February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Just brutal. I feel for you. As much as I love it down there even when I’m there in the winter the NJ barrier islands are no place for a snow lover, that’s for sure. lol.

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Wow

dual pol shows the r/s line is north of cape may

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

The mid-levels seem plenty cold to support snow now.  I'm shocked you'd be raining.

Low-level warmth. Strong onshore fetch off a warm ocean doesn’t take long.

What's your surface temp?

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Wow

dual pol shows the r/s line is north of cape may

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

Yeah. But an east wind off a warm ocean does magical things lol

Yup...

jmanley32 wrote:I am not concerned about a lull as theres nothing coming down yet....but I will trust you Frank that this isn't bad as you posted earlier.  Though bands are coming through so I dunno where the snow is.

it finally started by me light snow now in throggs neck

Frank_Wx wrote:Not that it matter at this point but the 18z EURO just printed out even higher snow amounts than 12z

It kinda matters as we are still 12-24 hrs to the middle of this storm and 24+ hrs to the end. crazy to realize that. Maps?

Frank_Wx wrote:

wow 50-75 mm, that translates to a high point of almost 30 inches!!

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:( At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

That means I don't have too much longer till a changeover. Across the bay from you. Still snow at about 7:05pm.

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Just brutal. I feel for you. As much as I love it down there even when I’m there in the winter the NJ barrier islands are no place for a CURSED snow lover, that’s for sure. lol.

There, I fixed it for you hahaha it’s all good. There’s nothing I can do about it, and it’s been a hell of a fun track to be a part of. If I have to sacrifice so the 95% of you guys can have fun, then that’s a trade I can live with. Living in NEPA has given me several events that you guys never had, so what’s fair is fair haha however, my disappointment would be fixed if I could manage to trade the snow for a verified forecast no snow + a verified forecast = a busted forecasted forecast + snow, BUT IS OBVIOUSLY < a verified forecast + snow lmfaoooo

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Wow

dual pol shows the r/s line is north of cape may

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

The mid-levels seem plenty cold to support snow now.  I'm shocked you'd be raining.

Low-level warmth. Strong onshore fetch off a warm ocean doesn’t take long.

What's your surface temp?

By feel, I’d say probably up to 35-37° after the change, but I’ll confirm momentarily.

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Wow

dual pol shows the r/s line is north of cape may

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

The mid-levels seem plenty cold to support snow now.  I'm shocked you'd be raining.

Low-level warmth. Strong onshore fetch off a warm ocean doesn’t take long.

What's your surface temp?

By feel, I’d say probably up to 35-37° after the change, but I’ll confirm momentarily.

Temp on the barrier islands in Cape May County, probably similar to LBI is currently 35* with rain.

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Wow

dual pol shows the r/s line is north of cape may

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

The mid-levels seem plenty cold to support snow now.  I'm shocked you'd be raining.

Low-level warmth. Strong onshore fetch off a warm ocean doesn’t take long.

What's your surface temp?

By feel, I’d say probably up to 35-37° after the change, but I’ll confirm momentarily.

Looks my temperature taking skills are on par hahaha

The snow has commenced.

Frank_Wx wrote:

wow can we see a snow map just for s & g, i do not have access to the off runs of Euro. Pivotol wx doesnt have them, stingy site.

Look across PA / NJ and that tight gradient between the dry punch and moisture. That will be the dividing line overnight tonight for good snow making vs. not. Keep an eye on this if you live N/W of PHL. pic.twitter.com/C5I0IBtsHW

— Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) February 1, 2021

Current rain snow line almost up to Atlantic City now. pic.twitter.com/iMydIUzSV8

— Climate and weather guy (@NJSnowPatriot) February 1, 2021

18z euro snow map

Remember that this does not include what's already fallen, and honestly, the euro is underdone for some places across NNJ because it's not matching to the current radar very well

Actually under a heavy cell you can sort of make out ahead of this line currently, but wondering how rates are in this approaching line.

Frank_Wx wrote:

The storm seems to get better organized and stronger with each run. Not surprised because the ULL looks pretty healthy to me. The banding could be really a sight to behold tomorrow.

first flakes falling in Western Suffolk county Long Island

18z GFS

GFS through 60 hours leaves nothing to the imagination. Blockbuster event. pic.twitter.com/XCVOtaZh62

— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 1, 2021

billg315 wrote:Actually under a heavy cell you can sort of make out ahead of this line currently, but wondering how rates are in this approaching line.

They're nice. Probably 1" per hour or close to that.

Light snow ️

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Well that was fun. Storm total of less than a half inch, now raining:(   At least I’ll be able to get to sleep early tonight tonight so I can hit the weights early tomorrow morning before work lol

Wow

dual pol shows the r/s line is north of cape may

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

The mid-levels seem plenty cold to support snow now.  I'm shocked you'd be raining.

Low-level warmth. Strong onshore fetch off a warm ocean doesn’t take long.

What's your surface temp?

By feel, I’d say probably up to 35-37° after the change, but I’ll confirm momentarily.

Looks my temperature taking skills are on par hahaha

I remember people on the South Shore of LI telling me if the winds are from the aren't from the northeast during a storm, then they rain regardless of the antecedent air mass. always thought that was crazy, but probably true.

Frank_Wx wrote:18z GFS

GFS through 60 hours leaves nothing to the imagination. Blockbuster event. pic.twitter.com/XCVOtaZh62

— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 1, 2021

I like that 24.6!