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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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Post by adamfitz1969 Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:32 am

I find it incredulous that over the past 3 days on almost all models, we see massive improvements with this storm.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:59 am

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Post by phil155 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:31 am


Maybe it is just me not wanting to feel let down again after last year but I am not ready just yet to buy into the amounts the models are putting out.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:47 am

So far, so good, but a long way to go.Cautious optimism here.
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Post by Radz Sat Dec 12, 2020 7:34 am

I’m all in, as I said before we are due. We are within 4 days after today’s 12z runs, confidence is building as of now. Let it snow lol
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 12, 2020 7:38 am

@phil155 wrote:
 
Maybe it is just me not wanting to feel let down again after last year but I am not ready just yet to buy into the amounts the models are putting out.

Nope.  Def not just you Phil.  You are right to remain cautious, for a 4.5 day lead time a ton can change.  The event that pops to my mind in recent past was winter storm Juno in Jan 2015.  Many to my west probably just shuddered reading this.  That had prospects of 1-2' of snow in a fairly wide spread area; only to last minute, with the last 24-48hrs, see the modeling shift further and further east with the system.  Now I still ended up with I believe around 10" IMBY with that storm many to the west who thought they were going to see 1-2feet within 48-72 hrs of the storm ended with 1-2 inches at best.  So yeah you are def not alone Phil in feeling the need to remain cautious.  

"Maintain Cautious optimism" I suppose should be the phrase of the weekend.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Grselig Sat Dec 12, 2020 7:45 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@phil155 wrote:
 
Maybe it is just me not wanting to feel let down again after last year but I am not ready just yet to buy into the amounts the models are putting out.

Nope.  Def not just you Phil.  You are right to remain cautious, for a 4.5 day lead time a ton can change.  The event that pops to my mind in recent past was winter storm Juno in Jan 2015.  Many to my west probably just shuddered reading this.  That had prospects of 1-2' of snow in a fairly wide spread area; only to last minute, with the last 24-48hrs, see the modeling shift further and further east with the system.  Now I still ended up with I believe around 10" IMBY with that storm many to the west who thought they were going to see 1-2feet within 48-72 hrs of the storm ended with 1-2 inches at best.  So yeah you are def not alone Phil in feeling the need to remain cautious.  

"Maintain Cautious optimism" I suppose should be the phrase of the weekend.

Ha. Good point. Still scarred by that one 🤬🤬. Remember it well.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 12, 2020 7:46 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@phil155 wrote:
 
Maybe it is just me not wanting to feel let down again after last year but I am not ready just yet to buy into the amounts the models are putting out.

Nope.  Def not just you Phil.  You are right to remain cautious, for a 4.5 day lead time a ton can change.  The event that pops to my mind in recent past was winter storm Juno in Jan 2015.  Many to my west probably just shuddered reading this.  That had prospects of 1-2' of snow in a fairly wide spread area; only to last minute, with the last 24-48hrs, see the modeling shift further and further east with the system.  Now I still ended up with I believe around 10" IMBY with that storm many to the west who thought they were going to see 1-2feet within 48-72 hrs of the storm ended with 1-2 inches at best.  So yeah you are def not alone Phil in feeling the need to remain cautious.  

"Maintain Cautious optimism" I suppose should be the phrase of the weekend.

Juno. Please no talk of Juno. Still have nightmares on that storm.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:25 am

Right now the pieces are on the table and in the general area we want them to be in. That's all I care about at this point. Models this AM are trending more north. I don't put a bunch of stock in the run to run "totals" yet. The pieces aren't even fully sampled at this time. Just happy there is something very interesting to track. Will get more invested come Monday AM. Just enjoying it for what it is.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:54 am

My main focus is how Monday’s storm behaves. It will pretty much determine the outcome of Wednesday’s storm. We’re going to see models between today and Tuesday try to track the low over our area (meaning rain) and even out to sea. I will be shocked if the track doesn’t change at all between now and then.

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Post by mwilli Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:42 am

I've been on this site for the last 5 years and this is the most amped up I've been in awhile. Last year was nothing so let's bring it on..

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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:05 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@phil155 wrote:
 
Maybe it is just me not wanting to feel let down again after last year but I am not ready just yet to buy into the amounts the models are putting out.

Nope.  Def not just you Phil.  You are right to remain cautious, for a 4.5 day lead time a ton can change.  The event that pops to my mind in recent past was winter storm Juno in Jan 2015.  Many to my west probably just shuddered reading this.  That had prospects of 1-2' of snow in a fairly wide spread area; only to last minute, with the last 24-48hrs, see the modeling shift further and further east with the system.  Now I still ended up with I believe around 10" IMBY with that storm many to the west who thought they were going to see 1-2feet within 48-72 hrs of the storm ended with 1-2 inches at best.  So yeah you are def not alone Phil in feeling the need to remain cautious.  

"Maintain Cautious optimism" I suppose should be the phrase of the weekend.

Good point doc.
It's never in the bag until the day of the storm and you see a solid 8 plus hours of moderate to heavy snow on your radar.
Gotta say, though, after last winter, we are due for a major mean reversion event.
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Post by billg315 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:17 am

The thing that strikes me about this is how the models have, while changing in the details, not changed in the big picture for several days on this, which is to say, they have been steadfast that a coastal storm was going to hit mid-week and someone was going to get a lot of snow. That type of agreement has been rare in recent winters.
Different circumstances but it reminds me in March 1993 how about 6 or 7 days out the NWS began warning about the "Storm of the Century." It was a jolting experience when I first heard it on my NOAA Weatherradio, because it was the first time I remembered (having grown up in the relatively snow-less - in eastern PA - mid-80s to early 90s period), where they seemed so confident so far out that we were going to get a big snowstorm, and they stuck with it right up to the event.

