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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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Post by Irish on Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:47 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I’m never too excited until the UKIE’s on board.

Ladies & Gentlemen, I present to you...

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 E92f5510

Man, that cutoff line is incredible. My area is sitting at 11.7 but then southern ocean county drops off and the southern point of NJ gets squat.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:53 pm

@Irish wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:The GFS is an absolute monster this run but it may be over amplifying the confluence a bit as it tends to do. If it is right however...

What's the GFS map showing?

A swath of 15-20 inches from Maryland through SE PA through central/north Jersey and eastern half of CT. I'm not paying too much attention run to run but that certainly caught my eye. Canadian is similar.
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Post by frank 638 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:58 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I’m never too excited until the UKIE’s on board.

Ladies & Gentlemen, I present to you...

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 E92f5510
I cannot stop looking at my phone but I will take it

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:31 pm

Just something observed today. More of a Miller A characteristic storm. They usually bode better for this latitude/longitude than the Miller B which definitely favor NE. Nothing is set in stone obviously at this range...

The consistency has been the ridge in PNA region, the 50/50 low and the pinned HP in Quebec. Those synoptically are solid so far...

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:36 pm

@phil155 wrote:
 
Maybe it is just me not wanting to feel let down again after last year but I am not ready just yet to buy into the amounts the models are putting out.
I believe this includes the monday 3-6 right? even so holy moly....
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:37 pm

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 Euro_510. EURO CRUSHER!!!
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:44 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I’m never too excited until the UKIE’s on board.

Ladies & Gentlemen, I present to you...

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 E92f5510
remember soul we dont wanna be in the busseye which we are here, lets hope that the whole board looks more like the Euro and GFS, I am rooting for this one and am just as anxious as others about Monday but will not let it get to me too much here as said cautious optimism.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:50 pm

Wow is all I can say on these snow maps, I know better than to take them verbatim but the steadfast and consistency and moreso the AGREEMENT this far out of having almost all the same areas and NYC and all around including Long Island could see 15-20+ inches by Thursday is incredible. I am leaning into the pool to go all in but waiting another day or two, and ugg please don't mention Juno...I remember how crazy that was we completely shutdown here and got like a inche I think, that sustinance or whatever its called killed us. And the news roasted all meterologists when it was def not their fault.
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Post by GreyBeard on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:53 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Just something observed today.  More of a Miller A characteristic storm.  They usually bode better for this latitude/longitude than the Miller B which definitely favor NE.  Nothing is set in stone obviously at this range...

The consistency has been the ridge in PNA region, the 50/50 low and the pinned HP in Quebec.  Those synoptically are solid so far...


Love those Miller A's. As you say, they bode better for our area. Basically a Noreaster, no? Used to see storms start out in the northwest, dive down into the gulf and pick up a ton of moisture, then track up the east coast and drop a bomb on us.

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Post by hyde345 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:57 pm

12z Euro with a SE shift that puts NYC metro in a good spot but reduces precip a great deal for N and W. Concerning for northern folks.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 Sn10_a10
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Post by aiannone on Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:57 pm

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:08 pm

@hyde345 wrote:12z Euro with a SE shift that puts NYC metro in a good spot but reduces precip a great deal for N and W. Concerning for northern folks.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 Sn10_a10

The storm gets kicked out instead of going up through to NE. The block is probably causing that. Too early to say if that's real or not. My guess is the Euro is being too aggressive with that, however I don't see this being a threat beyond SNE.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow is all I can say on these snow maps, I know better than to take them verbatim but the steadfast and consistency and moreso the AGREEMENT this far out of having almost all the same areas and NYC and all around including Long Island could see 15-20+ inches by Thursday is incredible.  I am leaning into the pool to go all in but waiting another day or two, and ugg please don't mention Juno...I remember how crazy that was we completely shutdown here and got like a inche I think, that sustinance or whatever its called killed us.  And the news roasted all meterologists when it was def not their fault.

