01/31 Possible Winter Storm

Another thing this has going for it is a H to the north in a good spot.  Do not underestimate that in this setup.

TheAresian wrote:That's both ominous and vague. Would you care to elaborate?

500mb low tracks from the west looking good but is starting to show it halt and begin tracking west of us.  Tucks the sLP track closer to the coast and Brings in the warm air and changes over coastal plain into the lower Hv. I had mentioned earlier about how these systems end up undermodeled in the md range and as we start to get in right the true strength of the system is show. With the blocking relaxing a little is there enough resistance in the atmosphere to keep this oversimplified system from continuing to trend tighter into the coast?  

From a big picture stand point We are currently in a moderately amplified MJo phase that favors a warm push in the east combined with the La Niña influences which looking at the SOI indexes indicates similar. So again the the northern resistance relaxing does it relax too much so that the other atmospheric factors take over.  Let me be clear  I’m not talking about an all out cutter here and warm surge with rain to all but the coastal plain and even into the LHV need to worry about how much change over is seen on Monday.


Add in the fact that ray(rb) has spoken as well

Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

All this being said I believe this is a better setup for I95 and especially NW 95 than December's storm. We shall see.

dsix85 wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

We are at a point now where looking at op models makes sense. The mid level lows are getting close to our latitude and that is a concern for thermal profiles. Most models are showing that. This is complicated too by transfer of energies.

Well, I did well in the December storm so I'll pull for you guys to cash in on this one.

Understood. But I saw Bernie Rayon’s video last night where he explicitly stated that the transfer of energy is key, allowing the low to cut off and hammered the point about that high parked up to our north not retreating.

dsix85 wrote:Understood. But I saw Bernie Rayon’s video last night where he explicitly stated that the transfer of energy is key, allowing the low to cut off and hammered the point about that high parked up to our north not retreating.

The H will help keep the surface colder, but mid-levels will go above freezing if the 700/850 lows get too close to the area. The best probability for mixing is the I95 and points SE at this time. To your point it's too early to know of course, but the possibility exists of a mix.

It it all comes into play the right way, it looks like the snow could be really something.

dsix85 wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

Im not buying any one soln at all, but Euro is known for being the first to sniff out subtle shifts when we get in tight.  As hee haw posted a few back we are in close enough now to start looking at some of the fine tuning.  That said looking at the big picture my concern is that the fine tuning involves the 500/700/850 to be enough of a concern that we get mixing issues on the coast.  There is no doubt the HP is going to be stout and stubborn, but a shift of 50-100miles in where it digs its heals in can be the reason for the primary to gain too much lat before the transfer.  How and, when and where the transfer occurs is dictated by these bigger picture items.  The changes Im talking about are not huge, but as we have stated time and time again a subtle change in the upper and mid levels can mean big changes for your back yard, depending on where you live.  A storm track tucked inside the bench mark, vs on the BM, vs SE of the BM has huge implications for every single person on this board, for better or for worse, with these dynamic set ups.  We are talking about shifts between 25-75 miles that could mean all the diff between 1-3" with slop or 8-12" of eureka, esp along the coastal plain.

phil155 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Also, each video is about 20 minutes. I did a better job this time of keeping them a little shorter than the last one lol I’ll post the links in the morning......or, later in the morning when I get up lol

Where would I find your videos?

He said in one of his posts that he's loading them up and will post them today when he gets up.

TWC has upped totals for my area to 14-20 inches!

The interesting part is that while Sunday temps on there are shown to stay below freezing, temps on Monday are between 33-35, so never hits or drops below freezing. Can it snow with temps above freezing?

Watch for NW ticks today on models and we have weenie ugggghhhh, to then corrected ticks SE and find where it will be heading.Thatbis the question.
The energy comes into ROAB land Friday morning. So ups and downs we go.

Irish wrote:TWC has upped totals for my area to 14-20 inches!

The interesting part is that while Sunday temps on there are shown to stay below freezing, temps on Monday are between 33-35, so never hits or drops below freezing. Can it snow with temps above freezing?

It absolutely can Irish!! The key is to just how shallow or deep the above freezing layer is.

This mornings GFS. It will change of course but we're now 4 days away so we can start to take them a little more seriously.

I would wouldn't pay much attention to TWC app accumulations as they will be all over the place. I've been anywhere from 4-12 to 15-22 to now 8-14 this morning. Who knows.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This mornings GFS. It will change of course but we're now 4 days away so we can start to take them a little more seriously.

I would wouldn't pay much attention to TWC app accumulations as they will be all over the place. I've been anywhere from 4-12 to 15-22 to now 8-14 this morning. Who knows.

So true that TWC is all over the place as it's at 13-20 inches and the GFS just posted is like 6-12 for my area. TWC has been as low as 6. Whatever it is, it'll be a fun ride tracking it.

Still early but I think suppression is far less a concern than the low being too far west allowing some warming. I think the best spots are going to be NW of 95 again. Im not buying CMC solution although I would love to see it happen. I do think coast and nyc metro will mix at some point but it seems most will get significant snows before that happens.

Interesting if it happens I'm at the foot of the Driscoll Bridgein here in Sayreville NJ

I know the apps are not good forecasts but twc has me snowing from sun night to Tuesday morning with totals of 10 to 17. In a 24+ HR period that's a pretty darn light snow to possibly moderate. Or is there going to be big lulls? And if it warms upbeat that kind of slow clip would there even be much stickage, it hate to see that much fall but due to its intensity not stick much.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/nj/ernston/40.4603069,-74.308418

dsix85 wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

Yes, it's important to judge the pattern and not so much the models (as Ray always points out). I don't think there is room for this low to track N&W of us, but that has been the case majority of the time this winter. That's why I posed the question earlier whether this storm will follow the seasonal trend, or will it actually behave as we're hoping to by recognizing the block / confluence and developing a secondary low off our coast. No one knows the answer to this.

heehaw453 wrote:All this being said I believe this is a better setup for I95 and especially NW 95 than December's storm.  We shall see.

I like this set-up better than December, I agree.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This mornings GFS. It will change of course but we're now 4 days away so we can start to take them a little more seriously.

I would wouldn't pay much attention to TWC app accumulations as they will be all over the place. I've been anywhere from 4-12 to 15-22 to now 8-14 this morning. Who knows.

YUP

12z NAM...she is beautiful.

East Coast Winter Storm: upper level jets will unify over the western 2/3s as ridge amplifies. The jet will intensify and drop into the base of the trough, allowing it to amplify and tilt on the East Coast. pic.twitter.com/UT3vMUfBaD

— Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) January 28, 2021

HWO from Upton is up
444 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is the potential for a coastal storm to bring 6 or more inches
of snow to the area late Sunday night into Tuesday. Additionally,
strong northeast winds, coastal flooding, and beach erosion will be
possible. At this time, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with the low track and timing to be specific with details.

Frank- why is this such a long duration event? I feel within 12-24 hours of the storm arriving the start/stop time always speeds up. Any reason why this is different?