Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

00z GEM/CANADIAN. Sweet dreams, all

rb924119 wrote:00z GEM/CANADIAN. Sweet dreams, all

What are we seeing?

rb924119 wrote:00z GEM/CANADIAN. Sweet dreams, all

Everyone???? You are a sick son of a bitch Ray. I woke up in a cold sweat

I'm probably a bit more excited about 12/30 and thereafter.  Many times a big event can be realized upon relaxation of an NAO block.  You can see the block relax in time and retrograde a bit more westward.  There will be a parade of short waves that cut underneath the block, so I'm not really buying any OP models showing cutting systems with that kind of block.  Which shortwave it is that is a threat remains to be seen, but I like the look later than sooner.

Moral of the story is 12/28 to 01/03 a wave is trying to pop near or off the coast in response to the blocking. It will deliver snow. To everyone? Not so sure. But we’ll find out soon enough!

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:00z GEM/CANADIAN. Sweet dreams, all

Everyone????  You are a sick son of a bitch Ray. I woke up in a cold sweat  

I thought we kept it PG on this forum, Scott? Lol but hey, it’s about time Long Island’s reign as Snow-Central came to an end :p

Last nights CMC. I'm guessing this is what Ray was referring to from last night. It's fun to dream, not happening though, I think the CMC was on crack for this run. Storm stalls and actually retrogrades. Pure fantasy stuff.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Last nights CMC. I'm guessing this is what Ray was referring to from last night. It's fun to dream, not happening though, I think the CMC was on crack for this run. Storm stalls and actually retrogrades. Pure fantasy stuff.

yup it was cool to see though.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:00z GEM/CANADIAN. Sweet dreams, all

Everyone????  You are a sick son of a bitch Ray. I woke up in a cold sweat  

I thought we kept it PG on this forum, Scott? Lol but hey, it’s about time Long Island’s reign as Snow-Central came to an end :p

Would love to get 12", text Scott while he's raining with 1.5" of slop. I feel like no one would believe me.

To soon to be analyzing an op model verbatim at this range, but what you see on the some of the Op models for the 12/28 window is a short wave cutting up to the Canadian/NY State border before transferring to the coast.  There is a very strong east based NAO block in place.  This ULL is probably not going to get that far north.  Anything close to Pittsburgh though and it's not going to work for the I95 and may not even work in the interior.  Kentucky or WV would be much better for this transfer.  I think the models right now are being a bit too aggressive on the push north based on the block.  Let's see if in next few days if there are some corrections.  

heehaw453 wrote:To soon to be analyzing an op model verbatim at this range, but what you see on the some of the Op models for the 12/28 window is a short wave cutting up to the Canadian/NY State border before transferring to the coast.  There is a very strong east based NAO block in place.  This ULL is probably not going to get that far north.  Anything close to Pittsburgh though and it's not going to work for the I95 and may not even work in the interior.  Kentucky or WV would be much better for this transfer.  I think the models right now are being a bit too aggressive on the push north based on the block.  Let's see if in next few days if there are some corrections.  

You’ve been ON FIRE with some of your recent posts, my dude, keep it up!! While I haven’t sat down and fully analyzed this, I pretty strongly agree at an early juncture, and am currently hypothesizing that the general hemispheric and tropical setup favors the corrections that you imply, which is why I’m very intrigued by this period as well. But, I’d argue that it’s just not Atlantic that’s working constructively for us here; it’s also the Pacific, and this gets back to my slight disagreement with @Frank_Wx ‘s earlier post about a “not so great” Pacific. One thing that’s caught my eye is the AMPLIFIED, yet PROGRESSIVE Pacific wave train. If you notice, we lose the true PNA ridge spike as our system begins reaching ~85°W longitude, BUT it’s the way in which it’s progged to break down that’s important. Unlike at the end of November/beginning of December, when we saw a firehose jet into the West Coast that was just blasting the tops off any attempt at western North American ridge amplification, and they kept rolling over along the Canadian/US border, this time that jet is retracted. So, instead of rolling the ridge tops over, they can maintain latitude, which is what we are seeing - as our PNA ridge is forced eastward, it also drives it toward Hudson Bay. This means that not only would we have a low-level high pretty well established in southeastern Canada (though yes, it would have Atlantic influence and be moderated), we would also have a truly Arctic high attacking with a fresh injection of truly cold air, which is something that we didn’t have last week. BIG DIFFERENCE. Combine that with the southward adjustments that I also believe will be favored, for the above (among other, additional reasons I’ve yet to fully explore), and I think the 00z CMC Op from last night is actually fairly plausible.

