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February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

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Post by brownie Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:51 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Just measured.INCH(measured again)..and we just got the sad call..School will be VIRTUAL tom..listen I have a teenager..but wow..all the little kids with their rituals of pj's inside out waiting for that snow day..just sad..
My school has an actual snow day tomorrow, which is the right thing to do.  We had a real snow day back in December as well.

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Post by Gator99 Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:51 pm

Greenpoint, Brooklyn: 25.7 degrees, light snow just started and is already sticking.

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Post by mwilli Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:53 pm

few flakes falling in times Sq now

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:54 pm

@amugs wrote:February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 Namconus_asnow_neus_21

I wish I could give this ten likes.
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Post by Fededle22 Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:58 pm

Is there any model that is best depicting what the storm is doing now so we can put more credence in that model. At this point I'm guess we are more nowcasting and short range models. Just wondering. This has been awesome to track and read all the expert analysis.

BTW, we just got the school call and both my teenage boys have school tomorrow via zoom.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:00 pm

Nws wsw just upped me to 16 to 22 wow we I'm higher than a kite right now!! Not that kind of high. Just elated. If for some reason it doesn't work out I'll try my best to just report and not complsin like in past years. It is what it is. I can't change the outcome. But I feel fairly confident in these totals even the higher amounts.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:00 pm

Here is the 500mb ULL.  That is going to be critical on exactly where it reaches the coast and how it interacts with the mid-level lows.  Nothing is set in stone with that complex interaction. But just 2.5 days ago this was forecast to be lower latitude and give us no WAA snows.  I'd take my chance on the balling ball rolling through then have it dive too deep.

This energy staying strong is probably going to juice this storm up IMO.

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 Ull11

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:06 pm

@billg315 wrote:I have to say major props to algae and heehaw. Last weekend when many of us, ahem (me included), were focused on the system last Monday that fizzled and the one Thursday that never was, algae kept saying he was more interested in the 1/31-2/1 system. And heehaw kept asking if anyone else was as intrigued by the impressive setup for this system as he was. Those guys sniffed this out for what it seems to be waaaay in advance. I know others had their eye on this too (like mugs, Frank and sroc) but I just remember algae and heehaw harping on this event.
Tks bill. As heehaw stated we have been in a good pattern.  The problem was that the Greenland block was to far south and systems were not able to amplify. The block has now relaxed enough to get this storm further nort and not sheared. Historically we do well when the nao relaxes
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:18 pm

All the WSW were upped in snow totals, now many are 16-22 or 18-24, eastern toip LI is 5-14 which is a pretty big spread, winds gusting to 60mph there, 45-50mph elsewhere along coast and 35mph inland. Not sure why with the update they did not issue blizzard warnings, guess they won't cal lthem or they wait till morning, which is kinda crazy if its warranted which I know it is. Not that it makes any difference in the snow or winds but I always love saying hey im in a blizzard warning lol


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:20 pm

22* with moderate snow here. Dewpoint 18* and Wind Chill of 14* Snow looks nice in the lights as darkness descends. Can't wait to see what tomorrow's daylight brings!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:20 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 Namconus_asnow_neus_21

I wish I could give this ten likes.
It is a thing of beauty is it snowing  up by you..snowing steadyly down here 25* no wind yet
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Post by adamfitz1969 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:23 pm

The national weather service calls....all in.

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 Nws_go10

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:26 pm

Current radar. Impressive snow field in front of this primary Low. Nice stage setter for the coastal transfer.
February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 8a314f10
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Post by mmanisca Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:28 pm

18z gfs less bullish on LI
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:28 pm

The GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 0EEDAB15-792E-44F2-A3C4-B089945DF3C6.png.7a6fde85f18fe059286f934b0c0287a2

_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:35 pm

The National Weather Service here in Albany has me getting 6-10" of snow from this system,

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Post by adamfitz1969 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:35 pm

ICON goes nutsFebruary 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 Icon_g10

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm

@amugs wrote:The GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 0EEDAB15-792E-44F2-A3C4-B089945DF3C6.png.7a6fde85f18fe059286f934b0c0287a2

20 likes.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:52 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:The GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 0EEDAB15-792E-44F2-A3C4-B089945DF3C6.png.7a6fde85f18fe059286f934b0c0287a2

20 likes.

If there was a K -uchera model for "Likes" it would show 35 likes for you.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:53 pm

Still nothing here yet, the dry air is holding tough, but looks like some heavier returns are moving in so hopefully that will allow for it to start.
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Post by Snownyc Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:55 pm

Jeff smith said he really don’t think the warm air makes it to nyc and he might have to bring the 18 /24alot closer to city

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:56 pm

Current radar Reports coming in from NJ Spotters.

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 5 2-1-2110
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Post by larryrock72 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:56 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:That band brought Bayville NJ our first measurable inch of snow since December 2019. Looks another one might be rolling in. All the kids on the block been playing for 2 hours already. Probably at 1.5" so far.

Are you kidding me SENJ that there has been no measurable snowfall down there in 14 months?  That has to be a record of some kind then.  Well congrats and hopefully many more inches of the white gold come your way!
I can verify that. Living 10 or so miles south of snowman. Enough snow to get in some sleigh riding for an hour with the kids.

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Post by Irish Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:57 pm

Feel like we have about 2 OTG here.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:58 pm

Light flurries by me

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