Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

crippo84 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take.  Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.  

WE TRACK!!!!  

I am confused, this is 3 days out, wouldn't we have a good idea by now if somethere were go happen? I have not yet seen a surface run that gives us a big hit except maybe a post few pages back, is there something different about this particular possible event that makes it still interesting with no hit only 72 hrs out?

Have you read all the posts about all the different pieces of energy in the atmosphere and why with the pattern we're entering any solution may not be known until a couple days in advance?

Thank You Crippo. And Jon I’ll add that I didn’t write that this am. I highlighted a key piece of the write up for you. Come on Dude.

For the record I’m still not writing it off just yet.

sroc4 wrote:

crippo84 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take.  Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.  

WE TRACK!!!!  

I am confused, this is 3 days out, wouldn't we have a good idea by now if somethere were go happen? I have not yet seen a surface run that gives us a big hit except maybe a post few pages back, is there something different about this particular possible event that makes it still interesting with no hit only 72 hrs out?

Have you read all the posts about all the different pieces of energy in the atmosphere and why with the pattern we're entering any solution may not be known until a couple days in advance?

Thank You Crippo. And Jon I’ll add that I didn’t write that this am. I highlighted a key piece of the write up for you. Come on Dude.

For the record I’m still not writing it off just yet.

I been super busy so no not much time to read in depth but yeah I did see the many pieces but that seems abnormal by 3 days out usually we have a pretty darn good idea of whats go happen, so only time I can think of that we did not know to throw in towel or not was before I was on here I think was boxing Day blizzard, had no idea it had done a 180 and night b4 suddenly major storm. On the alternate side we had no idea the storm that must not be named gamve me almost no snow which everyone to the east got buried. So I guess I can see how there could be a surprise but if there is a storm no one including DOT will be prepared as news says sunny and nice.

I’ve seen enough to remove the snow threat on the 12th from the SCI. Unfortunately, the Pacific jet extension is killing our flow.



Next time frame to watch: 16th-20th

It’s going to be pretty dry for awhile...

Ouch...

We are going to lose blocking late month into February if this comes true. There is one PNA spike around the 19th. Brutal cold will also ensue through the 25th or so. That is likely our window (19th-25th).




Although PNA goes negative on the GEFS, you’re still getting a source of cold from the Arctic as the EPO also goes negative. If the NAO is still negative at this time then our chances for northern stream based storms are still on the table.

Not very encouraging, Frank. A lot of "ifs" in your forecast. Seems like the general consensus is that we have about a 5-6 day window at the end of  the month as per rb, isotherm, and Frank.

Always hear about blocking. We need blocking, there is no blocking etc. Now we have blocking, but it isn't doing anything positive. I know there is more to it than that, just frustrating.

Going back to the fall, a lot of long range forecasters predicted a back-ended winter, that we had to wait until late January/February to get the goods. I guess they were on to something.

Why has this "epic pattern" not produced snow?

Two factors: The -NAO has lead to suppression and kept the coldest air in the Europe. Meanwhile, the +EPO has flooded the US and Canada with warm maritime Pacific air

Late Jan, however, could be colder in the East if -EPO develops. pic.twitter.com/7MJRkioF5L

— Andrew Markowitz (@amarkowitzWX) January 11, 2021

Makes great sense. We could start to see models show clippers coming through next week. Need weekend energy to dig a bit to get some widespread snow.

I actually disagree with his characterization of the pattern. The -NAO is not in a suppressive state. It is actually conducive for east coast snowstorms. The underwhelming cold air mass has to do with the +EPO flooding the country with mild Pacific air, and also with the stratospheric warming that took place sending the SPV to the other side of the globe. If the SPV split, it would have sent a PV lobe into the lower latitudes of the Trop which would have resulted in extremely cold air entering the CONUS.

He is correct in saying a switch from +EPO to -EPO will enable a cross-polar flow to drive colder air into the east coast. By that point, I'm not so sure we'll have an active STJ like we do not but the polar jet may be favorable for clipper-like storms to affect us.

