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JAN 26th Light Snowfall

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:48 am

I changed the title of the thread as clearly we’re looking at very little snowfall from this storm. But would not shock me if places well N&W get at or above 4 inches like the GFS shows

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_17

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:22 am

Mount Holly's take for now.  I think this is reasonable except NW NJ is probably 4".

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Snow10

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:24 am

Upton's take.

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Upton11

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:31 am

Timing of this could still cause some outsized travel impacts so while its a minor event plan for slower than normal commutes.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:24 am

Seems like the models are trending toward this being more of a Tuesday/Tuesday night event than a Monday into Tuesday AM. That’s why we’ll have to keep an eye on the evening commute. Might just be moving in for the AM rush but could be causing problems for the drive-home.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:37 am

Timing on this has really shifted in a couple days. A few days ago it looked like snow could start as early as Monday evening in spots, but the way it has played out might not see anything until after sunrise Tuesday morning.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:24 am

Probably have 2 chances with this system depending on where you live. One is the WAA which I believe along and SE of I95 is their best shot at accumulating snow. This happens on Tuesday morning. The other shot is when the ULL swings through the area this is about 18 hours later. Like has been said before it's further north than originally modelled. If you are below route 80 that probably won't amount to a hill of beans and will favor NEPA, LHV, and points north.

It's very possible this turns out to be NOTHING more than a coating if you're in the area that doesn't benefit from the WAA and too far south to benefit from the ULL swinging through.

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:41 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Probably have 2 chances with this system depending on where you live.  One is the WAA which I believe along and SE of I95 is their best shot at accumulating snow.  This happens on Tuesday morning.  The other shot is when the ULL swings through the area this is about 18 hours later.  Like has been said before it's further north than originally modelled.  If you are below route 80 that probably won't amount to a hill of beans and will favor NEPA, LHV, and points north.

It's very possible this turns out to be NOTHING more than a coating if you're in the area that doesn't benefit from the WAA and too far south to benefit from the ULL swinging through.  

Yeah I think that “nothing” is me. Lol. I’ve noticed on the modeling the WAA on the front end hitting a brick wall south of me and having to rely on the back end snow from the ULL which is far from prodigious.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:26 am

Models have not AT ALL been handling these storms well. It is simply amazing at this stage of technology that we are about 40 hours out and they can't decide what is what.
GFS shifted the Snow a tad north and we have light snows for hours on end.
JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_14

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:32 am

@billg315 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Probably have 2 chances with this system depending on where you live.  One is the WAA which I believe along and SE of I95 is their best shot at accumulating snow.  This happens on Tuesday morning.  The other shot is when the ULL swings through the area this is about 18 hours later.  Like has been said before it's further north than originally modelled.  If you are below route 80 that probably won't amount to a hill of beans and will favor NEPA, LHV, and points north.

It's very possible this turns out to be NOTHING more than a coating if you're in the area that doesn't benefit from the WAA and too far south to benefit from the ULL swinging through.  

Yeah I think that “nothing” is me. Lol. I’ve noticed on the modeling the WAA on the front end hitting a brick wall south of me and having to rely on the back end snow from the ULL which is far from prodigious.

Yep. I'm fully expecting nothing from this but maybe a coating just to lift the spirits. LOL It really has morphed into dog poop.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:41 am

I'm really surprised DiMartino would be predicting this as per his latest update.  Pretty bullish call here.

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:50 am

@heehaw453 wrote:I'm really surprised DiMartino would be predicting this as per his latest update.  Pretty bullish call here.

