration but honestly I had no real clue to what extent. Anyway thank you as usual for your time and efforts right or wrong. Look forward to seeing how it all plays out.

Cheers

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by rb924119 on Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:03 am

Thank you, Tom, as always, for your incredible insight. Your work is always a fantastic and instructional read! I must say, though, that even though my much less experienced opinion is the same overall for this upcoming season, I hope we both end up 180° out of phase with reality come April 1st haha

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Post by frank 638 on Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:09 am

Tom thank you so much for your post about the upcoming winter outlook you did a amazing job. I Just hope We have one or two good Snow storms this year and let’s hope we have a white Christmas stay safe and thank you again

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Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:25 am

Thank you Tom for posting your long range winter forecast.At least yours has a glimmer of hope for January with a chance of normal to above normal snow.Even in the awful winter of '94-'95 we had an almost 12 inch snowstorm that February.Hope that happens this year.
My own seat of the pants feeling seeing the pattern set with warm out here (the last week) and snow and cold in the Central and North Central, was above normal temps here with below normal snow.
As always, lake effect areas and Northern New England do well no matter what.
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Post by algae888 on Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:28 am

Finally some winter weather headed our way next week real nice cold shot Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday temps in the 20s with the teens inland highs in the 30s with maybe some snow showers around. Mjo phase 8 1 and 2 will do that. Some Mets think the mjo will be predominantly in 1 2 and 3 this year as opposed to 4 5 and 6 the last few years. The eps weeklies are starting to look better as we head into December especially the middle part which signs of a negative nao and not a hostile Pacific. we shall see
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Post by Grselig on Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:54 pm

Iso, thank you for your insights, intelligence and hard work. Always appreciated. Glad you are safe!
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