Frank_Wx wrote:I actually disagree with his characterization of the pattern. The -NAO is not in a suppressive state. It is actually conducive for east coast snowstorms. The underwhelming cold air mass has to do with the +EPO flooding the country with mild Pacific air, and also with the stratospheric warming that took place sending the SPV to the other side of the globe. If the SPV split, it would have sent a PV lobe into the lower latitudes of the Trop which would have resulted in extremely cold air entering the CONUS.

He is correct in saying a switch from +EPO to -EPO will enable a cross-polar flow to drive colder air into the east coast. By that point, I'm not so sure we'll have an active STJ like we do not but the polar jet may be favorable for clipper-like storms to affect us.

I agree with this. The PAC air caused by the +EPO air has caused many potential inches of snow to wiped off the table so far. But, even some northern stream only stuff as it gets colder (e.g., clippers) can blow up to something much bigger with the -NAO that tends to block the flow. Based on what I'm seeing now though it doesn't scream of big storm potential for the foreseeable future. I think just getting some snow OTG that sticks around would be a huge win. There's really no confidence ATTM on next time it snows around here.

Here is what we are waiting for Nice PNA/EPO couplet = cross polar flow (or is it an arctic?) with a Negative NAO West Block - the models will start to sniff this out so be patient and have hope n faith which I know not many have in these last few winters

amugs wrote:Here is what we are waiting for Nice PNA/EPO couplet = cross polar flow (or is it an arctic?) with a Negative NAO West Block - the models will start to sniff this out so be patient and have hope n faith which I know not many have in these last few winters

Verbatim, this is a fantastic pattern. It is not perfect, I would like to see a more poleward Pac ridge, but we do not need perfection in the middle of January to see it snow.

I stand by what I wrote in the scroll. The extreme high latitude blocking pattern is giving models a very difficult time. The background state of the future pattern (-EPO/-NAO) is conducive for snow. We have to be really patient and hope one of the hundred short waves coming out of the Pacific works in our favor. If we exit this pattern without seeing an inch of snow, I will shut this forum down I tell you!!!

January 18th-30th represents slightly above average snow potential
January 22nd-27th represents above average snow potential

Not sure what folks on here think of Joe Bastardi, but in his weekend update this week he was still very bullish on a cold and very active pattern for the Eastern U.S. starting sometime next week through early to mid-Feb. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, because while the Dec. 16 storm was nice, if that's the highlight of the winter it wasn't enough for me.

p.s. he also was very bullish on the possibility of an unusually snowy pattern in the United Kingdom for the UK members on this Forum.

besides getting my feet wet by watching twc in 92 I got to learn a few things from Bastardi some of his predictions (1/6/96 blizzard in n.y)were right on point so if he predict this keep a side eye on this

It coming folks and teh ENS are picking up on it, it will evolve.
As Frank has stated after mid month things may get jiggy and possibly extreme for some regions of the US. Even Rb said after Jan 20th he sees more implications of possibly wintry events.
The potential storms that I outlined -(2/3, 12,16,23) were squashed or shredded by the NAO and the PAC JET.
Lots of winter left and we have had many winters where we did not get started until mid to late Jan. Patience here as always.
JB has made some great calls in his day and missed on some as well but that the fun of predicting especially weather. He is a very intelligent meteorologist - read both his books.
Just a bit to far N!
Here the 16/17th storm - could be an appy for our Northern Posters

Some guidance including today's 12Z Euro shows a threat around 1/21.  SWFE kind of deal with a nice baroclinic zone to our south.  IMO with the blocking occurring that is a more plausible way to get some decent snow here without help from the PAC.  A weaker wave riding along the baroclinic zone can produce here quite nicely.

I'd really like to see some good faith snow from the -AO/-NAO fairly soon.

This is a Cross Polar Flow for sure

heehaw453 wrote:Some guidance including today's 12Z Euro shows a threat around 1/21.  SWFE kind of deal with a nice baroclinic zone to our south.  IMO with the blocking occurring that is a more plausible way to get some decent snow here without help from the PAC.  A weaker wave riding along the baroclinic zone can produce here quite nicely.

I'd really like to see some good faith snow from the -AO/-NAO fairly soon.