To be this far out and have this much consensus is either interesting or disconcerting depending on how people wish to perceive it. I agree with you that it is rather impressive and gives me some hope. Cautiously however, as the pieces won't all be sampled for another 24 hours or so.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:26 pm

@aiannone wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 7faa6c10
Wow, 16 inches? I think its obvious when I say I wil ltake that lol, do you know how much of that comes from Monday? And if so does that accumulate at all for the NYC area and just N & W.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:44 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Just something observed today.  More of a Miller A characteristic storm.  They usually bode better for this latitude/longitude than the Miller B which definitely favor NE.  Nothing is set in stone obviously at this range...

The consistency has been the ridge in PNA region, the 50/50 low and the pinned HP in Quebec.  Those synoptically are solid so far...


Love those Miller A's. As you say, they bode better for our area. Basically a Noreaster, no? Used to see storms start out in the northwest, dive down into the gulf and pick up a ton of moisture, then track up the east coast  and drop a bomb on us.

Totally agree. Miller A much higher likelihood of success around here. Due to the strong high to the north it won't take much pressure drop to generate decent wind too. I don't expect this to bomb out without other streams injecting into it, but it really doesn't need to to be prolific.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:53 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Just something observed today.  More of a Miller A characteristic storm.  They usually bode better for this latitude/longitude than the Miller B which definitely favor NE.  Nothing is set in stone obviously at this range...

The consistency has been the ridge in PNA region, the 50/50 low and the pinned HP in Quebec.  Those synoptically are solid so far...


Love those Miller A's. As you say, they bode better for our area. Basically a Noreaster, no? Used to see storms start out in the northwest, dive down into the gulf and pick up a ton of moisture, then track up the east coast  and drop a bomb on us.

Totally agree.  Miller A much higher likelihood of success around here.  Due to the strong high to the north it won't take much pressure drop to generate decent wind too.  I don't expect this to bomb out without other streams injecting into it, but it really doesn't need to to be prolific.
Looking at the 850mb winds I think this could have at least a period of B word potential.
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Post by hyde345 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 3:41 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:12z Euro with a SE shift that puts NYC metro in a good spot but reduces precip a great deal for N and W. Concerning for northern folks.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 Sn10_a10

The storm gets kicked out instead of going up through to NE.  The block is probably causing that.  Too early to say if that's real or not.  My guess is the Euro is being too aggressive with that, however I don't see this being a threat beyond SNE.

The block is definitely responsible and I was surprised by the significant qpf reduction in northern areas after some great 12z model runs but it is an operational after all. The 00z and 12z EPS is very similar.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 12, 2020 4:09 pm

This map...this map right here. It’s making me cry of joy seeing an already closed 500mb trough tracking due east because of all the blocking to its north. Look at that HP!

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 4:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:This map...this map right here. It’s making me cry of joy seeing an already closed 500mb trough tracking due east because of all the blocking to its north. Look at that HP!

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 76cf5710
Presuming this bodes well for a massive storm? You said potential for a Roidzilla, what was that again 12-24? From the models the middle of that seems quite possible for a large area depending on how much of wednesdays maps are including Monday. Nontheless this is great to be tracking something that potentially is going to be great for nearly all on the board, I am hoping precip can be a bit more north for the northern guys but not so much that we rain down here haha
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Post by mmanisca on Sat Dec 12, 2020 4:50 pm

Has anyone noticed JB seems to be unsettled about this low. His thinking is models will correct warmer. Kind of scares me coming from Bastardi...
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Post by Irish on Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:00 pm

@aiannone wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 3 7faa6c10

I will absolutely relish in that 19.2 inches, just a beautiful map!

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:12 pm

@mmanisca wrote:Has anyone noticed JB seems to be unsettled about this low. His thinking is models will correct warmer. Kind of scares me coming from Bastardi...
I had not checked on him, one thing I do know about him, he is either dead wrong or spot on. Yeah thats jarring to say the least. Meanwhile wow my area has 9 to 15 wed and wed night...jeeze
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Post by mmanisca on Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:25 pm

Yeah and the latest run of the gfs is more NW but it’s only a run and will need to chill and not get run crazy. Just a bummer when there’s been so much agreement and consistency
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Post by amugs on Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:34 pm

H5 looked just as good that run, strong HP, more pressing confluence. We'll see what overnight runs bring. Heck it's still a great storm, not spitting out the 20" plus totals but you only want to see those numbers from a Miller A when its gone and we are measuring.

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Post by frank 638 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:40 pm

For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true

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