Re: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

by Gator99 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:25 pm

Greenpoint, Brooklyn, 24.1 degrees: Not much going on here, very light, very wet, snow falling. Ground sparsely covered.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:30 pm

This 35dbz band coming through CNJ is puking snow not even part of the transfer coastal low pressure. 1-2.5" per hour rates
February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 13 CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210201-0313-24-100.gif.c680fd2e865c08c00ca825b0a161cc9e

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 13 CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0Q-20210201-0313-24-100.gif.c680fd2e865c08c00ca825b0a161cc9e

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:31 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Rgem also snows until early Wednesday. [/quote
That is one long duration snow

55 more hours get ready

by Zhukov1945 Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:33 pm

amugs wrote:This 35dbz band coming through CNJ is puking snow not even part of the transfer coastal low pressure. 1-2.5" per hour rates

I assume that the dry area around Philly starting to fill in has to do with the transfer to the coastal...

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:33 pm

4.25 inches...very fine flakes..coming down pretty hard..

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:33 pm

RGEM is da crusher and better and better run each time

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 13 922685489_RGEM1.png.cb076d4e3f2806e1759c1099b73235ae

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 13 922685489_RGEM1.png.cb076d4e3f2806e1759c1099b73235ae

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:34 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
amugs wrote:This 35dbz band coming through CNJ is puking snow not even part of the transfer coastal low pressure. 1-2.5" per hour rates

I assume that the dry area around Philly starting to fill in has to do with the transfer to the coastal...

Yes and it's filling in fast which is a good sign with some yellow cells

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:37 pm

amugs wrote:
Zhukov1945 wrote:
amugs wrote:This 35dbz band coming through CNJ is puking snow not even part of the transfer coastal low pressure. 1-2.5" per hour rates

I assume that the dry area around Philly starting to fill in has to do with the transfer to the coastal...
Yes and it's filling in fast which is a good sign with some yellow cells

its snowing pretty goodhere, everything is covered roads and its a very light fluffy snow. I think its colder than expected. That band western side is headed right here.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:41 pm

rgem without ratios gives me nearly 2 feet wow.

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:41 pm

amugs wrote:This 35dbz band coming through CNJ is puking snow not even part of the transfer coastal low pressure. 1-2.5" per hour rates

And it's puking on my head right now! cheers

by **Irish** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:42 pm

amugs wrote:This 35dbz band coming through CNJ is puking snow not even part of the transfer coastal low pressure. 1-2.5" per hour rates

I can confirm.

by **frank 638** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:47 pm

Looks like an 1 inch of snow so far The intensity has lLighten up a little bit. I noticed the winds are starting to pick up

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:48 pm

It's forming, the beast is coming alive, spawning
February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 13 Pmsl

by **dkodgis** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:01 pm

Somewhere Othelia the Groundhog is saying “I delivered the goods

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:05 pm

amugs wrote:RGEM is da crusher and better and better run each time

Good Lord I'll never sleep tonight. This can't possibly live up to the expectations, but I can't wait until tomorrow and Tuesday to see.

by **aiannone** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:09 pm

Around an inch here And steady snow. Going to bed, resting up for the big show tmw. Night all

by **Irish** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:14 pm

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 13 Screen18

Check out the GFS. CCB reforms on Tuesday. Legit snows now being modeled throughout Tuesday, widespread an extra 4-8".

Thoughts on this?

by **2004blackwrx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:23 pm

finally some flurries

by **hyde345** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:26 pm

Irish wrote:

Check out the GFS. CCB reforms on Tuesday. Legit snows now being modeled throughout Tuesday, widespread an extra 4-8".

Thoughts on this?

Most models have it snowing until late Tuesday/early wednesday possibly.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:29 pm

Deep Green radar colors are 1-2" per hour snows
February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 13 Inxr1Knyca_h

by **Irish** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:35 pm

hyde345 wrote:
Irish wrote:

Check out the GFS. CCB reforms on Tuesday. Legit snows now being modeled throughout Tuesday, widespread an extra 4-8".

Thoughts on this?

Most models have it snowing until late Tuesday/early wednesday possibly.

Right, but first I've seen of getting another 4-8 additional inches, thought it would be maybe 1. That's like another storm by itself!

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:53 pm

Watching Lonnie sleeves up..says blizzard like conditions tomorrow worried about power outages..but low on his numbers according to what we are seeing on the models here on the forumn

by Gator99 Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:16 am

Greenpoint, Brooklyn: Steady light to moderate snow, about two inches on the ground; very light, easy to shovel. Dog couldn't be happier.

by **algae888** Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:27 am

At work in the Bronx 2" so far snowing heavily

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:34 am

Finished up with 5.5/6 inches on the front end.
Light rain/sleet/snow mix at the present. R/S line fighting hard in both directions to creep up the shore. Until I see hard rain, im probably gonna stay up and check things out...

by **Taffy** Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:57 am

Still waiting for the snow to start. "They" say 16" with some rates 2" an hour. We shall see. Meanwhile, I move to the Snow Capitol and you guys have been getting the good stuff.

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:28 am

rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I have some ponderances based on my observations of current radar trends and broad recollection of the general evolution of the modeling. The first image is a current radar image with the overlays of where I think current banding is indicating the eventual development of quasi-stationary, pivoting banding features (in red). The northern one should become established BEFORE the southern one, as it will be forced by the general large-scale deformation/frontogenesis. The southern one will be associated with the maturing low- and mid-level cyclones tomorrow.

The second image depicts how I think these same bands will orient themselves before becoming quasi-stationary as the the storm matured and then occludes, before they begin to then expand away as the system decays.

The area in red between the two bands denotes where there will likely be a period of subsidence as the first band begins to rotate a little further north before the secondary band becomes established to recover. That region would then shift a bit further west-northwest during the maturation and occlusion processes. So, these two areas are where I think we may see the best totals, BUT THIS IS SOLELY MY OPINION BASED ON WHAT IM SEEING IN THE RADAR TRENDS WITH SOME PREVIOUS THOUGHTS MIXED IN. I’m testing a hypothesis here that you can pick out areas of *preferred* banding tendencies based on certain radar/early precipitation trends. Will be fun to watch evolve at the very least.

Bump. I want to keep this current to see how it compares to reality. So far, so good.

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