The thing I like about this Wednesday storm set-up is the track. (In some ways similar to that 1993 storm). Looks like the Low forms deep in the south before tracking up along the coast. For my money those storms produce the best, with the least uncertainty. The big question now is, how tucked into the coast will this storm be when it gets as far north as the Delmarva and NJ because that will determine who may go over to sleet and freezing rain for a time mid-storm.

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:20 am

@billg315 wrote:The thing that strikes me about this is how the models have, while changing in the details, not changed in the big picture for several days on this, which is to say, they have been steadfast that a coastal storm was going to hit mid-week and someone was going to get a lot of snow. That type of agreement has been rare in recent winters.
Different circumstances but it reminds me in March 1993 how about 6 or 7 days out the NWS began warning about the "Storm of the Century." It was a jolting experience when I first heard it on my NOAA Weatherradio, because it was the first time I remembered (having grown up in the relatively snow-less - in eastern PA - mid-80s to early 90s period), where they seemed so confident so far out that we were going to get a big snowstorm, and they stuck with it right up to the event.

The thing I like about this Wednesday storm set-up is the track. (In some ways similar to that 1993 storm). Looks like the Low forms deep in the south before tracking up along the coast. For my money those storms produce the best, with the least uncertainty. The big question now is, how tucked into the coast will this storm be when it gets as far north as the Delmarva and NJ because that will determine who may go over to sleet and freezing rain for a time mid-storm.


Miller A or C type storm - no need for phasing and timing all southern jet running into a cold air mass - unlike Juno, Nemo and our last storm - excellent point. These are classing storms for us, Miller B's we need off the Va Capes or Delmarva (OC) to cash in

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:21 am

Morning GFS 6Z run
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 2 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1607752800-1608152400-1608217200-40

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Post by billg315 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:33 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:My main focus is how Monday’s storm behaves. It will pretty much determine the outcome of Wednesday’s storm. We’re going to see models between today and Tuesday try to track the low over our area (meaning rain) and even out to sea. I will be shocked if the track doesn’t change at all between now and then.

Ah you went there. lol. This is my big anxiety right now. I love the projected track of this Wednesday storm and the timing with the cold air coming in courtesy of the High Pressure building in Canada, but I'm still nervous due to Monday's storm and the fact that we never really get a good grip on storm #2 until storm #1 plays out. So there is a part of me that will remain nervous until the Monday storm has run its course.
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Post by billg315 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:46 am

The local media is now on board. Here has been the progression:
2 days ago: Chance of rain or snow showers Wednesday;
1 day ago: Watching the potential of a storm Wednesday with rain or snow.
Today: Possible blockbuster snowstorm next Wednesday.
Lets see how it wavers in the coming days. lol.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 12, 2020 11:14 am

Twc has me for wed 1 to 3 inches of snow and 6 to 12 for wed night we need this esp Christmas 🎄 is coming up my fingers are crossed

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 12, 2020 11:14 am

It just looks more and more with guidance that unless you are extreme SE coast of NJ Atlantic/Cape May counties Wednesday night is going to be special.

The -NAO coupled with the 50/50 low means business. Without that 50/50 the -NAO by itself probably couldn't pin that Quebec high pressure like what is being projected. The -NAO is not extreme, but the atmosphere is just plugged up with all those pieces in place. It's kind of classic looking...

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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:03 pm

Every global operational and ensembles are on board with a major winter event in our area. I can't recall this total consensus beyond 72 hours. It's happening. My biggest gripe with the models is we see so many differences between models even within 48 hours on most events but I don't see that this time. Who gets the most snow, where banding sets up, if any costal locations change over to sleet/rain is still unknown 4 days out but recent 12z runs just keep reinforcing the setup and the potential this storm has for most of the board.
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:07 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:It just looks more and more with guidance that unless you are extreme SE coast of NJ Atlantic/Cape May counties Wednesday night is going to be special.

The -NAO coupled with the 50/50 low means business.  Without that 50/50 the -NAO by itself probably couldn't pin that Quebec high pressure like what is being projected.  The -NAO is not extreme, but the atmosphere is just plugged up with all those pieces in place.  It's kind of classic looking...

A NAO block does wonder downstream ala most classic NESIS storms - Lindsay, 1888,1899,1913,1947, 1951, 1977,78,1982,1996, 2003, 2010,2011,2016 storms) - did I just say NESIS?? Someone shoot me with a tranquilizer!

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 2 1607731200-SyNdlDdpOCY

Stays Negative the whole time even slightly will help


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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:18 pm

The GFS is an absolute monster this run but it may be over amplifying the confluence a bit as it tends to do. If it is right however...
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:My main focus is how Monday’s storm behaves. It will pretty much determine the outcome of Wednesday’s storm. We’re going to see models between today and Tuesday try to track the low over our area (meaning rain) and even out to sea. I will be shocked if the track doesn’t change at all between now and then.

I have the same concerns, and fears.

I'd hate to trade 2-4 inches Monday for a possible foot plus on Wednesday.
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Post by Irish Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:37 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:The GFS is an absolute monster this run but it may be over amplifying the confluence a bit as it tends to do. If it is right however...

What's the GFS map showing?

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:37 pm

I’m never too excited until the UKIE’s on board.

Ladies & Gentlemen, I present to you...

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 2 E92f5510
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