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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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01/31 Possible Winter Storm Empty 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:08 pm

I don’t have time for an elaborate write up at this time, but I wanted to make space for us to share our thoughts specific to this Sunday’s possible winter storm. The pattern is conducive for a deepening low pressure to form off our coast.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm 7045b210

01/31 Possible Winter Storm Bef93f10

This is a look at the broader pattern (created by user on Twitter). Besides the Pacific, everything is falling into place the way we would want. Now, the Pacific is not completely failing us. The timing of the trough entering the PAC NW is key because it amplifies the western ridge and the trough upstream. The shortwave on the backside of said trough is modeled to be very potent. A second surface low transfers to the coast because of the blocking directly to our north (we have an HP this time just like the December storm). Also, this is a much colder air mass than what we had in December. Temps leading up to this storm are in the teens and single digits for most. So, ingredients are there. Stage is set. Will this be a prime time show or something an episode of three stooges?

Stay tuned!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:19 pm

This pretty much sums it up on the euro ensembles, the best model to have on our side now from a verification standpoint.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm 1c04d410

01/31 Possible Winter Storm 22858410

As long as this closed 500mb low passes SOUTH of us, we will snow (still mix risk along the shore and SNJ)

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:23 pm

OK, so obviously, there's still a ton of time between now and Sunday. However, what would be the worst case scenario?

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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:26 pm

Thank you so much Frank for your post bring it on finally this quiet and boring weather pattern has woken up

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Post by dkodgis Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:36 pm

I’m all in
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:47 pm

That HP parked over top looks beautiful.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:56 pm

@sroc4 wrote:That HP parked over top looks beautiful.  
Scott reminds me of some very classic storms for the region. No in depth talk but wish it were Saturday.
EPS looks....AMAZING!!

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:05 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:That HP parked over top looks beautiful.  
Scott reminds me of some very classic storms for the region. No in depth talk but wish it were Saturday.
EPS looks....AMAZING!!

If there is one good signal for this storm it’s that the euro And it’s ensembles are on board. Most storms we had hope for this winter the euro insisted on it missing but the CMC and GFS pulled us in.
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Post by Irish Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:06 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:That HP parked over top looks beautiful.  
Scott reminds me of some very classic storms for the region. No in depth talk but wish it were Saturday.
EPS looks....AMAZING!!

So, as I posted above, with many things looking amazing, what could go wrong that would give us the worst outcome?

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:11 pm

TWC currently has snow accumulations for my area at 10-16 inches this far out.

Thoughts on a Zoom being set up for this storm?

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:22 pm

Interesting old bridge isnt that far from here, i mean yeah its not close but thats a huge difference as TWC for NYC metro says 3-9 over course of 2.5 days, not going to be much stickage that light, i guess this may be a jersey special not sure how it misses the NYC area by that much being a big storm but in all honestly TWC changes snow totals more than my daughter changes outfits.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:26 pm

@Irish wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:That HP parked over top looks beautiful.  
Scott reminds me of some very classic storms for the region. No in depth talk but wish it were Saturday.
EPS looks....AMAZING!!

So, as I posted above, with many things looking amazing, what could go wrong that would give us the worst outcome?

Totally Mugsy. Irish. I just don’t see a way for this thing to be suppressed so to me the worst case scenario would be to see trends with the closed upper level low at 500 mb as well as the 700mb and 850mb low trend further north and west. When those closed circles are N and W of the area the wind direction changes. Exactly who sees what depends on just how far N and west it makes it. The thing about this set up is that the air mass in place as this arrives is legitimately Arctic in origin. So worst case scenario would likely vary depending on your location. Coastal plain for you and Me our worst case is a NW trend and mixing issues

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:26 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:That HP parked over top looks beautiful.  
Scott reminds me of some very classic storms for the region. No in depth talk but wish it were Saturday.
EPS looks....AMAZING!!

