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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:41 pm

Going to be hard for it to tuck too much because of that very impressive high. I'd be more concerned with suppression right now.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:51 pm

I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:56 pm

@frank 638 wrote:For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true
really? on snow maps or from forecasts? My TWC says 1-3 then 8-12, we live very close, so where did you see this?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:56 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:57 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great
NOOOOOOO, lol jinx word, shhhhh
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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:58 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Going to be hard for it to tuck too much because of that very impressive high. I'd be more concerned with suppression right now.

Me too, especially northern peeps like myself. GEFS east of op also. Still long way to go.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:00 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.
I concur, though my track record has not been great in terms of expressing my being bummed out but if this ends up a 6-12 inch storm even 6-8 I will be more than happy (though George Carlin said this sounds like a serious mental condition "how can you be more than happy?") LOL, 20 would be incredible but I am going to nowcast that. I think you guys will see a definite change this year in my temperment, 2020 has taught me a lot about what I can control and what I cannot, and snow is by far one no one can control, so it is what it is but i am excited regardless the outcome. Long way to go but even the more northern job of the 18z GFS was stilla a very good hit for majority of tristate and well north for CP etc.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Artechmetals Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:03 pm

Let’s relax and not get our hopes up we know this can change as we saw plenty of times before
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Post by Grselig Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.
I concur, though my track record has not been great in terms of expressing my being bummed out but if this ends up a 6-12 inch storm even 6-8 I will be more than happy (though George Carlin said this sounds like a serious mental condition "how can you be more than happy?") LOL, 20 would be incredible but I am going to nowcast that.

Agree on that philosophy. Seen lots of surprises both good and bad. Try to stay even keeled and hopefully, without banking on it. It is nice to have this on the table. fingers crossed!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:04 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:Let’s relax and not get our hopes up we know this can change as we saw plenty of times before
Better words have never been spoken, you cant tell me you arent at least a bit tittilated though lol
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true
really? on snow maps or from forecasts? My TWC says 1-3 then 8-12, we live very close, so where did you see this?
I was watching the news I don’t know her name on channel 11 she had euro model and others And they all showed 15 to 20 inches of snow Of course things can change and it’s not official yet I guess I got excited Now I’m watching Janice from channel 4

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:06 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if this will be blizzard
Also what about thunder snow that would be great

Suppress expectations and that 20 inch talk, and it's less likely you'll be disappointed.

If you get too carried away you'll be bummed out if it snows 12 inches. Speaking from experience.
I concur, though my track record has not been great in terms of expressing my being bummed out but if this ends up a 6-12 inch storm even 6-8 I will be more than happy (though George Carlin said this sounds like a serious mental condition "how can you be more than happy?") LOL, 20 would be incredible but I am going to nowcast that.

Agree on that philosophy.  Seen lots of surprises both good and bad.  Try to stay even keeled and hopefully, without banking on it. It is nice to have this on the table.  fingers crossed!
I glad someone agrees with me. I have so much more to concern with than snow, though I want a storm badly things have been tough though i persevere nonetheless, got to otherwise you crumble.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:Let’s relax and not get our hopes up we know this can change as we saw plenty of times before
Better words have never been spoken, you cant tell me you arent at least a bit tittilated though lol
lol I am very excited and I love the snow Just to hear 20 inches I’m very excited I am constantly on my phone

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:09 pm

@frank 638 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:For my area I am getting 20 inches of snow I hope this is true
really? on snow maps or from forecasts? My TWC says 1-3 then 8-12, we live very close, so where did you see this?
I was watching the news I don’t know her name on channel 11 she had euro model and others And they all showed 15 to 20 inches of snow Of course things can change and it’s not official yet I guess I got excited Now I’m watching Janice from channel 4
We can get excited as long as we dont piss and moan after, I know some people here cannot handle that who will remain nameless. Just be ready for anything mother nature has in store, good or bad. This may spound weird but I have taken a perspective on weather of how a good storm can be good but how no storm or a bad one can also be good lol, for instance a great storm will be fun but super hard for me to shovel with a medical issue. No storm means no pain. So either way I win!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:11 pm

I was so excited with an hour of flurries the other day!!  I can not imagine getting anything more than that so ..here's to a little more than flurries!! Just happy we have something to track that is better than what is being tracked every day!!  AND after last 2 seasons of no snow there are multiple rooms in the house that have snow flake projection machines pointed at the ceilings.


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:13 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:11 pm

Jman I agree with you 100% I just want a big snowstorm LOL

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Post by jimv45 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:18 pm

Yes hyde we have seen this many times up our way. Now I live even further north and West then you. The way I am taking this storm don't expect much and hopefully get a surprise.

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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:19 pm

I really think you guys in NYC metro especially Bronx/Yonkers are in a good spot for this one tbh. People who still have to worry about track changes are central/southern NJ, parts of Long Island, and places more than 50 miles N and W.
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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:23 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Yes hyde we have seen this many times up our way. Now I live even further north and West then you. The way I am taking this storm don't expect much and hopefully get a surprise.

Yes, I would too. You are in Saugerties right? Did you ever take the NWS spotter class?
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:31 pm

Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jimv45 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:33 pm

Yes in Saugerties and no never did that class yet. This storm coming up i expect a more southern and eastern move but long way to go.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:43 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.
Did he say what he expected for NYC area or is Bergen pretty close to NYC area? I always forget the counties in NJ locations. I too think that the entire area NYC metro west and east look really good atm.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:44 pm

@hyde345 wrote:I really think you guys in NYC metro especially Bronx/Yonkers are in a good spot for this one tbh. People who still have to worry about track changes are central/southern NJ, parts of Long Island, and places more than 50 miles N and W.
Hey its about the time for our turn, don't you think? Its been at least 1 or 2 years we have seen this potential, not that I do not want you guys to cash in though, I am rooting for all.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:58 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.

Thanks for the update Janet..Hope you enjoyed your wine yesterday! I will check out the Bernie video and I love Joe and Joe!!
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:58 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Bernie Rayno is calling for at least a foot for Bergen County, using a blend of the Euro and Canadian. He says forget the GFS and thinks the NAM will be good within 24 hours. Joe Cioffi and Joe Rao will be live on YouTube at 11 am tomorrow if anyone is interested in their take on it.
Did he say what he expected for NYC area or is Bergen pretty close to NYC area? I always forget the counties in NJ locations.  I too think that the entire area NYC metro west and east look really good atm.

If you cross the Tappan Zee and head south just across the border, you end up in Bergen County. We are just across the river from the Bronx. Look up Westwood on the map, that's where I am.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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