Def looks all nice.   HP to the noprth in great position as it approaches.  Very cold air mass in place.   Surface temps in upper 20's low 30's with dewpoints in mid twenties.  Mid levels -3 to -6*c.  Id say verbatim its probably a 12-15:1 ratio to whatever QPF fell.  With likely baroclinic enhancements to the totals models tend to miss.  




BUUUTTTT its 7-8 days out so......




We'll keep an eye on it. Im not trying to be a jerk. Just frustrated...me want snow!

amugs wrote:It coming folks and teh ENS are picking up on it, it will evolve.
As Frank has stated after mid month things may get jiggy and possibly extreme for some regions of the US. Even Rb said after Jan 20th he sees more implications of possibly wintry events.
The potential storms that I outlined -(2/3, 12,16,23) were squashed or shredded by the NAO and the PAC JET.
Lots of winter left and we have had many winters where we did not get started until mid to late Jan. Patience here as always.
JB has made some great calls in his day and missed on some as well but that the fun of predicting especially weather. He is a very intelligent meteorologist - read both his books.
Just a bit to far N!
Here the 16/17th storm - could be an appy for our Northern Posters

No offense, mugsy, but I never said that haha I said the 14th-16th threat would be the best chance at getting snow to the coast before we began to see an increasingly hostile pattern evolve (or the “better” pattern devolve, though I argued that it wasn’t really that much better, and that even the 14th-16th threat would most likely favor the interior (I-81 Corridor)) for coastal snow. My lack of posting should indicate that my feelings remain generally unchanged lol

In all fairness Rob did say the pattern will get better roughly the 20th on Hopefully I’m not overstepping my boundaries Rob And he did make this comment roughly 2 to about 2 1/2 weeks ago

Obviously at 7 days out lots can change but guidance is consistent on bringing the moisture far enough north. Not really seeing this getting suppressed based on what I've been seeing. The air will probably be plenty of cold at all levels to support snow at least to start.

A weak wave riding the baroclinic zone will give us best chance to stay snow and produce a moderate to possibly significant event.

An amplified storm will run the risk of further west track which will put us at risk for frozen other than snow. However, there still may be light/moderate front end snow in that scenario.

The upshot is there is a threat next week. Do not underestimate the -NAO in this scenario as well. Models often underappreciate its effects.

heehaw453 wrote:Obviously at 7 days out lots can change but guidance is consistent on bringing the moisture far enough north.  Not really seeing this getting suppressed based on what I've been seeing.  The air will probably be plenty of cold at all levels to support snow at least to start.  

A weak wave riding the baroclinic zone will give us best chance to stay snow and produce a moderate to possibly significant event.  

An amplified storm will run the risk of further west track which will put us at risk for frozen other than snow.  However, there still may be light/moderate front end snow in that scenario.

The upshot is there is a threat next week.  Do not underestimate the -NAO in this scenario as well.  Models often underappreciate its effects.

GFS seems to favor a couple opportunities for the setup you describe, one around the 23rd and another around the 26th. Still a ways out but I think it could at a minimum be hinting that this is the type of pattern that will set up once this colder air settles in middle of next week. We do often get locked into a certain storm track/pattern this time of year so it would make sense if we had a few opportunities for these types of waves in the coming weeks. I do get concerned with these that it's tightrope walk: too much cold air and we get suppression while the folks in Maryland and the Delmarva enjoy their snow, not enough cold air and we get a changeover to slop.

As shown in our paper: https://t.co/1MjGyAOGVF the risk of severe #winter weather is greatly increased when low to mid-troposphere Polar Cap geopotential Heights (PCHs) spike as predicted by GFS in late January. This is the period to watch in Northeast US, Europe & Northern Asia. pic.twitter.com/bjQchm87df

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 14, 2021

I am loving where this pattern is heading

Negative pna which enhances the ridge
Negative nao
Negative ao
Negative EPO which drives the cold into our area

after reading the above by the 1/22 period if we get a major snowstorm someone will say madonne and I'll sound the alarm

The block is so strong in the EPO ridge is so far West All the energy is digging into the deep South West and when it ejects out it's getting sheared apart By the very fast Pacific jet/northern stream. What horrendous runs by the models last night. A once in a decade negative NAO And we can't Get Any system to come close to us. We are probably going to have to wait until the nao relaxes a bit To get any kind of amplified system near us