Regarding the 28th-29th wave, today’s GFS has a poorly placed High off the coast of New England. This leaves a path for the storm of interest to track well N&W. As stated by Heehaw, the block verbatim is also too east based. The upper air features of the Atlantic are there but unfavorably placed. Not to mention the absence of a PNA ridge.



It’s possible this High moves NW in time to allow a transfer of energy to the coast, but my guess is a late transfer and/or too warm of temperatures to bring meaningful snowfall to the region. Let’s see how this plays out it’s still very early. Regardless, the time frame beyond the 29th looks exciting. That said, important to remain cautiously optimistic. I’m excited and I made that evident in prior posts, but I have an uneasy feeling with the Pacific jet extension and the inability of the PNA or EPO to see sustained higher heights.

Yes. There is just too much going on right now for me to have a good or bad feeling before 12/30. Models won't have a good handle on this until probably Christmas. The blocks tend to wreak havoc on the models beyond 4 days. However, I think into January is more auspicious.

I'll also say this and it's not scientific. The special winters will find a way for us to get something at least light and possibly moderate in that 12/27-12/30 timeframe.

It'll be fun to track regardless.

Wow. That’s a lead time if I’ve ever seen one.

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. That’s a lead time if I’ve ever seen one.

I was go do a thread for Thurs storm or was go give it a shot.

Why bum everyone out by adding insult to injury and making a separate thread out of it.

Big wind and rain storm to wash away white Christmas on Christmas Eve. I’m pumped.

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. That’s a lead time if I’ve ever seen one.

don't see this anywhere nws doesn't even have it. But ya 48 hrs ahead that's a long time. Accuwx says that 60 to even as high as 80mph coastal areas is possible.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Why bum everyone out by adding insult to injury and making a separate thread out of it.

Bid wind and rain storm to wash away white Christmas on Christmas Eve. I’m pumped.

your sarcasm is so subtle jeeze.
alrighty then.....still a event nonetheless that could be pretty impactful but nvm. Thought we tracked all storms.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Why bum everyone out by adding insult to injury and making a separate thread out of it.

Bid wind and rain storm to wash away white Christmas on Christmas Eve. I’m pumped.

your sarcasm is so subtle jeeze.
alrighty then.....still a event nonetheless that could be pretty impactful but nvm. Thought we tracked all storms.

Also forgot to throw in, good chance everyone has no power Christmas Day. It just gets better and better.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Why bum everyone out by adding insult to injury and making a separate thread out of it.

Bid wind and rain storm to wash away white Christmas on Christmas Eve. I’m pumped.

your sarcasm is so subtle jeeze.
alrighty then.....still a event nonetheless that could be pretty impactful but nvm. Thought we tracked all storms.

Also forgot to throw in, good chance everyone has no power Christmas Day. It just gets better and better.

which is why for our guests or not often drop ins thought it would be prudent to do such. I dunno bout that and I hope not. That would certainly suck. It was more a thread of alert not like snowcitement.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. That’s a lead time if I’ve ever seen one.

don't see this anywhere nws doesn't even have it. But ya 48 hrs ahead that's a long time. Accuwx says that 60 to even as high as 80mph coastal areas is possible.

It’s not for your county (yet), Jman. It includes all of Long Island (incl. Queens & Brooklyn). Have a feeling this will expand though.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. That’s a lead time if I’ve ever seen one.

don't see this anywhere nws doesn't even have it. But ya 48 hrs ahead that's a long time. Accuwx says that 60 to even as high as 80mph coastal areas is possible.

It’s not for your county (yet), Jman. It includes all of Long Island (incl. Queens & Brooklyn). Have a feeling this will expand though.

still even those areas not showing on nws. Of course it's not lol. If euro and nam play out its go be really bad.

I look forward to this wind event being over so we can stop talking about it and move on to possible snow storms in the long range. Any new developments on post Christmas storms?

I agree, I created a thread for it for the few of us that want to discuss it. Now lets get to next week and this potential snow. Where do we stand?

Confidence is increasing that high latitude blocking will return in early January. The most recent EPS and GEFS suggest a 2σ ridge building over Greenland and the Davis Strait by 1/5, and ensembles suggest heightened chances of a very negative (-3 or lower) AO. Buckle up kids! pic.twitter.com/G5CIHkcms0

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) December 23, 2020

0z EPS mean 10mb height anomaly forecast for early January

pic.twitter.com/9SCyhO4iMA

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) December 23, 2020

Close the shades for 2 weeks enjoy the holidays with families and friends. The PAC is crap it will be cutter after cutter until / unless we get the Davis Strait block right now it's either too far east or too far south

We just can't buy a 50/50 low which would cause Confluence to our North and suppress storms high pressure just sits there for the next 10 days