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Nynjpa10

I heard another met yesterday who was feeling more bullish than the models, not sure why. I don’t see it right now. But, if you catch the front AND back end that’s a long duration snow, so maybe it has more to do with duration than intensity. Anyway, I’ll be happy with 2” at this point.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:27 pm

One thing we have on our side is the cold overnight temperatures. away from the heat island the ground will be frozen solid so anything that falls should stick. Every model besides the NAM is showing .3 to .4LE. So wherever that is all snow is 3 to 4" which right now is favoring North of the city as the 2nd wave seems to be gaining more latitude with each run. Will see if this reverses the next few cycles similar to what happened with the 1st wave
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:24 pm


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Post by amugs Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:26 pm

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 EsgxayQXcAEI-le?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:28 pm

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 PHI_Snow

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:11 pm

Look at where the Euro has this UL energy now on the PA/NY border.  This is literally 200 miles north than 2 days ago.  Most likely the reason is we really don't have the 50/50 low to pin this down as the low in now towards Greenland.

With this trajectory I feel most of the snow associated with this will this ULL will be just south of I90 corridor.  The upside to this IMO for most will be WAA snow potential.  I think that may be under modelled right now as the ULL being so far north is going to whip in warm air aloft.

RB may have called this a while back. I can't remember but if he did then kudos to him for seeing that 50/50 low going away.

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Euro12

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Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:19 pm

@algae888 wrote:One thing we have on our side is the cold overnight temperatures. away from the heat island the ground will be frozen solid so anything that falls should stick.   Every model besides the NAM  is showing .3 to .4LE.  So wherever that is all snow is 3 to 4" which right now is favoring North of the city as the 2nd wave seems to be gaining more latitude with each run.  Will see if this reverses the next few cycles similar to what happened with the 1st wave

Nam has me (20 miles north of 84) with 1 inch and most other models have 3-4. Right now 2-4 looks like a good call N and W but would not be surprised if end result is 1-2. First opportunity for snow since early January when I picked up 3 inches.
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Post by Irish Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:26 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Look at where the Euro has this UL energy now on the PA/NY border.  This is literally 200 miles north than 2 days ago.  Most likely the reason is we really don't have the 50/50 low to pin this down as the low in now towards Greenland.

With this trajectory I feel most of the snow associated with this will this ULL will be just south of I90 corridor.  The upside to this IMO for most will be WAA snow potential.  I think that may be under modelled right now as the ULL being so far north is going to whip in warm air aloft.  

RB may have called this a while back. I can't remember but if he did then kudos to him for seeing that 50/50 low going away.

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Euro12

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Euro5014

There is a wealth of knowledgeable people on this board but in my time here, rb is the stud of the group. Always seems to be onto things more often and is so intelligent that's he's unintelligible.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:50 pm

Nam  Is 2 to 4" now for the city North and West. With the upper level low gaining more latitude I think will see increase in WAA snows from the 2nd part of this system. Where this sets up is anyone's guess as the models are having a tough time with this system look at what it does for DC 6" of snow for them with the 1st wave no other model has this
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:36 pm

NWS coming inline now with calling this for what it is.  I like this forecast but think that if the WAA doesn't produce then it's a coating below route 80.  Hopefully the northern crew can cash in a bit, but still thinking the better snows are closer to I90. The ULL is just getting too far north I think.

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Post by Irish Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:40 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:NWS coming inline now with calling this for what it is.  I like this forecast but think that if the WAA doesn't produce then it's a coating below route 80.  Hopefully the northern crew can cash in a bit, but still thinking the better snows are closer to I90.  The ULL is just getting too far north I think.

JAN 26th Light Snowfall  - Page 2 Mtholl11

Moving on, stick a fork in this one and thank it for delaying hours possibly screwing things for Thursday.

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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:46 pm

Here's my forecast for Tuesday from the NWS

TuesdaySnow likely before 4pm, then snow and sleet likely, possibly mixed with rain. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tuesday NightSnow and sleet likely, possibly mixed with rain before 1am, then a chance of snow between 1am and 4am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

WednesdayA chance of freezing rain before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Hopefully I can get a little hail and graupel thrown in just so all the bases will be covered.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:06 am

NWS basically mostly concerned with ice on this one now. This is a non event according to them w.r.t. snow and this now looks about right to me.

It's the old adage for snow follow the ULL.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:16 am

Not much to track here. Closing the thread and we’ll carry the conversation on in the January thread

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