DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

amugs wrote:EPS is a WOWZA




From Billy @ NSFWx
CIPS top analog for teh 500MB set up is...Dec 5, 2003

You just posted the ensemble snow map lol, 15 inches as a ensemble jesus that means there are some way higher dang!

JMAN, I mean the EURO OP run. It may cause some to melt down in delight and then cry a river when they come up short.

amugs wrote:JMAN,  I mean the EURO OP run. It may cause some to melt down in delight and then cry a river when they come up short.

Someone posted it above lol, we saw it : ) Drool, but I am not banking on 20.1 IMBY, if I get it I will be jumping up an ddown and fall into the tenants below me apartment lol

Normal caveats of long range meso models obviously apply...but the extended RGEM is just an absolute nuke.

I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

All the trimmings...

MattyICE wrote:Normal caveats of long range meso models obviously apply...but the extended RGEM is just an absolute nuke.

where do you find the extended rgem? Yes it doesn't mean much till within 24 hrs or less but still fun to look at anyways.

heehaw453 wrote:All the trimmings...

They slid the band of heavy snow a little further south.

Irish wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:All the trimmings...

They slid the band of heavy snow a little further south.

Yeah. It's pretty consistent with the EPS from 12Z.

MOG, rgem not even near finished at 84 hrs and well....look for yourselves if you wish. As statted though at this range take grain salt. But holy cow. A spot of literally 14mm per hr passes right over me, now that wpould just make up for the past 2 yrs. You rarely see pink snow, and no its not sleet or frz, its the top end of the snow rate. We can only hope thats for real, thiunder snow like janet said possible.

heehaw453 wrote:

Irish wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:All the trimmings...

They slid the band of heavy snow a little further south.

Yeah. It's pretty consistent with the EPS from 12Z.

Models seem pretty consistent about excluding coastal Ocean County and southern coastal Monmouth from the heavy snow totals. Yet, while we remain just outside the jackpot zone, we seem to be more and more securely inside the snow zone. That’s perfect for 48 hrs out. Gotta smell that rain...and then cross our fingers. lol

phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking

jmanley32 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:Normal caveats of long range meso models obviously apply...but the extended RGEM is just an absolute nuke.

where do you find the extended rgem? Yes it doesn't mean much till within 24 hrs or less but still fun to look at anyways.

I just use tidbits. I guess it’s just standard that it goes farther out now than 48 hours. I only use it during winter and this was the first I realized it has extended range now.

MattyICE wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:Normal caveats of long range meso models obviously apply...but the extended RGEM is just an absolute nuke.

where do you find the extended rgem? Yes it doesn't mean much till within 24 hrs or less but still fun to look at anyways.

I just use tidbits. I guess it’s just standard that it goes farther out now than 48 hours. I only use it during winter and this was the first I realized it has extended range now.

yeah i found that now, its nuts, as i said 14 mm rate snow goes right over me verbatim, which i wouldnt take it even until nowcasting but to even break the scale is incredible.

Jeff Smith calling for 6-10 NYC with more to the NW. Good first call.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking

Edison

nutleyblizzard wrote:Jeff Smith calling for 6-10 NYC with more to the NW. Good first call.

Yup but based on things, he'll probably be upping the ante.

phil155 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking

Edison

I've worked in Edison for the last 20 years.

jmanley32 wrote:MOG, rgem not even near finished at 84 hrs and well....look for yourselves if you wish. As statted though at this range take grain salt. But holy cow. A spot of literally 14mm per hr passes right over me, now that wpould just make up for the past 2 yrs.  You rarely see pink snow, and no its not sleet or frz, its the top end of the snow rate.  We can only hope thats for real, thiunder snow like janet said possible.

Im not far from you, and after the last 24 months, i can say this storm if it verified for us. Would absolutely make up for it and then some.

adamfitz1969 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:MOG, rgem not even near finished at 84 hrs and well....look for yourselves if you wish. As statted though at this range take grain salt. But holy cow. A spot of literally 14mm per hr passes right over me, now that wpould just make up for the past 2 yrs.  You rarely see pink snow, and no its not sleet or frz, its the top end of the snow rate.  We can only hope thats for real, thiunder snow like janet said possible.

Im not far from you, and after the last 24 months, i can say this storm if it verified for us. Would absolutely make up for it and then some.

Oh hey yeah love tarrytown, actually if theres any kind of warming you would stand a better chance of stay all snow than me but i think that issue stays far south of us. Yep totally agreed, and I think even on the low end we see 6 plus inches but if SR models start spitting out those numbers and those nuts bands 24 hrs b4 we could be talking roidzilla for some, I know godzilla is whats on take now but roidzilla is not far off especially on such the euro.

Irish wrote:

phil155 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking

Edison

I've worked in Edison for the last 20 years.

Very cool, it is a nice town

phil155 wrote:

Irish wrote:

phil155 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking

Edison

I've worked in Edison for the last 20 years.

Very cool, it is a nice town

So have I, but I've got an extra 10 years on Irish! Do you think they'll call an old fashioned snow day?

NWS for Philly:



...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware along and near the I-95 corridor.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is anticipated to move into the region Wednesday morning and some areas in the watch may mix with sleet and rain. We anticipate there will likely be a sharp gradient in snow totals depending on precipitation type. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

I'm getting more and more impressed with the potential for this storm. That is all I will say. Not going to hype things, but there is enormous potential here.

UUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

EUROOOOOOOOOOO

snowday111 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

Irish wrote:

phil155 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking

Edison

I've worked in Edison for the last 20 years.

Very cool, it is a nice town

So have I, but I've got an extra 10 years on Irish! Do you think they'll call an old fashioned snow day?

Are you in the teaching field? They'll have to call a snow day because of the special programs that might still be in and certainly for the central office staff. Hell, they're still email us the covid checklist for reporting in to school in Sunday nights, even though the majority of the district is full remote. So, if they call a snow day, do we get off or do they just say full remote?

phil155 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking

Edison

Tx..I live in hazlet..you ARE more north..lol..not as close to the coast..tx