DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

H5 looked just as good that run, strong HP, more pressing confluence. We'll see what overnight runs bring. Heck it's still a great storm, not spitting out the 20" plus totals but you only want to see those numbers from a Miller A when its gone and we are measuring.

For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true

Going to be hard for it to tuck too much because of that very impressive high. I'd be more concerned with suppression right now.

I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

frank 638 wrote:For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true

really? on snow maps or from forecasts? My TWC says 1-3 then 8-12, we live very close, so where did you see this?

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

NOOOOOOO, lol jinx word, shhhhh

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Going to be hard for it to tuck too much because of that very impressive high. I'd be more concerned with suppression right now.

Me too, especially northern peeps like myself. GEFS east of op also. Still long way to go.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.

I concur, though my track record has not been great in terms of expressing my being bummed out but if this ends up a 6-12 inch storm even 6-8 I will be more than happy (though George Carlin said this sounds like a serious mental condition "how can you be more than happy?") LOL, 20 would be incredible but I am going to nowcast that. I think you guys will see a definite change this year in my temperment, 2020 has taught me a lot about what I can control and what I cannot, and snow is by far one no one can control, so it is what it is but i am excited regardless the outcome. Long way to go but even the more northern job of the 18z GFS was stilla a very good hit for majority of tristate and well north for CP etc.

Let’s relax and not get our hopes up we know this can change as we saw plenty of times before

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.

I concur, though my track record has not been great in terms of expressing my being bummed out but if this ends up a 6-12 inch storm even 6-8 I will be more than happy (though George Carlin said this sounds like a serious mental condition "how can you be more than happy?") LOL, 20 would be incredible but I am going to nowcast that.

Agree on that philosophy. Seen lots of surprises both good and bad. Try to stay even keeled and hopefully, without banking on it. It is nice to have this on the table. fingers crossed!

Artechmetals wrote:Let’s relax and not get our hopes up we know this can change as we saw plenty of times before

Better words have never been spoken, you cant tell me you arent at least a bit tittilated though lol

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true

really? on snow maps or from forecasts? My TWC says 1-3 then 8-12, we live very close, so where did you see this?

I was watching the news I don’t know her name on channel 11 she had euro model and others And they all showed 15 to 20 inches of snow Of course things can change and it’s not official yet I guess I got excited Now I’m watching Janice from channel 4

Grselig wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.

I concur, though my track record has not been great in terms of expressing my being bummed out but if this ends up a 6-12 inch storm even 6-8 I will be more than happy (though George Carlin said this sounds like a serious mental condition "how can you be more than happy?") LOL, 20 would be incredible but I am going to nowcast that.

Agree on that philosophy.  Seen lots of surprises both good and bad.  Try to stay even keeled and hopefully, without banking on it. It is nice to have this on the table.  fingers crossed!

I glad someone agrees with me. I have so much more to concern with than snow, though I want a storm badly things have been tough though i persevere nonetheless, got to otherwise you crumble.

jmanley32 wrote:

Artechmetals wrote:Let’s relax and not get our hopes up we know this can change as we saw plenty of times before

Better words have never been spoken, you cant tell me you arent at least a bit tittilated though lol

lol I am very excited and I love the snow Just to hear 20 inches I’m very excited I am constantly on my phone

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true

really? on snow maps or from forecasts? My TWC says 1-3 then 8-12, we live very close, so where did you see this?

I was watching the news I don’t know her name on channel 11 she had euro model and others And they all showed 15 to 20 inches of snow Of course things can change and it’s not official yet I guess I got excited Now I’m watching Janice from channel 4

We can get excited as long as we dont piss and moan after, I know some people here cannot handle that who will remain nameless. Just be ready for anything mother nature has in store, good or bad. This may spound weird but I have taken a perspective on weather of how a good storm can be good but how no storm or a bad one can also be good lol, for instance a great storm will be fun but super hard for me to shovel with a medical issue. No storm means no pain. So either way I win!!

I was so excited with an hour of flurries the other day!!  I can not imagine getting anything more than that so ..here's to a little more than flurries!! Just happy we have something to track that is better than what is being tracked every day!!  AND after last 2 seasons of no snow there are multiple rooms in the house that have snow flake projection machines pointed at the ceilings.

Jman I agree with you 100% I just want a big snowstorm LOL

Yes hyde we have seen this many times up our way. Now I live even further north and West then you. The way I am taking this storm don't expect much and hopefully get a surprise.

I really think you guys in NYC metro especially Bronx/Yonkers are in a good spot for this one tbh. People who still have to worry about track changes are central/southern NJ, parts of Long Island, and places more than 50 miles N and W.

jimv45 wrote:Yes hyde we have seen this many times up our way. Now I live even further north and West then you. The way I am taking this storm don't expect much and hopefully get a surprise.

Yes, I would too. You are in Saugerties right? Did you ever take the NWS spotter class?

Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.

Yes in Saugerties and no never did that class yet. This storm coming up i expect a more southern and eastern move but long way to go.

Dunnzoo wrote:Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.

Did he say what he expected for NYC area or is Bergen pretty close to NYC area? I always forget the counties in NJ locations. I too think that the entire area NYC metro west and east look really good atm.

hyde345 wrote:I really think you guys in NYC metro especially Bronx/Yonkers are in a good spot for this one tbh. People who still have to worry about track changes are central/southern NJ, parts of Long Island, and places more than 50 miles N and W.

Hey its about the time for our turn, don't you think? Its been at least 1 or 2 years we have seen this potential, not that I do not want you guys to cash in though, I am rooting for all.

Dunnzoo wrote:Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.

Thanks for the update Janet..Hope you enjoyed your wine yesterday! I will check out the Bernie video and I love Joe and Joe!!

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.

Did he say what he expected for NYC area or is Bergen pretty close to NYC area? I always forget the counties in NJ locations.  I too think that the entire area NYC metro west and east look really good atm.

If you cross the Tappan Zee and head south just across the border, you end up in Bergen County. We are just across the river from the Bronx. Look up Westwood on the map, that's where I am.