If there is one good signal for this storm it’s that the euro And it’s ensembles are on board. Most storms we had hope for this winter the euro insisted on it missing but the CMC and GFS pulled us in.  
And watch it does the switcharoo and the opposite is right this time, though I cannot see the Euro (can someone post maps?) the GFS and CMC are both showing good snows for several runs now. GFS has been very steadfast for quite a few runs now. I guess we will see. Gonna stay cautiously optimistic, I can say if its gonna be a big storm this would be the date for it to happen as I am supposed to travel to CT for family and I am not going to get another chance anytime soon so it will likely be a blitz.
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Post by Irish Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Interesting old bridge isnt that far from here, i mean yeah its not close but thats a huge difference as TWC for NYC metro says 3-9 over course of 2.5 days, not going to be much stickage that light, i guess this may be a jersey special not sure how it misses the NYC area by that much being a big storm but in all honestly TWC changes snow totals more than my daughter changes outfits.

That's for damn sure and I'm certainly not going to come close to believing that these will be the final projections. Things will change over and over before Sunday. I'm just happy to see that they're so confident that the system is coming that they'd put totals like that in there.

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:39 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:That HP parked over top looks beautiful.  
Scott reminds me of some very classic storms for the region. No in depth talk but wish it were Saturday.
EPS looks....AMAZING!!

So, as I posted above, with many things looking amazing, what could go wrong that would give us the worst outcome?

Totally Mugsy. Irish. I just don’t see a way for this thing to be suppressed so to me the worst case scenario would be to see trends with the closed upper level low at 500 mb as well as the 700mb and 850mb low trend further north and west. When those closed circles are N and W of the area the wind direction changes. Exactly who sees what depends on just how far N and west it makes it. The thing about this set up is that the air mass in place as this arrives is legitimately Arctic in origin.  So worst case scenario would likely vary depending on your location.  Coastal plain for you and Me our worst case is a NW trend and mixing issues

I'll take that as worst case scenario and am really looking forward to seeing the crew here track this baby over the next few days.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:14 pm

Only the short range models have come out tonight. They don’t go out far enough, but you can tell they’re ready to explode and show the coastal.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:35 pm

Analysis in progress.....this is a nightmare lol

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:37 pm

It literally boils down to a piece of shear vorticity over New England/southeastern Canada - how it behaves, orientation. What could possibly go wrong in forecasting that at five or six days lead?

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:57 pm

@rb924119 wrote:It literally boils down to a piece of shear vorticity over New England/southeastern Canada - how it behaves, orientation. What could possibly go wrong in forecasting that at five or six days lead?
Here we go Mr. Doom and gloom lol jk, interested to hear your thoughts.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:It literally boils down to a piece of shear vorticity over New England/southeastern Canada - how it behaves, orientation. What could possibly go wrong in forecasting that at five or six days lead?
Here we go Mr. Doom and gloom lol jk, interested to hear your thoughts.

Hey, I’m just a messenger - don’t shoot me lmaooo that said, in formulating my thoughts, I’m seeing evidence that I *might be* on the right track, and I’ll be honest, most of us aren’t gonna like what I have to say.

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:14 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:It literally boils down to a piece of shear vorticity over New England/southeastern Canada - how it behaves, orientation. What could possibly go wrong in forecasting that at five or six days lead?
Here we go Mr. Doom and gloom lol jk, interested to hear your thoughts.

Hey, I’m just a messenger - don’t shoot me lmaooo that said, in formulating my thoughts, I’m seeing evidence that I *might be* on the right track, and I’ll be honest, most of us aren’t gonna like what I have to say.

Oh christ, just once I want good news!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:37 pm

GFS and CMC went crazy tonight. The GFS trends tonight were extremely positive. Stronger ridge and better axis, quicker phasing with the northern stream energy, and better positioning with the mid-level lows.


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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:38 pm

@rb924119 wrote:It literally boils down to a piece of shear vorticity over New England/southeastern Canada - how it behaves, orientation. What could possibly go wrong in forecasting that at five or six days lead?

Seems like first flakes could fly Sunday afternoon. Not as far out as you may think!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:38 pm

GFS Ensembles are also much more amplified than 18z

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:40 pm

As the forum starts to get excited about a storm 6-7 days out, rb brings us back to Earth. I hope there will be at least some snow for us all to end the month....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x-fkSYDtUY

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