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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by dsix85 Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:05 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:05 am

All this being said I believe this is a better setup for I95 and especially NW 95 than December's storm. We shall see.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:08 am

@dsix85 wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

We are at a point now where looking at op models makes sense. The mid level lows are getting close to our latitude and that is a concern for thermal profiles. Most models are showing that. This is complicated too by transfer of energies.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:16 am

Long way to go but I am happy being in the LHV of NY for this .rb feels the blocking is overstated in the modeling and things can creep N and W.Seeing bulls eyes in Central PA, NYC and LI,LOL.Should be a lot of fun seeing how it all plays out.
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Post by TheAresian Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:17 am

Well, I did well in the December storm so I'll pull for you guys to cash in on this one.

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Post by dsix85 Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:17 am

Understood. But I saw Bernie Rayon’s video last night where he explicitly stated that the transfer of energy is key, allowing the low to cut off and hammered the point about that high parked up to our north not retreating.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:27 am

@dsix85 wrote:Understood. But I saw Bernie Rayon’s video last night where he explicitly stated that the transfer of energy is key, allowing the low to cut off and hammered the point about that high parked up to our north not retreating.

The H will help keep the surface colder, but mid-levels will go above freezing if the 700/850 lows get too close to the area. The best probability for mixing is the I95 and points SE at this time. To your point it's too early to know of course, but the possibility exists of a mix.

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Post by dkodgis Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:28 am

It it all comes into play the right way, it looks like the snow could be really something.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:42 am

@dsix85 wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

Im not buying any one soln at all, but Euro is known for being the first to sniff out subtle shifts when we get in tight.  As hee haw posted a few back we are in close enough now to start looking at some of the fine tuning.  That said looking at the big picture my concern is that the fine tuning involves the 500/700/850 to be enough of a concern that we get mixing issues on the coast.  There is no doubt the HP is going to be stout and stubborn, but a shift of 50-100miles in where it digs its heals in can be the reason for the primary to gain too much lat before the transfer.  How and, when and where the transfer occurs is dictated by these bigger picture items.  The changes Im talking about are not huge, but as we have stated time and time again a subtle change in the upper and mid levels can mean big changes for your back yard, depending on where you live.  A storm track tucked inside the bench mark, vs on the BM, vs SE of the BM has huge implications for every single person on this board, for better or for worse, with these dynamic set ups.  We are talking about shifts between 25-75 miles that could mean all the diff between 1-3" with slop or 8-12" of eureka, esp along the coastal plain.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:56 am

@phil155 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Also, each video is about 20 minutes. I did a better job this time of keeping them a little shorter than the last one lol I’ll post the links in the morning......or, later in the morning when I get up lol

Where would I find your videos?

He said in one of his posts that he's loading them up and will post them today when he gets up.

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:02 am

TWC has upped totals for my area to 14-20 inches!

The interesting part is that while Sunday temps on there are shown to stay below freezing, temps on Monday are between 33-35, so never hits or drops below freezing. Can it snow with temps above freezing?

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:06 am

Watch for NW ticks today on models and we have weenie ugggghhhh, to then corrected ticks SE and find where it will be heading.Thatbis the question.
The energy comes into ROAB land Friday morning. So ups and downs we go.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:20 am

@Irish wrote:TWC has upped totals for my area to 14-20 inches!

The interesting part is that while Sunday temps on there are shown to stay below freezing, temps on Monday are between 33-35, so never hits or drops below freezing. Can it snow with temps above freezing?

It absolutely can Irish!! The key is to just how shallow or deep the above freezing layer is.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:49 am

This mornings GFS. It will change of course but we're now 4 days away so we can start to take them a little more seriously.

I would wouldn't pay much attention to TWC app accumulations as they will be all over the place. I've been anywhere from 4-12 to 15-22 to now 8-14 this morning. Who knows.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 3 Gfs_as20
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Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:56 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This mornings GFS. It will change of course but we're now 4 days away so we can start to take them a little more seriously.

I would wouldn't pay much attention to TWC app accumulations as they will be all over the place. I've been anywhere from 4-12 to 15-22 to now 8-14 this morning. Who knows.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 3 Gfs_as20

CP, this syncs up with the EURO pretty closely.Resembles the December storm..Wouldn't be surprised, that's the pattern this year so far.Anyhoo, we sit in a good spot on both models ATM.
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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:05 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This mornings GFS. It will change of course but we're now 4 days away so we can start to take them a little more seriously.

I would wouldn't pay much attention to TWC app accumulations as they will be all over the place. I've been anywhere from 4-12 to 15-22 to now 8-14 this morning. Who knows.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 3 Gfs_as20

So true that TWC is all over the place as it's at 13-20 inches and the GFS just posted is like 6-12 for my area. TWC has been as low as 6. Whatever it is, it'll be a fun ride tracking it.

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Post by hyde345 Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:17 am

Still early but I think suppression is far less a concern than the low being too far west allowing some warming. I think the best spots are going to be NW of 95 again. Im not buying CMC solution although I would love to see it happen. I do think coast and nyc metro will mix at some point but it seems most will get significant snows before that happens.
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Post by hurrysundown23 Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:25 am

Interesting if it happens I'm at the foot of the Driscoll Bridgein here in Sayreville NJ

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:26 am

I know the apps are not good forecasts but twc has me snowing from sun night to Tuesday morning with totals of 10 to 17. In a 24+ HR period that's a pretty darn light snow to possibly moderate. Or is there going to be big lulls? And if it warms upbeat that kind of slow clip would there even be much stickage, it hate to see that much fall but due to its intensity not stick much.
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Post by hurrysundown23 Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:30 am

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/nj/ernston/40.4603069,-74.308418

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:36 am

@dsix85 wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong, but being that we are 3ish days out why would be buy into any model solution- won’t the windshield wiper effect be in play really until models get a good consensus on the track within 24-48 hours of showtime?

Yes, it's important to judge the pattern and not so much the models (as Ray always points out). I don't think there is room for this low to track N&W of us, but that has been the case majority of the time this winter. That's why I posed the question earlier whether this storm will follow the seasonal trend, or will it actually behave as we're hoping to by recognizing the block / confluence and developing a secondary low off our coast. No one knows the answer to this.

@heehaw453 wrote:All this being said I believe this is a better setup for I95 and especially NW 95 than December's storm.  We shall see.

I like this set-up better than December, I agree.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This mornings GFS. It will change of course but we're now 4 days away so we can start to take them a little more seriously.

I would wouldn't pay much attention to TWC app accumulations as they will be all over the place. I've been anywhere from 4-12 to 15-22 to now 8-14 this morning. Who knows.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 3 Gfs_as20

YUP

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:39 am

12z NAM...she is beautiful.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 3 500hv.conus

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:47 am


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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:54 am

HWO from Upton is up
444 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is the potential for a coastal storm to bring 6 or more inches
of snow to the area late Sunday night into Tuesday. Additionally,
strong northeast winds, coastal flooding, and beach erosion will be
possible. At this time, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with the low track and timing to be specific with details.
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Post by dsix85 Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:57 am

Frank- why is this such a long duration event? I feel within 12-24 hours of the storm arriving the start/stop time always speeds up. Any reason why this is different?

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